Knowledge,certainty and probability

In this essay, I discuss some of the important logical principles governing the concepts of knowledge, certainty and probability. In the first section, I suggest a series of definitions of epistemic terms, employing as primitive the locution ‘p is epistemi‐cally possible to S’ In the second section, I develop an epistemic concept of probability and compare it to the concepts of certainty and knowledge. In the third section, I relate the epistemic concepts of certainty and probability to the quantifiers of traditional logic and to a non‐episteznic concept of probability. I conclude by noting similarities and differences between the two concepts of probability.     

I. Mathematical modeling of election predictions: Final reply to professor Aubert

Professor Aubert's ‘three‐stage rocket’ (Inquiry, Vol. 26 [1983], No. 1) has reached periodic orbit. His comments on my earlier reply to his critique of my election predictions paper simply repeat arguments I have already refuted. In this note, I limit myself largely to pointing out Professor Aubert's misconceptions of what my position actually is. I find no reasons for revising the views stated in my original election predictions paper, nor any reasons for thinking that paper violated norms of scientific method that prevail in the natural sciences.     

Probability and knowledge: A reply to Miss Weyland

An attempt is made to find a coherent verbal expression of the intuition that reality is a manifold of more or less comprehensive wholes (gestalts), all discernible in terms of qualities. Quantitative natural science is thought to describe abstract structures of reality, not contents. The qualities are neither subjective nor objective, they belong to concrete contents with structures comprising at least three abstract relata: object, subject, and medium. Their status is that of entia rationis, not content of reality. Recent developments in physics suggest that we shall look in vain for physical ‘things’ of which reality is composed. Adequate expressions of concrete contents form designations rather than declarative sentences. They may obviously contain value terms. The attempt to formulate an ontology along the suggested lines seems to be closely related to phenomenology of a Heideggerian rather than Cartesian kind. It serves the endeavour to change the conception of the man‐nature relationship.     

Cross-ethnic friendships,psychological well-being,and academic outcomes: Study of South Asian and White children in the UK

We examined whether two interpersonal processes, self-disclosure and affirmation of ideal self, mediated the relationship between cross-ethnic friendships and psychological well-being and academic outcomes. We conducted a cross-sectional survey with 484 secondary school children (243 White European, 241 South Asian British; M_age = 11.10, 220 boys, 264 girls) recruited from 35 multiethnic classrooms. Results of multilevel structural equation modeling revealed mediational effects of self-disclosure between cross-ethnic friendships and psychological well-being for only South Asian children. Affirmation also mediated the association between cross-ethnic friendships and both psychological well-being and academic outcomes for South Asian children. For White European children, affirmation mediated the association between cross-ethnic friendships and psychological well-being. Further analyses demonstrated that self-disclosure resulting from cross-ethnic friendship quality facilitated affirmation, which in turn promoted both sets of outcomes. Findings demonstrate that cross-ethnic friendships in multiethnic settings contribute to well-being through the generation of positive interpersonal processes.     

Complementary Variable- and Person-Centered Approaches to the Dimensionality of Psychometric Constructs: Application to Psychological Wellbeing at Work

Purpose

This study illustrates complementary variable- and person-centered approaches allowing for a more complete investigation of the dimensionality of psychometric constructs. Psychometric measures often assess conceptually related facets of global overarching constructs based on the implicit or explicit assumption that these overarching constructs exist as global entities including conceptually related specificities mapped by the facets. Proper variable- and person-centered methodologies are required to adequately reflect the dimensionality of these constructs.

Design/Methodology/Approach

We illustrate these approaches using employees’ (N = 1077) ratings of their psychological wellbeing at work.

Findings

The results supported the added value of the variable-centered approach proposed here, showing that employees’ ratings of their own wellbeing simultaneously reflect a global overarching wellbeing construct, together with a variety of specific wellbeing dimensions. Similarly, the results show that anchoring person-centered analyses into these variable-centered results helps to achieve a more precise depiction of employees’ wellbeing profiles.

Implications

The variable-centered bifactor exploratory structural equation modeling (ESEM) framework provides a way to fully explore these sources of psychometric multidimensionality. Similarly, whenever constructs are characterized by the co-existence of overarching constructs with specific dimensions, it becomes important to properly disaggregate these two components in person-centered analyses. In this context, person-centered analyses need to be clearly anchored in the results of preliminary variable-centered analyses.

Originality/Value

Substantively, this study proposes an improved representation of employees’ wellbeing at work. Methodologically, this study aims to pedagogically illustrate the application of recent methodological innovations to organizational researchers.

     

Measuring procedural imitation aptitude in children: further validation of the Preschool Imitation and Praxis Scale (PIPS)

The Preschool Imitation and Praxis Scale (PIPS) was developed to measure bodily and procedural imitation aptitude in young children. However, the investigation of procedural imitation is more complex than that of bodily imitation. The procedural imitation tasks of the PIPS mainly consisted of unusual acts upon objects (for example, switching on a lamp in a toy animal with the forehead). This study assessed the suitability of these tasks by ruling out nonimitative learning in 15 typically developing children between 12 and 55 mo. of age (6 girls, 9 boys). Results indicated that the tasks seem novel and unlikely to be performed spontaneously by the children. In addition, the number of target acts performed by the children in the imitation condition was significantly higher than in the baseline, investigator-manipulation, and imitation-enhancement nonimitative control conditions. Finally, the tasks elicited more frequently imitative behaviour than end-state emulation. Therefore, the tasks appear appropriate to measure procedural imitation, and the findings support the theoretical validity of the PIPS.     

The effect of language cues on infants' representational flexibility in a deferred imitation task

Twelve- and 15-month-old infants who received simple verbal cues at encoding and retrieval exhibited superior representational flexibility on an imitation task compared to infants who did not receive those cues. Verbal cues can help early-verbal infants overcome perceptual dissimilarity and express knowledge in novel situations.     

Implicit and explicit adjustments to extrinsic visuo-motor transformations and their age-related changes

Humans have unique abilities in using tools. The skilled and goal-directed use of a tool implies that processes of motor control can be adjusted to the transformation of the movement of a part of the body into the movement of the effective part of the tool. A common example is the transformation of a hand movement in the motion of a cursor on a computer monitor. In part the adjustments to such transformations are implicit, that is, without conscious awareness of the novel transformation and the appropriate change of one’s own movements. However, the adjustments can also be explicit and intentional. We review a series of experiments which show that implicit and explicit adjustments to a novel visuo-motor gain are additive. This finding suggests that the processes which generate different types of adjustment are functionally independent. In a second series of experiments it turned out that at older adult age explicit adjustments to novel visuo-motor transformations are impaired, whereas implicit adjustments remain unaffected across working age.     

Ease of processing constrains the activation flow in the conceptual-lexical system during speech planning

In 3 picture-word interference experiments, speakers named a target object in the presence of an unrelated not-to-be-named context object. Distractor words, which were phonologically related or unrelated to the context object's name, were used to determine whether the context object had become phonologically activated. All objects had high frequency names, and the ease of processing of these objects was manipulated by a visual degradation technique. In Experiment 1, both objects were nondegraded; in Experiment 2, both objects were degraded; and in Experiment 3, either the target object or the context object was degraded. Distractor words, which were phonologically related to the context objects, interfered with the naming response when both objects were nondegraded, indicating that the context objects had become phonologically coactivated. The effect vanished when both objects were degraded, when only the context object was degraded, and when only the target object was degraded. These data demonstrate that the amount of available processing resources constrains the forward cascading of activation in the conceptual-lexical system. Context objects are likely to become phonologically coactivated if they are easily retrieved and if prioritized target processing leaves sufficient resources.     

Who took the "x" out of expectancy-value theory? A psychological mystery, a substantive-methodological synergy, and a cross-national generalization

Expectancy-value theory (EVT) is a dominant theory of human motivation. Historically, the Expectancy × Value interaction, in which motivation is high only if both expectancy and value are high, was central to EVT. However, the Expectancy × Value interaction mysteriously disappeared from published research more than 25 years ago. Using large representative samples of 15-year-olds (N = 398,750) from 57 diverse countries, we attempted to solve this mystery by testing Expectancy × Value interactions using latent-variable models with interactions. Expectancy (science self-concept), value (enjoyment of science), and the Expectancy × Value interaction all had statistically significant positive effects on both engagement in science activities and intentions of pursuing scientific careers; these results were similar for the total sample and for nearly all of the 57 countries considered separately. This study, apparently the strongest cross-national test of EVT ever undertaken, supports the generalizability of EVT predictions--including the "lost" Expectancy × Value interaction.