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201.
Do individuals unfamiliar with probability and statistics need a specific type of data in order to draw correct inferences about uncertain events? Girotto and Gonzalez (Cognition 78 (2001) 247) showed that naive individuals solve frequency as well as probability problems, when they reason extensionally, in particular when probabilities are represented by numbers of chances. Hoffrage, Gigerenzer, Krauss, and Martignon (Cognition 84 (2002) 343) argued that numbers of chances are natural frequencies disguised as probabilities, though lacking the properties of true probabilities. They concluded that we failed to demonstrate that naive individuals can deal with true probabilities as opposed to natural frequencies. In this paper, we demonstrate that numbers of chances do represent probabilities, and that naive individuals do not confuse numbers of chances with frequencies. We conclude that there is no evidence for the claim that natural frequencies have a special cognitive status, and the evolutionary argument that the human mind is unable to deal with probabilities. 相似文献
202.
Fischhoff B Gonzalez RM Lerner JS Small DA 《Journal of experimental psychology. Applied》2005,11(2):124-139
The authors examined the evolution of cognitive and emotional responses to terror risks for a nationally representative sample of Americans between late 2001 and late 2002. Respondents' risk judgments changed in ways consistent with their reported personal experiences. However, they did not recognize these changes, producing hindsight bias in memories for their judgments. An intensive debiasing procedure failed to restore a foresightful perspective. A fear-inducing manipulation increased risk estimates, whereas an anger-inducing manipulation reduced them-both in predictions (as previously observed) and in memories and judgments of past risks. Thus, priming emotions shaped not only perceptions of an abstract future but also perceptions of a concrete past. These results suggest how psychological research can help to ensure an informed public. 相似文献
203.
许多以全面理性为基础的决策理论都倾向于把决策者对事物的认识作为决策的前提,认为一项好的决策只有在充分认识了事物的情况下才是可能的.许多心理学的研究发现,这种假设并不符合实际的情况.本研究以"行动理性"为出发点,运用个案分析技术,深入剖析了某电子原件厂历时半年的生产经营决策过程,揭示了决策在执行的过程中逐步调整和发展的特征.研究发现,作为决策的前提的认识,实际上是在该决策的执行过程中不断发展和完善的.决策者是在决策执行结果的评价基础之上,逐步深入地认识决策的关键问题,包括(1)决策所要解决的问题,(2)决策方案会产生什么样的结果,(3)决策执行方法是否适当,(4)决策应采取什么样的程序和方法,(5)决策的形势和条件如何.正是这些"后见",使决策者能够逐步调整决策,实现决策的"渐进发展".这种行动决策的思想,把决策者的认识、决策和决策执行三者的关系看做一种循环发展的过程. 相似文献
204.
医疗保险实施中的新课题:构建合理的利益格局 总被引:2,自引:2,他引:0
马刚波 《医学与哲学(人文社会医学版)》2001,22(7):1-5
大连市实施医疗保险制度6年来,在医疗保险制度改革中医保机构、医疗机构、医药行业及参职工在利益格局调整中,出现了一些问题。从有利于医疗保险制度改革和公平、公正、客观的角度,用辩证的方法分析了医疗保险制度改革过程中的几个主要矛盾,进而从改变利益观、完善政策、加快配套改革等方面提出了相应的建议。 相似文献
205.
By assuming a distribution for the subject weights in a diagonal metric (INDSCAL) multidimensional scaling model, the subject weights become random effects. Including random effects in multidimensional scaling models offers several advantages over traditional diagonal metric models such as those fitted by the INDSCAL, ALSCAL, and other multidimensional scaling programs. Unlike traditional models, the number of parameters does not increase with the number of subjects, and, because the distribution of the subject weights is modeled, the construction of linear models of the subject weights and the testing of those models is immediate. Here we define a random effects diagonal metric multidimensional scaling model, give computational algorithms, describe our experiences with these algorithms, and provide an example illustrating the use of the model and algorithms.We would like to thank J. Douglas Carroll for early consultation of this research, and Robert I. Jennrich for commenting on an earlier draft of this paper and for help on the computational algorithms. James O. Ramsay and Forrest W. Young were instrumental in providing the example data. This work was supported in part by National Institute of Mental Health grant 1 R43 MH57559-01. We would also like to thank the anonymous referees for comments that helped to clarify our work. 相似文献
206.
John Gonzalez 《Studies in East European Thought》2007,59(4):309-346
Despite all that has been written about Russian historiography and how it profoundly changed after the Bolsheviks seized power
in 1917, very little is known about the historical tradition immediately before the Soviet era. This article attempts to begin
to address this issue by examining the major forces that shaped the historical and sociological thought of Nikolai Alesandrovich
Rozhkov (1868–1927). It argues that as Kliuchevskii’s successor and as the first professional historian to eventually present
a Marxist analysis of Russian history, Rozhkov was not only the most important historian at that time but one whose work best
represented the most significant transition in Russia’s historical tradition. The article concludes that an examination of
Rozhkov’s historical methodology offers a new interpretation of the origins of Soviet historiography.
相似文献
John GonzalezEmail: Email: |
207.
208.
运用自编的《中学生情绪评定问卷》和修订的Spielberger《状态——特质愤怒表达问卷》对833名普通中学初中生进行了测试,并用同伴提名的方法把学生分为普通组、身体攻击组和关系攻击组,探讨了初中生情绪反应、表达的特点和攻击行为学生情绪反应、表达的特点。研究结果表明:(1)初中女生报告的恐惧感、悲伤感高于男生,女生报告的愤怒表达也显著高于男生;但在特质愤怒方面,男生报告的特质愤怒水平显著高于女生。在情绪表达与反应的大多数方面不存在显著的年级差异,只在负性情绪表达方面初二女生报告了比初一、初三女生更高的负性情绪表达。(2)被同伴提名为身体攻击学生在状态愤怒、特质愤怒、愤怒表达方面显著高于普通学生,被同伴提名为关系攻击的学生在特质愤怒、愤怒表达方面也显著高于普通学生。攻击行为学生的愤怒情绪系统存在一定的缺陷。 相似文献
209.
采用问卷调查法,分别测查、比较了亲社会儿童、攻击性儿童与一般儿童的社会信息加工(SIP)特点,目的是探讨三类儿童在SIP上是否存在差异。结果表明,在假设分享情境中,攻击性与一般儿童SIP的整体差异不显著,但在对不分享策略的他人情绪预期和关系预期2个变量上差异显著。亲社会与一般儿童、与攻击性儿童SIP的整体差异显著;在假设挑衅情境中,攻击性与一般儿童在对不同策略的自我效能感、选择频率、策略评价等7个变量上差异显著。亲社会与一般儿童在对不同策略的自我效能感、选择频率、策略评价等9个变量上差异显著;亲社会儿童与一般儿童SIP的整体不存在显著差异。 相似文献
210.