Relational perception and modes of perceiver operation

Judgments were made of the size of a small, luminous (inner) square appearing in the center of a somewhat larger, variable (outer) square, the whole pattern appearing in the dark. Accuracy of judgment was greatest when the outer square was constant from trial to trial but deteriorated when the outer square also varied in size, reaching a lower limit less than the accuracy produced under the absolute judgment condition (no outer square presented). An application of multiple discriminant analysis and the use of a maximum likelihood observer model provided estimates of the extent to which Os responded to inner and outer size variation as separate aspects of stimulation. Although Os differed markedly in this respect, their ability to identify inner square size under the various conditions did not reflect this difference.     

Geometrical representation of two methods of linear least squares multiple correlation

Geometrical properties and relationships of the Doolittle and square root methods of multiple correlation, as represented in the variable subspace of an orthogonal person space, are shown. The method of representation is also useful for depicting zero-order and partial correlations, as well as for the more general problem of the combination of variables.     

Some multiple correlation and predictor selection methods

The Doolittle, Wherry-Doolittle, and Summerfield-Lubin methods of multiple correlation are compared theoretically as well as by an application in which a set of predictors is selected. Wherry's method and the Summerfield-Lubin method are shown to be equivalent; the relationship of these methods to the Doolittle method is indicated. The Summerfield-Lubin method, because of its compactness and ease of computation, and because of the meaningfulness of the interim computational values, is recommended as a convenient least squares method of multiple correlation and predictor selection.     

Factor analysis by minimizing residuals (minres)

This paper is addressed to the classical problem of estimating factor loadings under the condition that the sum of squares of off-diagonal residuals be minimized. Communalities consistent with this criterion are produced as a by-product. The experimental work included several alternative algorithms before a highly efficient method was developed. The final procedure is illustrated with a numerical example. Some relationships of minres to principal-factor analysis and maximum-likelihood factor estimates are discussed, and several unresolved problems are pointed out.The authors wish to thank the Factor Analysis Work Group (supported, in part, by ONR) for valuable criticisms and suggestions made in the course of a discussion of the present work in April, 1965.     

Agricultural policy and strategic investment in information technology

In this article the perspective shifts to the “upstream” end of the agricultural knowledge and information system (AKIS). Because knowledge policy and strategic decision-making are not the prerogative of the public sector, organizations such as cooperative unions and multinational companies are included. After considering the influence of the changing environment on the nature of the AKIS, the role of knowledge management and policy in the emerging knowledge and information market is examined. Special attention is given to public and private R&D. The article then looks where information technology (IT) fits in and what considerations determine strategic investment in IT projects and sustained services. Some of the European experiences with this strategic investment are evaluated.     

PIGEONS ARE SENSITIVE TO THE SPATIAL ORGANIZATION OF COMPLEX VISUAL STIMULI

Abstract— Two experiments investigated the role of spatial organisation in the discrimination and generalization of complex visual stimuli by pigeons. In Experiment 1, after pigeons had been trained to discriminate line drawings of four objects, they were tested with novel pictures in which the same component parts of the objects were spatially rearranged. The spatially scrambled pictures led to a dramatic drop in recognition accuracy, hut responding remained above chance. In Experiment 2, pigeons reached a high level of discriminative performance when required to choose among four different spatial arrangements of the same object parts. These results confirm Cerella's (1980) conclusion that pigeons discriminate the component parts of complex visual stimuli, but. unless it is assumed that the scrambling deleted or created emergent features, the results disconfirm his conclusion that spatial organization plays no role in pigeons' picture perception.     

ELI: An Interactive Elicitation Technique for Subjective Probability Distributions

Uncertain knowledge about continuous quantities is usually formalized through subjective probability distributions (SPD′s). However, results from past experimental research have often pointed to the rather poor quality of SPD′s. Moreover, previous attempts to improve SPD quality frequently appeared to be only partly successful; overconfidence especially proved to be an exceptionally persistent phenomenon. In the present study, method-induced biases in particular are considered to be responsible for the poor quality of SPD′s, and an alternative means for eliciting uncertain knowledge was designed to meet fundamental quality criteria to a more satisfactory degree. The direct realization of a proper scoring rule in a graphically oriented interactive computer program is one of the central features of this new elicitation technique, ELI. An experiment with 48 subjects was carried out to evaluate ELI performance and to compare it with the performance of (a) an existing elicitation technique and (b) a simple technique that only asks for a best guess and a lower and upper bound. The three techniques were evaluated and compared with respect to their contribution to reliable and valid SPD′s and with respect to their practical usefulness. The results indicated that for ELI the fundamental requirements were realized to a great extent. Furthermore, compared with the two other techniques, ELI performance appeared to be superior. In particular, only with the support of ELI did overconfidence appear to be almost absent.     

Order effects in belief updating with consistent and inconsistent evidence

The current study tests for the presence of differential order effects in evaluation tasks with consistent and inconsistent evidence as predicted by the Hogarth and Einhorn (1992) belief-adjustment model. The results, based on both between-subjects and within-subjects experiments, demonstrate that there were significant recency effects with inconsistent evidence as predicted, larger recency effects when the inconsistent evidence was farther apart in subjective value as predicted, and significant recency effects even when subjects were given training designed to both help them understand the task as completely as possible and to be better able to assess the pieces of evidence. By including a within-subjects design, we were able to demonstrate that the difference in subjective value between two pieces of evidence is the primary factor influencing the magnitude of the recency effect, regardless of whether the evidence is consistent or inconsistent. This latter finding is unique and contrary to previous research and theory.