Note on the rationality of rule-based versus exemplar-based processing in human judgment

This paper reports a study of the relationship between rule- versus exemplar-based processing and criteria for rationality of judgment. Participants made probability judgments in a classification task devised by S. W. Allen and L. R. Brooks (1991). In the exemplar condition, the miscalibration was accounted for by stochastic components of the judgment with a format-dependence effect, implying simultaneous over- and underconfidence depending on the response scale. In the rule condition, there was an overconfidence bias not accounted for by the stochastic components of judgment. In both conditions the participants were additive on average and reasonably transitive, but the larger stochastic component in the exemplar condition produced somewhat larger absolute deviations. The results suggest that exemplar processes are unbiased but more perturbed by stochastic components, while rule-based processes may be more prone to bias.     

Subjective probability intervals: how to reduce overconfidence by interval evaluation

Format dependence implies that assessment of the same subjective probability distribution produces different conclusions about over- or underconfidence depending on the assessment format. In 2 experiments, the authors demonstrate that the overconfidence bias that occurs when participants produce intervals for an uncertain quantity is almost abolished when they evaluate the probability that the same intervals include the quantity. The authors successfully apply a method for adaptive adjustment of probability intervals as a debiasing tool and discuss a tentative explanation in terms of a naive sampling model. According to this view, people report their experiences accurately, but they are naive in that they treat both sample proportion and sample dispersion as unbiased estimators, yielding small bias in probability evaluation but strong bias in interval production.     

Communication of emotions in vocal expression and music performance: different channels,same code?

Many authors have speculated about a close relationship between vocal expression of emotions and musical expression of emotions. but evidence bearing on this relationship has unfortunately been lacking. This review of 104 studies of vocal expression and 41 studies of music performance reveals similarities between the 2 channels concerning (a) the accuracy with which discrete emotions were communicated to listeners and (b) the emotion-specific patterns of acoustic cues used to communicate each emotion. The patterns are generally consistent with K. R. Scherer's (1986) theoretical predictions. The results can explain why music is perceived as expressive of emotion, and they are consistent with an evolutionary perspective on vocal expression of emotions. Discussion focuses on theoretical accounts and directions for future research.     

Exemplar effects in categorization and multiple-cue judgment

Categorization and multiple-cue judgment are similar tasks, but the influential models in the two areas are different in terms of the computations, processes, and neural substrates that they imply. In categorization, exemplar memory is often emphasized, whereas multiple-cue judgment generally is interpreted in terms of integration of cues that have been abstracted in training. In 3 experiments the authors investigated whether these conclusions derive from genuine differences in the processes or are accidental to the different research methods. The results revealed large individual differences and a shift from exemplar memory to cue abstraction when the criterion is changed from a binary to a continuous variable, especially for a probabilistic criterion. People appear to switch between qualitatively distinct processes in the 2 tasks.     

Can attentional theory explain the inverse base rate effect? Comment on Kruschke (2001)

In J. K. Kruschke's (2001; see record 2001-18940-005) study, it is argued that attentional theory is the sole satisfactory explanation of the inverse base rate effect and that eliminative inference (P. Juslin, P. Wennerholm, & A. Winman, 2001; see record 2001-07828-016) plays no role in the phenomenon. In this comment, the authors demonstrate that, in contrast to the central tenets of attentional theory, (a) rapid attention shifts as implemented in ADIT decelerate learning in the inverse base-rate task and (b) the claim that the inverse base-rate effect is directly caused by an attentional asymmetry is refuted by data. It is proposed that a complete account of the inverse base-rate effect needs to integrate attention effects with inference rules that are flexibly used for both induction and elimination.     

Estrogen treatment alleviates NMDA-antagonist induced hippocampal LTP blockade and cognitive deficits in ovariectomized mice

Estrogen is implicated in hippocampus-dependent spatial learning as well as structural organization and electrophysiological properties of the rat hippocampus but little is known about its mechanisms of action in mice. In this study, we investigated pharmacologically whether estrogen interacts with the hippocampal N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) receptors in ovariectomized mice as postulated for rats. Female C57BL/6J mice were ovariectomized at 5 months, and 2 weeks before testing at 12 months, half of them received subcutaneous estrogen pellets containing 0.18 mg of 17 beta-estradiol. The competitive NMDA-antagonist, 3-((+/-)-2-carboxypiperazin-4-yl)-propyl-1-phosphonic acid (CPP), was administered at 5.0 and 10.0 microM to block induction of long-term potentiation (LTP) in the hippocampal slice and intraperitoneally at 0.5, 2.0, and 5.0 mg/kg to impair spatial learning in the water maze. Estrogen treatment shifted the dose-response curve to CPP in both experiments. First, 10 microM CPP blocked the initiation of LTP in all mice, but 5 microM only in ovariectomized non-estrogen-treated mice. Second, final level of acquisition and probe trial performance in the water maze were less affected by high doses of CPP in the estrogen-treated ovariectomized mice than in non-treated group. In control tests for motor side effects, estrogen treatment did not reduce the tendency of CPP to decrease locomotor activity in the open field and impair balance on a rotating rod, and estrogen by itself decreased swimming speed as did CPP, but these effects did not interact. Our findings support the notion that estrogen treatment increases the number of active NMDA-receptors in the mouse hippocampus.     

A Swedish validation of the Berlin Numeracy Test

Recent research has highlighted the importance of considering an individual's level of numeracy, that is their numerical abilities, in a vast variety of judgment and decision making tasks. To accurately evaluate the influence of numeracy requires good and valid measures of the construct. In the present study we validate a Swedish version of the Berlin Numeracy Test (Cokely, Galesic, Schulz, Ghazal & Garcia‐Retamero, 2012). The validation was carried out on both a student sample and a sample representative of the Swedish population. The Swedish BNT showed sound psychometrical properties in both samples. Further, in both samples the BNT had satisfactory convergent and discriminant validity when correlating with other measures of numeracy, while not being significantly related to measures of personality. With respect to predictive validity the results indicated divergent patterns in the two samples. In the student sample, participants scoring highest on the BNT outperformed those in the other three levels, which did not differ in performance. In contrast, in the population sample participants scoring lowest on the BNT performed worse than those in the other three levels, which did not differ in performance. Taken together, however, the results suggest that the Swedish version of the BNT should be considered a valid measure of numeracy in both Swedish student and population representative samples.     

Evidence for rule-based processes in the inverse base-rate effect.

Three studies provide convergent evidence that the inverse base-rate effect (Medin & Edelson, 1988) is mediated by rule-based cognitive processes. Experiment 1 shows that, in contrast to adults, prior to the formal operational stage most children do not exhibit the inverse base-rate effect. Experiments 2 and 3 demonstrate that an adult sample is a mix of participants relying on associative processes who categorize according to the base-rate and participants relying on rule-based processes who exhibit a strong inverse base-rate effect. The distribution of the effect is bimodal, and removing participants independently classified as prone to rule-based processing effectively eliminates the inverse base-rate effect. The implications for current explanations of the inverse base-rate effect are discussed.     

PROBabilities from EXemplars (PROBEX): a “lazy” algorithm for probabilistic inference from generic knowledge

PROBEX (PROBabilities from EXemplars), a model of probabilistic inference and probability judgment based on generic knowledge is presented. Its properties are that: (a) it provides an exemplar model satisfying bounded rationality; (b) it is a “lazy” algorithm that presumes no pre‐computed abstractions; (c) it implements a hybrid‐representation, similarity‐graded probability. We investigate the ecological rationality of PROBEX and find that it compares favorably with Take‐The‐Best and multiple regression (Gigerenzer, Todd, & the ABC Research Group, 1999). PROBEX is fitted to the point estimates, decisions, and probability assessments by human participants. The best fit is obtained for a version that weights frequency heavily and retrieves only two exemplars. It is proposed that PROBEX implements speed and frugality in a psychologically plausible way.