A cross-cultural study of hindsight bias and conditional probabilistic reasoning

Hindsight bias is a mistaken belief that one could have predicted a given outcome once the outcome is known. Choi and Nisbett (2000 Choi, I. and Nisbett, R. E. 2000. Cultural psychology of surprise: Holistic theories and recognition of contradiction. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 79: 890–905. [Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) reported that Koreans showed stronger hindsight bias than Americans, and explained the results using the distinction between analytic cognition (Westerners) and holistic cognition (Easterners). The purpose of the present study was to see whether hindsight bias is stronger among Easterners than among Westerners using a probability judgement task, and to test an “explicit–implicit” hypothesis and a “rule-dialectics” hypothesis. We predicted that the implicit process is more active among Easterners to generate hindsight bias, and that Easterners are more dialectical thinkers, whereas Westerners are more rule-based thinkers. French, British, Japanese, and Korean participants were asked to make probabilistic judgements in a Good Samaritan scenario (Experiment 1) and in a scenario including conditional probabilistic judgement (Experiment 2). In both Experiments, we presume that the implicit revision of causal models is made just by being given unexpected outcome information, and that explicit revision is made by being asked to point out possible factors for an unexpected outcome. In the results Easterners showed greater hindsight bias generally and it was greater in the Good Samaritan scenario. We conclude that the reason why hindsight bias was lower among Westerners is primarily that they tried to follow a rule to suppress the bias.     

Intraindividual models of employee well-being: What have we learned and where do we go from here?

As societal concern shifts from financial survival towards quality of life issues, both in and outside of the workplace, scholarly interest in employee well-being too has risen greatly in recent years. This greater attention to the antecedents and outcomes of employee well-being, such as job satisfaction, work engagement, and job burnout amongst others, is reflected in the proliferation of theories, constructs, and studies seeking to describe and explain why employees flourish or become exhausted at work, and the effect of employee well-being on individual behaviours and the organization at large. In this article, we provide a selective review of the current state of research in employee well-being, as well as key theories that have been employed in its study, with the aim of providing a critical assessment of the current state of employee well-being research as well as suggest future directions for the field. In particular, we discuss how research adopting intraindividual perspectives in the study of employee well-being can not only add value to our understanding of well-being but also complement the findings from between-individual studies, and offer suggestions for the development of a comprehensive theoretical model that integrates the two perspectives.     

Empirically based psychology of Islam: summary and critique of the literature

In this paper, we systematically review the growing empirically based psychology of Islam. We arrive at 10 conclusions: (l) Islam is a multidimensional religion; Islam might mean different things to different people, and some people might adhere to some of its elements but not to others; (2) Islam is similar to, but is different from, other religions; (3) Islam's role in the lives of Muslims seems mostly positive; (4) Some types of Islamic religiousness are negative; (5) The empirical findings have not been translated yet into clinical applications; (6) Most of studies conducted among Muslims provide only a birds-eye view of Islam; (7) Empirical studies of Muslims are scarce; (8) Empirical research on negative types of religiousness among Muslims is sparse; (9) The majority of research in this field has been restricted to convenient samples; (10) Several important topics with implications for Muslims deserve further consideration, and there is a need for more varied research methods in studies of Muslims. The implications of these findings and the limitations of this review are discussed.     

Semantic Fluency Performance of Patients with Cortical and Subcortical Neurodegenerative Diseases

Previous studies using the Animals Fluency Test have shown that dementia patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD), Huntington's disease (HD), or Parkinson's disease (PD) produce fewer correct words and have smaller semantic cluster sizes than controls or PD patients without dementia (PDND). Although the number of correct words generated by the patients with AD was positively correlated with mental status, cluster size, surprisingly, was not. To increase word output and increase the reliability of estimates of cluster size, semantic fluency was reexamined using the Supermarket Fluency Task. Overall, patients with HD or PD with dementia (PDD) exhibited reduced cluster sizes compared to older controls or PDND patients, but cluster sizes were only marginally reduced for patients with AD. These effects were evident only for female participants, because the cluster sizes for elderly control men were substantially smaller than those of elderly women. For the female patients with AD, cluster size was correlated with mental status, but the relationship was nonlinear. Cluster size was normal for mildly demented patients with AD, but much reduced for moderately or severely demented participants. In contrast to a previous report, in the present study the proportion of category labels generated was increased for patients with HD with dementia but not for patients with AD. This finding questions one line of evidence that semantic memory stores undergo “bottom-up” degradation in AD. Together with previous results, these findings indicate that semantic cluster size reflects efficiency of access to semantic knowledge which is similarly compromised in subcortical and cortical diseases.     

Age Differences in the Magnitude of the Attentional Blink

When people attend to a target in a rapid sequence of items, their perception of a subsequent target is impaired for about 500 ms. This is termed the attentional blink. In the present experiment, a dual task rapid serial presentation task (Raymond, Shapiro & Arnell, 1992) was used as a measure of inhibitory function of younger and older adults. We found that the attentional blink was larger among older adults as compared to younger adults, supporting Hasher and Zacks' (1988) inhibitory deficit hypothesis and current models of the attentional blink.     

‘The Ostrich Problem’: Motivated Avoidance or Rejection of Information About Goal Progress

Monitoring one's current standing with respect to goals can promote effective self‐regulation. However, the present review suggests that there is an ostrich problem such that, in many instances, people have a tendency to “bury their head in the sand” and intentionally avoid or reject information that would help them to monitor their goal progress. For example, people with diabetes avoid monitoring their blood glucose, and few people monitor their household energy consumption, check their bank balances, keep track of what they are eating and so on. While situational constraints can explain some problems with progress monitoring, we use a self‐motives framework to posit that the decision to avoid monitoring often represents the product of an interaction between different motives. For example, the desire to accurately assess progress may conflict with the desire to protect or enhance the self. The present review collates evidence pertaining to the ostrich problem, identifies different motives that underlie the decision to monitor versus not monitor goal progress, illustrates how the ostrich problem might be integrated into models of self‐regulation, and provides suggestions for future research. In so doing, the review advances our understanding of the nature and determinants of intentionally deficient monitoring.     

Inhibition of return can be associated with object identity but not with object category

In this study, pre-schoolers and a comparison sample of fifth graders and high school students were presented with prediction tasks that varied by content of the base rate information (perceptual vs semantic) either presented alone (simple task) or accompanied by individuating data (complex task). Base rate choices, confidence scores, and explanations of the choices were registered. It is assumed that the presence of content effects in the processing of the base rates is in favour of a mental model account. Results indicated that pre-schoolers are able to build one-dimensional models with perceptual base rates in simple tasks. Fifth graders and high school students are able to build one-dimensional models with both types of content in simple tasks, as well as two-dimensional models in complex tasks. There is a local facilitation effect of semantic contents for fifth graders that disappears for high-school students. Consistency between subjects' choices, confidence scores and rationales depends on the subjects' grade, the number of sources involved, and the base rate content. Developmental trends are discussed in the light of previous research within formal, heuristic, and mental model approaches.     

Long-term learning in dyslexic children

There is now extensive evidence that the learning processes of dyslexic children show some abnormalities, generally consistent with failure to completely automatise skills. Two studies are reported in which a group of adolescent dyslexic children and a group of normal children matched for age and IQ undertook long-term training on a keyboard spatial task and a choice reaction task respectively. It was concluded that, following extended training, the dyslexic children had normal “strength” of automatisation (as assessed by resistance to unlearning, by ease of relearning after one year, and by dual task performance) but that their initial and their final performance (as assessed by speed and accuracy) were impaired. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that dyslexic children suffer from cerebellar deficit.