Better safe than sorry: Precautionary reasoning and implied dominance in risky decisions

In four studies, student and nonstudent participants evaluated the possible outcomes of binary decisions involving health, safety, and environmental risks (e.g., whether to issue a dam‐failure evacuation order). Many participants indicated that false positives (e.g., evacuation, but no dam failure) were better than true negatives (e.g., no evacuation and no dam failure), thereby implying that the more protective action dominated the less protective action. A common rationale for this response pattern was the precautionary maxim “better safe than sorry.” Participants apparently evaluated outcomes partly on the basis of the decisions that might lead to them, in conflict with consequentialist decision models. Consistent with this explanation, the prevalence of implied dominance decreased substantially when the emphasis on decisions was reduced. These results demonstrate that an initial preference for a decision alternative can alter the evaluation of possible consequences of both the preferred alternative and a competing alternative, suggesting positive feedback loops that reinforce the initial preference. The rationality of considering the decision itself as an attribute of possible outcomes is discussed. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The listener's temperament and perceived tempo and loudness of music

The relationship between the listener's temperament and perceived magnitude of tempo and loudness of music was studied using the techniques of magnitude production, magnitude estimation scaling and cross‐modal matching. Four piano pieces were presented at several levels of tempo and loudness. In Study 1, participants adjusted tempo and loudness of music to their subjective level of comfort. In Study 2, participants estimated these parameters on a numerical scale and matched the length of a line segment to the estimates of these musical features. The results showed significant correlations of selected aspects of perceived tempo with perseveration and endurance as well as of selected aspects of perceived loudness with endurance and emotional reactivity. Perceived tempo and loudness, as measured by magnitude production and cross‐modal matching tasks, do not seem to systematically correlate with the six formal characteristics of behaviour distinguished in the most recent version of the Regulative Theory of Temperament (RTT). Additionally, there is some evidence that they are selectively associated with reactivity and activity, the dimensions of a previous version of the RTT. The study extends the methodology of research on music preferences and the stimulatory value of music. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluating a dual‐process model of risk: affect and cognition as determinants of risky choice

In three studies we addressed the impact of perceived risk and negative affect on risky choice. In Study 1, we tested a model that included both perceived risk and negative affect as predictors of risky choice. Study 2 and Study 3 replicated these findings and examined the impact of affective versus cognitive processing modes. In all the three studies, both perceived risk and negative affect were shown to be significant predictors of risky choice. Furthermore, Study 2 and Study 3 showed that an affective processing mode strengthened the relation between negative affect and risky choice and that a cognitive processing mode strengthened the relation between perceived risk and risky choice. Together, these findings show support for the idea of a dual‐process model of risky choice. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Interpreting the Butterfly Dream

This paper follows the tradition of treating Zhuangzi's Butterfly Dream episode as presenting a version of skepticism. However, unlike the prevalent interpretations within that tradition, it attempts to show that the skepticism conveyed in the episode is more radical than it has been conceived, such that the episode can be read as a skeptical response to Descartes’ refutation of skepticism based on the Cogito, ergo sum proof. The paper explains how the lack of commitment in Zhuangzi to the dubious assumption about ‘I’ that it necessarily refers to something existing to which Descartes seems to uncritically adhere allows Zhuangzi to doubt what for Descartes is absolutely indubitable: I exist.     

中学生自恋的年龄特征及其与社会适应的关系:自尊的中介作用

对459名初一到高二学生施测自恋、自尊以及社会适应问卷,以探讨中学生自恋的年龄特征及其与社会适应的关系。结果表明:(1)中学生的自恋不存在性别差异,但是年级差异显著,初三学生的自恋水平要显著低于高一学生。由于年级差异的效应值很小(G²=0.025),要谨慎分析该年级差异。(2)自恋与中学生自我报告的社会适应良好呈显著正相关。(3)自尊在自恋与社会适应的关系间起到了中介作用。     

幼儿基于信息判断的选择性信任的发展——其持续性及与人际信任的关系

采用物品命名任务的模式, 对60名2岁、3岁、4岁幼儿的选择性信任进行研究。结果表明:(1)幼儿更信赖那些正确率高的信息传达者, 形成选择性的信任。这种选择性信任的认知能力在3岁左右出现, 并随着年龄的增长而增强, 4岁达到稳定。(2)选择性信任一旦形成, 就具有一定的稳定性和持续性, 即3岁以上的幼儿在不同时间不同地点再见到先前的信息传达者时, 依然能区分出他们。(3)基于信息判断的选择性信任可以迁移到人际信任的其他方面。     

糖尿病防治的策略转变——从关注糖化血红蛋白到着眼心血管事件

通过对2型糖尿病心血管终点事件的观察,更多的临床证据提示,糖尿病的治疗目标应该以减少心血管事件为主。糖尿病防治从策略上发生了两个转变,即以血糖为中心转向以防治心血管事件为中心的多危险因素综合防治策略;以糖化血红蛋白检测作为血糖评价的金标准转向以血糖量、质、时程控制的全面评价策略。     

Optimum sample size allocation to minimize cost or maximize power for the two‐sample trimmed mean test

When planning a study, sample size determination is one of the most important tasks facing the researcher. The size will depend on the purpose of the study, the cost limitations, and the nature of the data. By specifying the standard deviation ratio and/or the sample size ratio, the present study considers the problem of heterogeneous variances and non‐normality for Yuen's two‐group test and develops sample size formulas to minimize the total cost or maximize the power of the test. For a given power, the sample size allocation ratio can be manipulated so that the proposed formulas can minimize the total cost, the total sample size, or the sum of total sample size and total cost. On the other hand, for a given total cost, the optimum sample size allocation ratio can maximize the statistical power of the test. After the sample size is determined, the present simulation applies Yuen's test to the sample generated, and then the procedure is validated in terms of Type I errors and power. Simulation results show that the proposed formulas can control Type I errors and achieve the desired power under the various conditions specified. Finally, the implications for determining sample sizes in experimental studies and future research are discussed.     

The maximum priority index method for severely constrained item selection in computerized adaptive testing

This paper introduces a new heuristic approach, the maximum priority index (MPI) method, for severely constrained item selection in computerized adaptive testing. Our simulation study shows that it is able to accommodate various non‐statistical constraints simultaneously, such as content balancing, exposure control, answer key balancing, and so on. Compared with the weighted deviation modelling method, it leads to fewer constraint violations and better exposure control while maintaining the same level of measurement precision.