Causal explanation improves judgment under uncertainty,but rarely in a Bayesian way

Three studies reexamined the claim that clarifying the causal origin of key statistics can increase normative performance on Bayesian problems involving judgment under uncertainty. Experiments 1 and 2 found that causal explanation did not increase the rate of normative solutions. However, certain types of causal explanation did lead to a reduction in the magnitude of errors in probability estimation. This effect was most pronounced when problem statistics were expressed in percentage formats. Experiment 3 used process-tracing methods to examine the impact of causal explanation of false positives on solution strategies. Changes in probability estimation following causal explanation were the result of a mixture of individual reasoning strategies, including non-Bayesian mechanisms, such as increased attention to explained statistics and approximations of subcomponents of Bayes’ rule. The results show that although causal explanation of statistics can affect the way that a problem is mentally represented, this does not necessarily lead to an increased rate of normative responding.     

Assessing the Experience of Autonomy in New Cultures and Contexts

This research demonstrates the usefulness of the technique of Smallest Space Analysis (SSA) in the construction of indices of the experience of autonomy, a central construct in Ryan and Deci’s self-determination theory of motivation and personality (SDT, 2000) and a construct central to recent controversies on socialization in different cultures. We propose that SSA has two advantages in comparison to correlation tables in the assessment of the experience of autonomy. First, it allows easy identification of items that best capture the various motivations along the relative autonomy continuum postulated by SDT. Second, and more important, it can reveal data patterns that might contribute to theoretical refinement that otherwise might remain unnoticed. These advantages were demonstrated in three Israeli samples: two samples of elementary school children (n = 697 and n = 417), and one sample of high school students (n = 317). Discussion considers ways in which SSA can contribute to the development and refinement of measures and theory pertaining to the experience of autonomy in cultures and contexts not examined so far.

A comparison of two approaches to education about carrier testing for cystic fibrosis

We tested the efficacy of two types of educational materials for genetic counseling: a traditional information brochure and one adding a role model story. Brochures were alternated weekly at a prenatal genetics center. Subjects were asked to read the brochure and fill out a questionnaire covering demographics and variables from the health belief model (impact, barriers, motivation, susceptibility, knowledge, severity). A group of 409 pregnant women and 251 male partners participated. Study design was quasiexperimental, using a post-test only comparison group. The brochure with modeling enhanced the perception of both risk and the severity of the disease and was inversely associated with the assessment of barriers, but did not directly impact on the decision to pursue testing; only 12% chose to be tested, with no significant differences between groups. While suggestive, the study is not confirmatory and should be repeated with a more heterogenous group of women.     

Termination of parental rights: A neglected side effect of infant intervention programs

A significant proportion of infants receiving treatment in programs designed to prevent abuse and psychosocial disorders may be removed from the custody of their parents by social service agencies. In an effort to help distinguish those cases at risk for termination of parental rights (TPR), seven such cases were analyzed and compared to seven similar cases where TPR did not occur. All 14 cases were referred because of abuse/neglect, and were at risk for continued abuse. Results showed that TPR was most likely in families where the parents were viewed as being unpleasant, as having a poor relationship with their child, were seen as retarded by the social service agency, and whose infants showed large gains in developmental level, especially during foster placement. These findings were interpreted as indicating a mixture of actual lack of progress in treatment and a negative attitudinal set about these clients.