Progress in Violence Risk Assessment and Communication: Hypothesis versus Evidence

We draw a distinction between hypothesis and evidence with respect to the assessment and communication of the risk of violent recidivism. We suggest that some authorities in the field have proposed quite valid and reasonable hypotheses with respect to several issues. Among these are the following: that accuracy will be improved by the adjustment or moderation of numerical scores based on clinical opinions about rare risk factors or other considerations pertaining to the applicability to the case at hand; that there is something fundamentally distinct about protective factors so that they are not merely the obverse of risk factors, such that optimal accuracy cannot be achieved without consideration of such protective factors; and that assessment of dynamic factors is required for optimal accuracy and furthermore interventions aimed at such dynamic factors can be expected to cause reductions in violence risk. We suggest here that, while these are generally reasonable hypotheses, they have been inappropriately presented to practitioners as empirically supported facts, and that practitioners’ assessment and communication about violence risk run beyond that supported by the available evidence as a result. We further suggest that this represents harm, especially in impeding scientific progress. Nothing here justifies stasis or simply surrendering to authoritarian custody with somatic treatment. Theoretically motivated and clearly articulated assessment and intervention should be provided for offenders, but in a manner that moves the field more firmly from hypotheses to evidence. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An Examination of Potential Misclassification of Army Suicides: Results from the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers

Debate continues about the accuracy of military suicide reporting due to concerns that some suicides may be classified as accidents to minimize stigma and ensure survivor benefits. We systematically reviewed records for 998 active duty Army deaths (510 suicides; 488 accident, homicide, and undetermined deaths; 2005‐2009) and, using research criteria, reclassified 8.2% of the nonsuicide cases to definite suicide (1), suicide probable (4), or suicide possible (35). The reclassification rate to definite suicide was only 0.2% (1/488). This low rate suggests that flagrant misclassification of Army deaths is uncommon and surveillance reports likely reflect the “true” population of Army suicides.     

Trauma‐Related Guilt Mediates the Relationship between Posttraumatic Stress Disorder and Suicidal Ideation in OEF/OIF/OND Veterans

Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and trauma‐related guilt are risk factors for suicidal ideation (SI) in veterans. Components of trauma‐related guilt were examined as serial mediators of the relationship between PTSD and SI. In a sample of 53 OEF/OIF/OND combat veterans, PTSD had an indirect effect on SI through a serial mediation chain of guilt cognitions, distress, and global guilt, suggesting that trauma‐related guilt via cognitions, distress, and global guilt is a pathway from PTSD to SI. Attention should be given to assessing and addressing trauma‐related guilt in veterans experiencing PTSD to prevent SI.     

The Quadratic Relationship Between Body Mass Index and Suicide Ideation: A Nonlinear Analysis of Indirect Effects

A nonlinear indirect effects framework was used to investigate potential interpersonal indirect effects (i.e., perceived burden and thwarted belonging) accounting for the nonlinear relationship between body mass index (BMI) and suicide ideation. Using a sample of 338 undergraduates, results revealed a significant quadratic effect of BMI on suicide ideation via perceived burden only, which became significant as BMI fell below 18.00 kg/m² and above 28.00 kg/m². Our results provide novel information relevant for suicide risk screening in the context of weight‐ and health‐related interventions and provide justification for future longitudinal trials assessing suicide risk across the BMI spectrum.     

Mindfulness Moderates the Association Between Perceived Burdensomeness and Suicide Ideation in Adults With Elevated Depressive Symptoms

A conceptual model in which the associations between perceived burdensomeness and suicide ideation, and between thwarted belongingness and suicide ideation, are moderated by mindfulness was examined. Participants were 218 undergraduates (mean age = 20.81) with moderate‐to‐severe depressive symptoms. Mindfulness significantly moderated the association between perceived burdensomeness and suicide ideation; participants with thoughts of burdensomeness experienced lower levels of suicide ideation if they were high, as opposed to low, in mindfulness. Mindfulness did not significantly moderate the association between thwarted belongingness and suicide ideation. Implications for intervention and elaboration of the interpersonal psychological theory of suicide are discussed.