Risk and behavior: The mediating role of risk appraisal

The main issue of this paper concerns the mediating role of risk appraisal in the relation between past and future behavior. We expected previous risky behavior to heighten risk appraisal, which, in turn, should stimulate preventive behavior. Results ofthree tests of this mediation hypothesis showed that past behavior was strongly related to future behavior; people who behaved hazardously in the past indicated that they tend to do so in the future. Generally, the expected relation between past behavior and risk appraisal was supported. More risky behavior in the past was associated with a heightened risk appraisal. Results also indicate a relation between risk appraisal and future behavior, but in the opposite direction as predicted. Heightened risk appraisal was related to increased levels of risk in future behavior. When predicting future behavior by both risk appraisal and past behavior the effect of risk appraisal on future behavior disappeared, while past behavior remained a strong predictor of future behavior. In a few cases risk appraisal still predicted future behavior when past behavior was controlled for. Unfortunately, these cases showed the opposite relation; i.e., heightened risk appraisal was related to more risky future behavior. Implications of these findings for research on the role of risk appraisal will be discussed.     

Cognitive Biases in Playing the Lottery: Estimating the Odds and Choosing the Numbers

Three experiments were conducted to examine the operation of the representativeness and anchoring and adjustment heuristics in lottery play. Subjects in Experiments 1 and 2 indicated their chances of winning a lottery with an objective probability of 1 in 10. Consistent with the anchoring and adjustment heuristic, subjects (in both experiments) perceived their chances of winning to be greater when the lottery was based on a single event than when it was based on a disjunctive event. Subjects in these two experiments also selected numbers to play in a pick-3 (Experiment 1) or pick-4 (Experiment 2) lottery. Consistent with the representativeness heuristic, subjects in Experiment 2 demonstrated a preference for numbers without repeating digits. This also occurred in Experiment 3 wherein the numbers actually played in the Indiana daily Pick-3 lottery were examined.     

The Discrediting Effect in Eyewitness Testimony1

Loftus (1974) had subjects read summaries of criminal trials that contained the testimony of either credible or discredited prosecution eyewitnesses, and found no effect of discrediting an eyewitness. Instead, almost as many subjects voted guilty with a discredited eyewitness as with a credible eyewitness; this led Loftus to the conclusion that jurors tend to overbelieve eyewitness testimony. Loftus's conclusion was subsequently challenged by others who reported a strong discrediting effect. A series of three experiments using college students was conducted to explore the characteristics of trial summaries that might account for the discrepancy in results, such as inclusion of judicial instructions concerning proof beyond a reasonable doubt, or an eyewitness's reaffirmation of his testimony following discrediting. In all cases, a strong discrediting effect was found. Apparently the discrediting effect appears regardless of wide variation in content of trial summaries. The present data do not support the overbelief claim.     

No counterregulation after breaking the external restraint of children.

At the present, it is unknown how restraint and binge eating/counterregulation are exactly related. Earlier studies on this relationship suffer from two main shortcomings: the studies are all correlational in nature or could not rule out the contribution of confounding variables such as weight loss. The present study investigated whether a break of restraint is a sufficient condition for the occurrence of counterregulation by studying a restrained sample which is not liable to dieting practices and weight loss. The externally imposed restraint on children with regard to eating sweets was broken. However, after breaking their external restraint the children did not counterregulate. It is discussed whether restraint of food intake is really as important for binge eating as it is claimed to be or whether it is merely a consequence or an epiphenomenon of binge eating.     

Origins of fear of dogs in adults and children: the role of conditioning processes and prior familiarity with dogs.

One hundred adults and 30 children completed questionnaires to investigate fear of dogs. Dog fearful adults asked to recall the origins of their fear reported classical conditioning experiences more frequently than vicarious acquisition or informational transmission. Overall, however, there was no difference in the frequency of attacks reported by the fearful and non-fearful groups. Significantly more fearful than non-fearful adults reported little contact with dogs prior to the onset of their fear which suggests that early non-eventful exposure to dogs may prevent a conditioning event from producing a dog phobia. Most adults reported that their fear began in childhood, and dog fear were more frequently reported by children than by adults. In the aggregate, however, dog-fearful adults and children differed in several ways; children were more likely than adults to report having received warnings about dogs, but also to recognize the potential attractiveness of a friendly dog. Unlike dog-fearful children, dog-fearful adults reported many other fears in addition to their fear of dogs. A better understanding of fear of dogs in adults may depend on discovering why some dog-fearful children, but not others, apparently lose their fear of dogs as they become older.     

Surface perception in pictures.

Subjects adjusted a local gauge figure such as to perceptually "fit" the apparent surfaces of objects depicted in photographs. We obtained a few hundred data points per session, covering the picture according to a uniform lattice. Settings were repeated 3 times for each of 3 subjects. Almost all of the variability resided in the slant; the relative spread in the slant was about 25% (Weber fraction). The tilt was reproduced with a typical spread of about 10 degrees. The rank correlation of the slant settings of different observers was high, thus the slant settings of different subjects were monotonically related. The variability could be predicted from the scatter in repeated settings by the individual observers. Although repeated settings by a single observer agreed within 5%, observers did not agree on the value of the slant, even on the average. Scaling factors of a doubling in the depth dimension were encountered between different subjects. The data conformed quite well to some hypothetical fiducial global surface, the orientation of which was "probed" by the subject's local settings. The variability was completely accounted for by single-observer scatter. These conclusions are based upon an analysis of the internal structure of the local settings. We did not address the problem of veridicality, that is, conformity to some "real object."     

Imputation of missing categorical data by maximizing internal consistency

This paper suggests a method to supplant missing categorical data by reasonable replacements. These replacements will maximize the consistency of the completed data as measured by Guttman's squared correlation ratio. The text outlines a solution of the optimization problem, describes relationships with the relevant psychometric theory, and studies some properties of the method in detail. The main result is that the average correlation should be at least 0.50 before the method becomes practical. At that point, the technique gives reasonable results up to 10–15% missing data.We thank Anneke Bloemhoff of NIPG-TNO for compiling and making the Dutch Life Style Survey data available to use, and Chantal Houée and Thérèse Bardaine, IUT, Vannes, France, exchange students under the COMETT program of the EC, for computational assistance. We also thank Donald Rubin, the Editors and several anonymous reviewers for constructive suggestions.     

A developmental evaluation of the role of word shape in word recognition

Fourth- and seventh-grade children and college-age adults proofread passages typed either in lowercase or in all capital letters. Words were misspelled by deleting one of four letters, s, c, k, or p, that have similar features in lowercase and uppercase. Proofreading errors decreased with age and increasing reading ability, but all of the subjects were sensitive to changes in word shape--they missed more words with deletions of s or c than k or p in the lowercase passage but not in the all-capitals passage. These findings indicate that word shape is an important variable in recognizing familiar words, even for young readers.