Context-sensitive heuristics in statistical reasoning

Previous work has shown that people use anchor-and-adjust heuristics to forecast future data points from previous ones in the same series. We report three experiments that show that they use different versions of this heuristic for different types of series. To forecast an untrended series, our subjects always took a weighted average of the long-term mean of the series and the last data point. In contrast, the way that they forecast a trended series depended on the serial dependences in it. When these were low, people forecast by adding a proportion of the last difference in the series to the last data point. When stronger serial dependences made this difference less similar to the next one, they used a version of the averaging heuristic that they employed for untrended series. This could take serial dependences into account and included a separate component for trend. These results suggest that people use a form of the heuristic that is well adapted to the nature of the series that they are forecasting. However, we also found that the size of their adjustments tended to be suboptimal. They overestimated the degree of serial dependence in the data but underestimated trends. This biased their forecasts.     

Mutual mother–pup vocal recognition in the highly colonial Cape fur seal: evidence of discrimination of calls with a high acoustic similarity

Animal Cognition - The Cape fur seal (Arctocephalus pusillus pusillus) is one of the most colonial mammal species in the world. Females exclusively nurse their pups for 9 to 11 months,...     

Factorial And Construct Validity Of The Body Parts Satisfaction Scale-Revised: An Examination Of Minority And Nonminority Women

In this two–part study, the psychometric properties of the Body Parts Satisfaction Scale, an extensively used body image attitudes measure, were tested. In Study 1–A, the two–factor structure of the Body Parts Satisfaction Scale–Revised (BPSS–R)—Satisfaction With Body and Satisfaction With Face—was established through exploratory procedures with a racially diverse sample of women (66.7% White American, 17.6% African American, 6.3% Mexican American, 5% Asian American, 0.6% Native American, and 3.8% unreported). In Study 1–B, the two–factors were validated through confirmatory procedures with a matched racially diverse sample of women (71.9% White American, 14.0% African American, 5.3% Mexican American, 4.7% Asian American, 1.2% Native American, and 2.9% unreported). Correlational analyses supported the construct and concurrent validity of the factors. To learn more about body image attitudes within racial/ethnic minorities, Study 2 examined the two–factor solution and psychometric properties in an independent sample of Mexican American women. Confirmatory factor analysis demonstrated that the two–factor solution fit the data, and correlations with other psychological and eating disorder measures supported the factor's construct and concurrent validity. Further, the two factors were unrelated to a measure of acculturation and to generational level living in the U.S., which suggests that body satisfaction may be independent of the acculturation process.