Rules versus statistics: insights from a highly inflected language

Inflectional morphology has been taken as a paradigmatic example of rule-governed grammatical knowledge (Pinker, 1999). The plausibility of this claim may be related to the fact that it is mainly based on studies of English, which has a very simple inflectional system. We examined the representation of inflectional morphology in Serbian, which encodes number, gender, and case for nouns. Linguists standardly characterize this system as a complex set of rules, with disagreements about their exact form. We present analyses of a large corpus of nouns which showed that, as in English, Serbian inflectional morphology is quasiregular: It exhibits numerous partial regularities creating neighborhoods that vary in size and consistency. We then asked whether a simple connectionist network could encode this statistical information in a manner that also supported generalization. A network trained on 3,244 Serbian nouns learned to produce correctly inflected phonological forms from a specification of a word's lemma, gender, number, and case, and generalized to untrained cases. The model's performance was sensitive to variables that also influence human performance, including surface and lemma frequency. It was also influenced by inflectional neighborhood size, a novel measure of the consistency of meaning to form mapping. A word-naming experiment with native Serbian speakers showed that this measure also affects human performance. The results suggest that, as in English, generating correctly inflected forms involves satisfying a small number of simultaneous probabilistic constraints relating form and meaning. Thus, common computational mechanisms may govern the representation and use of inflectional information across typologically diverse languages.     

A cautionary note on modeling growth trends in longitudinal data

Random coefficient and latent growth curve modeling are currently the dominant approaches to the analysis of longitudinal data in psychology. The application of these models to longitudinal data assumes that the data-generating mechanism behind the psychological process under investigation contains only a deterministic trend. However, if a process, at least partially, contains a stochastic trend, then random coefficient regression results are likely to be spurious. This problem is demonstrated via a data example, previous research on simple regression models, and Monte Carlo simulations. A data analytic strategy is proposed to help researchers avoid making inaccurate inferences when observed trends may be due to stochastic processes.     

The Mediational Role of Parenting on the Longitudinal Relation Between Child Personality and Externalizing Behavior

ABSTRACT Building on prior cross‐sectional work, this longitudinal study evaluated the proposition that maternal and paternal overreactive and authoritative parenting mediates the effect of child personality characteristics on externalizing behavior. Data from the Flemish Study on Parenting, Personality, and Problem Behavior were used in a moderated mediation analysis (N=434). Teachers rated children's Big Five characteristics, fathers and mothers rated their parenting, and 3 years later, children rated their externalizing behavior. Mediational analysis revealed both direct and indirect effects. Higher levels of Extraversion and lower levels of Benevolence were related directly to higher levels of child externalizing behavior. Higher levels of paternal authoritative parenting and lower levels of maternal overreactivity were related to lower scores on externalizing behavior. In addition, the relation between Benevolence, Emotional Stability, and externalizing behavior was partially mediated by parental overreactivity. Conscientiousness had an indirect effect on externalizing behavior through paternal authoritative parenting. Relations were not moderated by child gender. This study is of theoretical interest because the results demonstrate that parenting is a mediating mechanism that accounts for associations between personality and externalizing behavior.     

The Effectiveness of Argumentative Strategies

In this article, I further analyze the notion of the effectiveness of argumentative strategies, introduced in Jovičić, 2001. The most relevant achievements of the theories of reasonable discussion and the theories of persuasion are called to mind with the aim of explaining the mechanism of the argumentative effectiveness. As a result, a procedure for evaluating the effectiveness of argumentative strategies is suggested.     

Astrophysical Fine Tuning,Naturalism, and the Contemporary Design Argument

Evidence for instances of astrophysical ‘fine tuning’ (or ‘coincidences’) is thought by some to lend support to the design argument (i.e. the argument that our universe has been designed by some deity). We assess some of the relevant empirical and conceptual issues. We argue that astrophysical fine tuning calls for some explanation, but this explanation need not appeal to the design argument. A clear and strict separation of the issue of anthropic fine tuning on one hand and any form of Eddingtonian numerology and teleology on the other, may help clarify arguably the most significant issue in the philosophy of cosmology.     

Personal Construct Psychology in Preservice Teacher Education: The Path Toward Reflexivity

In times of rapid changes, it is necessary to prepare teachers to be agents of education reform and thus educate them for reflective practice. However, prospective teachers in Serbia rarely have the opportunity to reflect on personal constructs of the teaching profession and their own practice. With the aim of supporting prospective teachers to become reflective practitioners and persons-as-scientists, we organized “alternative lectures” as part of the compulsory study course for future teachers. Within four encounters with four groups of 8 to 10 student teachers, we applied three techniques, developed within frames of personal construct psychology. Modifications of the technique “river of experience,” Career Rivers, enabled student teachers to reflect on the past and reveal constructs that guided previous actions in the professional field. Two self-characterizations, one portraying them as teachers and another portraying them as specialists in a different profession (in accordance with their education), made their constructions of future jobs more permeable. Through the combination of the perceiver element grid and perceiver self grid, they were encouraged to enter the role relationship with pupils and community. Although it raised new questions, this cooperative enterprise resulted in the reduction of anxiety regarding future jobs, embedding the stance of a person-as-scientist and sowing the seeds of reflective practice.     

Nine, seven, five, or three: how many figures do we need for assessing body image?

320 Croatian female students (M=20.4 yr.) were recruited to examine the validity and reliability of figural scales using different numbers of stimuli (3, 5, 7, and 9) and different serial presentation (serial and nonserial order). A two-way analysis of variance (4 numbers x 2 orders of stimuli) was performed on ratings of current self-size and ideal size as dependent variables. Analysis indicated a significant main effect of number of stimuli. This, together with post hoc tests indicated that ratings were significantly different for a scale of three figures from scales of more figures, which in turn did not differ among themselves. Main effects of order of stimuli, as well as the interaction, were not significant. The results support the hypothesis that the optimal number of figures on a scale is seven plus (or minus) two.     

Putting the bits together: an information theoretical perspective on morphological processing

In this study we introduce an information-theoretical formulation of the emergence of type- and token-based effects in morphological processing. We describe a probabilistic measure of the informational complexity of a word, its information residual, which encompasses the combined influences of the amount of information contained by the target word and the amount of information carried by its nested morphological paradigms. By means of re-analyses of previously published data on Dutch words we show that the information residual outperforms the combination of traditional token- and type-based counts in predicting response latencies in visual lexical decision, and at the same time provides a parsimonious account of inflectional, derivational, and compounding processes.     

The role of individual differences in the accuracy of confidence judgments

Generally, self-assessment of accuracy in the cognitive domain produces overconfidence, whereas self-assessment of visual perceptual judgments results in underconfidence. Despite contrary empirical evidence, in models attempting to explain those phenomena, individual differences have often been disregarded. The authors report on 2 studies in which that shortcoming was addressed. In Experiment 1, participants (N= 520) completed a large number of cognitive-ability tests. Results indicated that individual differences provide a meaningful source of overconfidence and that a metacognitive trait might mediate that effect. In further analysis, there was only a relatively small correlation between test accuracy and confidence bias. In Experiment 2 (N = 107 participants), both perceptual and cognitive ability tests were included, along with measures of personality. Results again indicated the presence of a confidence factor that transcended the nature of the testing vehicle. Furthermore, a small relationship was found between that factor and some self-reported personality measures. Thus, personality traits and cognitive ability appeared to play only a small role in determining the accuracy of self-assessment. Collectively, the present results suggest that there are multiple causes of miscalibration, which current models of over- and underconfidence fail to encompass.     

Semantic aspects of morphological processing: transparency effects in Serbian

We examined the contribution of semantics to morphological facilitation in the visual lexical decision task at two stimulus onset asynchronies (SOAs) with Serbian materials. Primes appeared in Roman or Cyrillic characters. Targets always were printed in Roman. When primes were presented at an SOA of 250 msec, decision latencies to verbal targets (e.g., VOLIM) showed greatest facilitation after inflectionally (e.g., VOLE) related primes, significantly less after semantically transparent derived primes (e.g., ZAVOLE), and less again after semantically opaque derived primes (e.g., PREVOLE). Latencies after semantically transparent and opaque derived target words did not differ at an SOA of 48 msec. Both were slower than after inflectionally related primes. Stated generally, effects of semantic transparency among derivationally related verb forms were evident at long SOAs, but not at short ones. Under alphabet-alternating conditions, magnitudes of facilitation were greater overall, but the pattern was similar. The outcome suggests that restricted processing time for the prime limits the contribution of semantics to morphological processing and calls into question accounts that posit a task-invariant semantic criterion for morphological decomposition within the lexicon.