Forecasting from ignorance: the use and usefulness of recognition in lay predictions of sports events

Whereas previous studies on how people make forecasts of sports events focused primarily on experts, we examined how laypeople do this task. In particular, we (a) tested the recognition heuristic [Goldstein, D. G., & Gigerenzer, G. (2002). Models of ecological rationality: the recognition heuristic. Psychological Review, 109, 75-90], which requires partial ignorance, against four alternative mechanisms in describing laypeople's forecasts for the European Soccer Championships 2004; (b) evaluated how well recognition predicted the outcomes of the matches compared to direct indicators of team strength (e.g., past performance, rankings); and (c) studied the less-is-more effect--the phenomenon that knowing less leads to more correct forecasts than knowing more--which can occur when the recognition heuristic is used. Two groups of participants (laypeople, experts) made forecasts for the first-round matches of the tournament. Of the five candidate mechanisms, the recognition heuristic predicted laypeople's forecasts best: when applicable, it accounted for 90% of the forecasts. The recognition heuristic correctly predicted the actual winner of the matches substantially better than chance but did not achieve the accuracy of direct indicators of team strength. The experts made more correct forecasts than the laypeople. Moreover, we found no benefit of ignorance among the group of laypeople, although the conditions for a less-is-more effect specified by Goldstein and Gigerenzer were fulfilled.     

Prevention of Postpartum Depression in Low-Income Women: Development of the Mamás y Bebés/Mothers and Babies Course

A prenatal intervention designed to prevent the onset of major depressive episodes (MDEs) during pregnancy and postpartum was pilot tested at a public sector women’s clinic. The Mamás y Bebés/Mothers and Babies Course is an intervention developed in Spanish and English that uses a cognitive-behavioral mood management framework, and incorporates social learning concepts, attachment theory, and socio-cultural issues. The four goals of this project were to develop the intervention, assess its acceptability, test the feasibility of conducting a randomized trial with public sector patients, and obtain estimates of its effect size. Forty-one pregnant women at high risk for developing MDEs were randomized to the Mothers and Babies Course (n = 21) or a comparison condition (n = 20). Assessments occurred during pregnancy and at 1, 3, 6, and 12 months postpartum. Differences in terms of depression symptom levels or incidence of MDEs between the two groups did not reach statistical significance in this pilot trial. However, the MDE incidence rates of 14% for the intervention condition versus 25% for the comparison condition represent a small effect size (h = 0.28) that will be further examined in a larger scale study. The intervention was well received by the participants and implementation of a randomized trial appeared quite feasible as indicated by our follow-up rate of 91% at 12 months. Implications for the continuing development of preventive interventions for perinatal depression are discussed.     

Consciousness and emotion: ERP modulation and attentive vs. pre-attentive elaboration of emotional facial expressions by backward masking

Facial stimulus processing is an important topic to explain how people comprehend affective disposition in others. The effect of attentive and pre-attentive elaboration of emotional facial expression was explored in the present research by using backward masking procedure. Specifically, unconscious mental process of emotion comprehension was analyzed: pictures presenting a happy, sad, angry, fearful, disgusted, surprised expressions were submitted to 21 subjects in both attentive and pre-attentive conditions and event-related potentials (ERPs) were registered in the two conditions. The two processes, attentive and pre-attentive, seem to be similar in their nature, since they are marked by analogous ERP deflections. In fact, two ERP effects were found, a positive (P300) deflection, maximally distributed on the parietal regions, and a negative (N200) deflection, more localized on the frontal sites. Nevertheless, some differences between the two conditions were found in terms of quantitative modulations of the two peaks. The N200 effect, ampler in attentive condition, may be considered such as an index of conscious processing of emotional faces, whereas the P3 (P3a) effect, higher in pre-attentive condition, was considered a specific marker of the automatic, unconscious process during the emotional face comprehension.     

Mood impact on cardiovascular reactivity when task difficulty is unclear

Research in the context of the mood-behavior-model (Gendolla in Rev Gen Psychol 4:348–408, 2000) has shown that moods can have an impact on effort mobilization due to congruency effects on demand appraisals. However, the mood research literature suggests that mood may also influence effort mobilization by its impact on appraisals of the instrumentality of success. In a single factor (mood valence: negative vs. neutral vs. positive) between-persons design, participants performed a memory task under conditions of unclear task difficulty. By successfully performing the task, participants could earn the chance to win a monetary reward. As predicted for tasks with unclear difficulty, effort mobilization—assessed as cardiovascular reactivity—increased from negative to positive mood. This effect was mediated by the subjective probability of winning the monetary reward for successful performance. These results demonstrate for the first time that mood can influence effort mobilization via the estimated instrumentality of success.     

Do relations between judgment and epistemological beliefs differentiate between mere acceptance and critical evaluation? Comment on Latifian & Bashash (2004)

In 2004 Latifian and Bashash presented Iranian students with questionnaires assessing (a) their epistemological beliefs regarding religion and science as sources of value and truth and (b) their acceptance of a scenario arguing for relative ethics. Acceptance was related to epistemological beliefs in a condition where the scenario was attributed to Freud but not in a condition where it was attributed to Tabatabaee, a highly authoritative theologian. This commentary questions the authors' explanation, particularly their assumption that the participants' reliance on epistemological beliefs would indicate a more critical attitude towards the scenario in the Freud condition than in the Tabatabaee condition.     

Die Wirkung von traumatischem Stress auf biopsychische Selbstorganisationsprozesse

Social frameworks have influenced the understanding of trauma-reactive psychic disorders during the course of the past two centuries.The 20th century has further shaped this understanding by the various concepts established by the different therapeutic schools.The incorporation of scientific results, as well as the theory of complex dynamic systems particularly that of synergetics supply now abundant impulses stimulating the discussion of posttraumatic stress disorders on a psychodynamic, neurophysiological, and systemspecific basis, thereby leaving those schools behind.Comparing synergetic models with the current state of neuroscientific research of post traumatic stress disease (PTSD) gives surprising insights of the dynamics of this disorder,and the resulting therapeutic principles.Specific therapeutic approaches, with the two phases of stabilisation and of trauma processing can be derived from such functional principles of neuronal networks.     

Brain structures playing a crucial role in the representation of tools in humans and non-human primates

The cortical representation of concepts varies according to the information critical for their development. Living categories, being mainly based upon visual information, are bilaterally represented in the rostral parts of the ventral stream of visual processing; whereas tools, being mainly based upon action data, are unilaterally represented in a left-sided fronto-parietal network. The unilateral representation of tools results from involvement in actions of the right side of the body.     

Mood state,task demand,and effort-related cardiovascular response

Drawing on the mood-behaviour model (Gendolla, 2000), two studies investigated informational effects of mood on effort-related cardiovascular response. Experiment 1 manipulated mood state (positive, negative) and task difficulty (easy, difficult, extremely difficult). Effects on cardiovascular reactivity were as expected: On the easy level, reactivity was weak in a positive mood, but strong in a negative mood; on the difficult level, reactivity was strong in a positive mood, but weak in a negative mood; on the extremely difficulty level mood had no effect. Experiment 2 manipulated mood only. As predicted, subjective demand and cardiovascular response were both higher in a negative mood than in a positive mood and the mood effect on cardiovascular response diminished after statistically controlling for the demand appraisals. Neither study revealed any mood effects on cardiovascular response during the mood inductions.