Adult age differences in the realism of confidence judgments: overconfidence, format dependence, and cognitive predictors

Realistic confidence judgments are essential to everyday functioning, but few studies have addressed the issue of age differences in overconfidence. Therefore, the authors examined this issue with probability judgment and intuitive confidence intervals in a sample of 122 healthy adults (ages: 35-40, 55-60, 70-75 years). In line with predictions based on the na?ve sampling model (P. Juslin, A. Winman, & P. Hansson, 2007), substantial format dependence was observed, with extreme overconfidence when confidence was expressed as an intuitive confidence interval but not when confidence was expressed as a probability judgment. Moreover, an age-related increase in overconfidence was selectively observed when confidence was expressed as intuitive confidence intervals. Structural equation modeling indicated that the age-related increases in overconfidence were mediated by a general cognitive ability factor that may reflect executive processes. Finally, the results indicated that part of the negative influence of increased age on general ability may be compensated for by an age-related increase in domain-relevant knowledge.     

Exemplars in the mist: the cognitive substrate of the representativeness heuristic

The idea that people often make probability judgments by a heuristic short-cut, the representativeness heuristic, has been widely influential, but also criticized for being vague. The empirical trademark of the heuristic is characteristic deviations between normative probabilities and judgments (e.g., the conjunction fallacy, base-rate neglect). In this article the authors contrast two hypotheses concerning the cognitive substrate of the representativeness heuristic, the prototype hypothesis (Kahneman & Frederick, 2002) and the exemplar hypothesis (Juslin & Persson, 2002), in a task especially designed to elicit representativeness effects. Computational modelling and an experiment reveal that representativeness effects are evident early in training and persist longer in a more complex task environment and that the data are best accounted for by a model implementing the exemplar hypothesis.     

Attention and cognitive control: unfolding the dichotic listening story

In this article we present a theoretical approach to cognitive control and attention modulation, as well as review studies related to such a view, using an auditory task based on dichotic presentations of simple consonant-vowel syllables. The reviewed work comes out of joint research efforts by the 'Attention-node' at the 'Nordic Center of Excellence in Cognitive Control'. We suggest a new way of defining degrees of cognitive control based on systematically varying the stimulus intensity of the right or left ear dichotic stimulus, thus parametrically varying the degree of stimulus interference and conflict when assessing the amount of cognitive control necessary to resolve the interference. We first present an overview and review of previous studies using the so-called "forced-attention" dichotic listening paradigm. We then present behavioral and neuroimaging data to explore the suggested cognitive control model, with examples from normal adults, clinical and special ability groups.     

Drinking and driving “safely”: Who uses a breathalyzer and when?

Breathalyzers are often promoted on the grounds of safety. However, drivers who use them to avoid illegal blood-alcohol levels inadvertently expose themselves to sleepiness-related risks following alcohol intake. Personal breathalyzers may even be counterproductive if they make more drivers engage in more frequent or habitual drinking and driving. This study explores the extent to which and how drivers use the breathalyzer. We contacted nine major breathalyzer importers in Finland and found out that the estimated number of devices delivered during 2006 was almost 50,000, equaling approximately one percent of population and one-and-a-half percent of driving-license holders. Survey data on a representative sample of Finnish active drivers (N = 1121) showed that 11.5% owned a breathalyzer. More men than women own and use a breathalyzer, and most often the men are aged 36–55 years. These men also use it more often after acute drinking (32% vs. 20% in the whole sample). Seventy-nine percent of breathalyzer use occurs the following day after evening or night drinking. Therefore, while in a smaller percentage of cases the risk involves the additive and interactive effects of alcohol and sleepiness in the evening, most users expose themselves to risks related to daytime sleepiness due to drinking the previous night.     

Correction to: Bilingualism Is Associated with a Delayed Onset of Dementia but Not with a Lower Risk of Developing it: a Systematic Review with Meta-Analyses

Neuropsychology Review - The original version of this article unfortunately contained the following mistakes.     

Sequential and myopic: On the use of feedback to balance cost and utility in a simulated electricity efficiency task

While there is extensive research on feedback, little research is aimed at the use of feedback to optimise conflicting goals. A task modelled after In Home Displays for providing feedback about electricity cost was designed to investigate the effects of feedback frequency, detail, and stability, when participants try to balance cost and utility. Frequent feedback proved to be advantageous in a deterministic system, but feedback aggregated over time was advantageous in a system with noisy feedback. Surprisingly, performance was better with noisy feedback, where the probabilism, in effect, acted as a filter, highlighting the applications that are most important for the cost and the utility. Computational modelling suggested that the best-fitting model assumes that the participants are sequential, considering one goal at a time, first satisfying the cost budget, only thereafter trying to maximise the utility, and reflexive, myopically responding primarily to the feedback explicitly available on a given trial.     

Preference or ability: Exploring the relations between risk preference,personality, and cognitive abilities

Key issues in the behavioral sciences are if there exist stable risk preferences that generalize across domains and if these are best measured by revealed risk preference (RRP) in behavioral decision tasks or by surveys eliciting stated risk preference (SRP). We applied network analysis to data from a representative Swedish sample to investigate the relations between RRP, SRP, personality characteristics, and cognitive abilities, using in total over 70 measurements. The results showed that different measures of RRP were poorly intercorrelated and formed a community together with measures of numerical and cognitive abilities. Measures of SRP were weakly correlated with measures of RRP and identified in a distinctly separate community, along with personality characteristics and gender. The ensuing analyses provided support for a model suggesting that RRPs are contaminated by demands on numerical and cognitive abilities. RRPs may thus suffer from poor construct validity, whereas SRPs may better capture people's everyday risk preferences because they are related to more stable traits.     

Family context of infantile colic

Psychological factors in families with a colicky baby were studied. A total of 59 families who had enrolled on the basis of information received at the postpartum wards in the city of Turku, Finland, were included in this study. In addition, 58 families with age-matched infants were selected as a control group. These families kept a diary of the infant's crying. Thirty-six infants fulfilled the criteria for severe colic. Twenty-three families with a baby who cried excessively but did not fulfill the criteria were defined as the moderate colic group. A semistructured family interview was carried out to assess the structure, communcation patterns, functioning, and affective tone of the families. Mothers and fathers were younger in the moderate colic group compared with parents in the other groups. In the moderate colic families, the infant was more often the first child than in the control families. On the other hand, neither the infant's gender nor the education of the parents was related to infant's crying. Organized family structure and strong parental coalition were more often present in the severe colic and control groups than in the moderate colic group. Increased family chaos was noted in this group. The severe and moderate colic families had more enmeshed individual boundaries. Generational boundaries were enmeshed in the moderate colic families. Communication patterns did not differ between the groups. The families with a severely or moderately crying baby were less flexible, had decreased ability to cope with daily activities, and showed less energy and vitality than the control families. Both the severe and moderate colic families expressed more anxiety and conflict compared to the control families. In conclusion, an association between infantile colic and psychological characteristics of the family was found. Moreover, the families with a moderately colicky infant had specific psychological features that differed from both the control families and those with severely colicky infants.     

Health examination and scientific inference in occupational health service

In spite of doubts in many quarters there seems to be considerable confidence in the benefits of health examinations. In my opinion it is important to analyze the structure and the purpose of the examinations in order to elucidate the practical thinking and logical quality of OHS. In this article I will conceive health examination as an information process and offer types of inference, i.e. prediction, abduction and induction, feasible for the analysis. I will study the logical conditions and possibilities to draw conclusions using these inference methods and try, in a preliminary way, to show how the qualitative or quantitative formulations of presuppositions affect the formulation of the conclusion. Finally I will explicate the implicit purposes of the health examinations stipulated by Finnish legislation with the aid of the above inference methods. I find the methods feasible for analyzing the information process, and will set forth some conditions for presuppositions used with inference and point out the alternative purposes of Finnish occupational health examinations.