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161.
Forecasting from ignorance: the use and usefulness of recognition in lay predictions of sports events 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Whereas previous studies on how people make forecasts of sports events focused primarily on experts, we examined how laypeople do this task. In particular, we (a) tested the recognition heuristic [Goldstein, D. G., & Gigerenzer, G. (2002). Models of ecological rationality: the recognition heuristic. Psychological Review, 109, 75-90], which requires partial ignorance, against four alternative mechanisms in describing laypeople's forecasts for the European Soccer Championships 2004; (b) evaluated how well recognition predicted the outcomes of the matches compared to direct indicators of team strength (e.g., past performance, rankings); and (c) studied the less-is-more effect--the phenomenon that knowing less leads to more correct forecasts than knowing more--which can occur when the recognition heuristic is used. Two groups of participants (laypeople, experts) made forecasts for the first-round matches of the tournament. Of the five candidate mechanisms, the recognition heuristic predicted laypeople's forecasts best: when applicable, it accounted for 90% of the forecasts. The recognition heuristic correctly predicted the actual winner of the matches substantially better than chance but did not achieve the accuracy of direct indicators of team strength. The experts made more correct forecasts than the laypeople. Moreover, we found no benefit of ignorance among the group of laypeople, although the conditions for a less-is-more effect specified by Goldstein and Gigerenzer were fulfilled. 相似文献
162.
Ricardo F. Muoz Huynh-Nhu Le Chandra Ghosh Ippen Manuela A. Diaz Guido G. Urizar Jr. Jos Soto Tamar Mendelson Kevin Delucchi Alicia F. Lieberman 《Cognitive and behavioral practice》2007,14(1):70-83
A prenatal intervention designed to prevent the onset of major depressive episodes (MDEs) during pregnancy and postpartum was pilot tested at a public sector women’s clinic. The Mamás y Bebés/Mothers and Babies Course is an intervention developed in Spanish and English that uses a cognitive-behavioral mood management framework, and incorporates social learning concepts, attachment theory, and socio-cultural issues. The four goals of this project were to develop the intervention, assess its acceptability, test the feasibility of conducting a randomized trial with public sector patients, and obtain estimates of its effect size. Forty-one pregnant women at high risk for developing MDEs were randomized to the Mothers and Babies Course (n = 21) or a comparison condition (n = 20). Assessments occurred during pregnancy and at 1, 3, 6, and 12 months postpartum. Differences in terms of depression symptom levels or incidence of MDEs between the two groups did not reach statistical significance in this pilot trial. However, the MDE incidence rates of 14% for the intervention condition versus 25% for the comparison condition represent a small effect size (h = 0.28) that will be further examined in a larger scale study. The intervention was well received by the participants and implementation of a randomized trial appeared quite feasible as indicated by our follow-up rate of 91% at 12 months. Implications for the continuing development of preventive interventions for perinatal depression are discussed. 相似文献
163.
Facial stimulus processing is an important topic to explain how people comprehend affective disposition in others. The effect
of attentive and pre-attentive elaboration of emotional facial expression was explored in the present research by using backward
masking procedure. Specifically, unconscious mental process of emotion comprehension was analyzed: pictures presenting a happy,
sad, angry, fearful, disgusted, surprised expressions were submitted to 21 subjects in both attentive and pre-attentive conditions
and event-related potentials (ERPs) were registered in the two conditions. The two processes, attentive and pre-attentive,
seem to be similar in their nature, since they are marked by analogous ERP deflections. In fact, two ERP effects were found,
a positive (P300) deflection, maximally distributed on the parietal regions, and a negative (N200) deflection, more localized
on the frontal sites. Nevertheless, some differences between the two conditions were found in terms of quantitative modulations
of the two peaks. The N200 effect, ampler in attentive condition, may be considered such as an index of conscious processing
of emotional faces, whereas the P3 (P3a) effect, higher in pre-attentive condition, was considered a specific marker of the
automatic, unconscious process during the emotional face comprehension. 相似文献
164.
Research in the context of the mood-behavior-model (Gendolla in Rev Gen Psychol 4:348–408, 2000) has shown that moods can have an impact on effort mobilization due to congruency effects on demand appraisals. However,
the mood research literature suggests that mood may also influence effort mobilization by its impact on appraisals of the
instrumentality of success. In a single factor (mood valence: negative vs. neutral vs. positive) between-persons design, participants
performed a memory task under conditions of unclear task difficulty. By successfully performing the task, participants could
earn the chance to win a monetary reward. As predicted for tasks with unclear difficulty, effort mobilization—assessed as
cardiovascular reactivity—increased from negative to positive mood. This effect was mediated by the subjective probability
of winning the monetary reward for successful performance. These results demonstrate for the first time that mood can influence
effort mobilization via the estimated instrumentality of success. 相似文献
165.
Psychological Studies - In light of critical psychology and socio-constructionist theories, the present work aims at analyzing attitudes of political agency, psychological adjustment to trauma, and... 相似文献
166.
Two experiments investigated the influence of priming trait concepts associated with cooperation versus competition on cooperative choices in the ‘Ring Measure of Social Values’. While models of associative memory explain priming effects on immediate associative responses, they fail to provide a sufficient account for the impact of priming on deliberate, voluntary behaviours, because the same activated concepts (e.g. ‘strong’, ‘profit’, ‘success’) may foster opposite behavioural tendencies (i.e. raise competitive impulses or remind the individual of a cooperation norm). The hypothesis is proposed and tested that the evaluative component of the prime stimuli moderates the behavioural tendency (approach versus avoidance) elicited by the semantic priming component. Accordingly, Experiment 1 shows that both positively toned concepts linked to cooperation as well as negatively toned concepts linked to competition lead to increased cooperative choices. Experiment 2 demonstrates that simple, invariant properties of the prime stimuli are more readily extracted than more complex, interactive prime relations. In general, the priming effects are confined to subjects who lack a consistent, pre-experimental value orientation. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
167.
A recurring question of successful group work is how to maintain high task motivation of the individual members. This paper reviews research on one well documented group motivation gain phenomenon, where group members are more highly motivated than comparable individual performers – the Köhler motivation gain effect. The basic effect is attributed to two psychological mechanisms, one involving upward social comparisons and a second involving the indispensability of group members’ efforts. In addition to summarizing research on the discovery and causes of the basic effect, this review identifies probable moderators of each contributing causal mechanism. Moreover, promising topics for future research as well as implications for the application of the Köhler effect in real group work are discussed. 相似文献
168.
169.
Guido Alfani Vincent Gourdon Agnese Vitali 《Journal for the scientific study of religion》2012,51(3):482-504
This article analyzes social norms regulating the selection of godparents in Italy and France. Based on Vatican statistics and European Values Study responses, the vast majority of children in Catholic Europe are baptized and birth rituals are considered important even by nonbelievers. Moreover, the dominant custom of selecting godparents from among kinsmen is a recent development, based on historical data. A new survey about the selection of godparents in Italy and France, conducted for this study, shows that godparents are chosen not for religious, but for social‐relational reasons. Selection of kinsmen is the norm, with uncles and aunts being the majority choice. For Italy, choice determinants are explored by means of multinomial regressions. The results are contrasted with demographic change to show that in lowest‐low fertility countries current godparenthood models are bound to disappear. 相似文献
170.
Caprara GV Alessandri G Eisenberg N 《Journal of personality and social psychology》2012,102(6):1289-1303
The present study examined how agreeableness, self-transcendence values, and empathic self-efficacy beliefs predict individuals' tendencies to engage in prosocial behavior (i.e., prosociality) across time. Participants were 340 young adults, 190 women and 150 men, age approximately 21 years at Time 1 and 25 years at Time 2. Measures of agreeableness, self-transcendence, empathic self-efficacy beliefs, and prosociality were collected at 2 time points. The findings corroborated the posited paths of relations, with agreeableness directly predicting self-transcendence and indirectly predicting empathic self-efficacy beliefs and prosociality. Self-transcendence mediated the relation between agreeableness and empathic self-efficacy beliefs. Empathic self-efficacy beliefs mediated the relation of agreeableness and self-transcendence to prosociality. Finally, earlier prosociality predicted agreeableness and empathic self-efficacy beliefs assessed at Time 2. The posited conceptual model accounted for a significant portion of variance in prosociality and provides guidance to interventions aimed at promoting prosociality. 相似文献