Waiting for the bus: when base-rates refuse to be neglected

The paper reports the results from 16 versions of a simple probability estimation task, where probability estimates derived from base-rate information have to be modified by case knowledge. In the bus problem [adapted from Falk, R., Lipson, A., & Konold, C. (1994). The ups and downs of the hope function in a fruitless search. In G. Wright & P. Ayton (Eds.), Subjective probability (pp. 353-377). Chichester, UK: Wiley], a passenger waits for a bus that departs before schedule in 10% of the cases, and is more than 10 min delayed in another 10%. What are Fred's chances of catching the bus on a day when he arrives on time and waits for 10 min? Most respondents think his probability is 10%, or 90%, instead of 50%, which is the correct answer. The experiments demonstrate the difficulties people have in replacing the original three-category 1/8/1 partitioning with a normalized, binary partitioning, where the middle category is discarded. In contrast with typical studies of "base-rate neglect", or under-weighing of base-rates, this task demonstrates a reversed base-rate fallacy, where frequentistic information is overextended and case information ignored. Possible explanations for this robust phenomenon are briefly discussed.     

Two Is Not Always Better Than One: A Critical Evaluation of Two-System Theories

ABSTRACT— Over the past two decades, there has been an upsurge in theoretical frameworks alluding to the existence of two different processing systems that supposedly operate according to different rules. This article critically examines the scientific advance offered by these theories (in particular advances in the domains of reasoning, decision making, and social cognition) and questions their theoretical coherence as well as the evidence for their existence. We scrutinize the conceptual underpinnings of two-system models and explicate the assumptions underlying these models to see whether they are reasonable. We also evaluate the empirical paradigms used to validate two-system models and ponder about their explanatory strength and predictive power. Given the popularity of these models, we discuss the appeal of two-system theories and suggest potential reasons for their prevalence. We comment on the potential costs associated with these models and allude to the desired nature of potential alternatives. We conclude that two-system models currently provide little scientific advance, and we encourage researchers to adopt more rigorous conceptual definitions and employ more stringent criteria for testing the empirical evidence in support for two-system theories.     

Haven't we met somewhere before? The effects of a brief internet introduction on social anxiety in a subsequent face to face interaction

Social anxiety occurs in a range of social situations, the salience of which is influenced by prevailing modes of social contact. The emergence of computer mediated communication (CMC), buoyed by the recent explosion of social networks, has changed the way many people make and maintain social contacts. We randomly assigned 30 socially anxious and 30 low social anxiety participants to a brief internet chat introduction or a control internet surfing condition followed by a standardized face to face (FTF) interaction. We hypothesized that for socially anxious participants the chat introduction would reduce anxiety of and preference to avoid the subsequent FTF interaction. Results supported hypotheses for most indices. Findings suggest that, at least for the common situation in which internet chat precedes FTF interaction with the same person, such contact may reduce social anxiety. It is not known whether this decrease would generalize to FTF contact in other contexts. It is suggested that CMC might be construed as a particularly useful form of safety behavior that may help in the allocation of attentional resources to process new information relevant for disconfirmation of negative beliefs maintaining social anxiety. Potential clinical implications are discussed.     

Armstrong on classes as states of affairs

Book Information Culture and Enlightenment: Essays for Gyorgy Markus. Culture and Enlightenment: Essays for Gyorgy Markus John Grumley, Paul Crittenden, and Pauline Johnson, eds., Aldershot: Ashgate Publishing, 2002, pp. vii + 339, £47.50 (cloth). Aldershot: Ashgate Publishing. Pp. vii + 339. £47.50 (cloth:),     

Automated Integrative Complexity

Integrative complexity is a conceptually unique and very popular measurement of the complexity of human thought. We believe, however, that it is currently being underutilized because it takes quite a bit of time to score. More time‐efficient computer‐based measurements of complexity that are currently available are correlated with integrative complexity at fairly low levels. To help fill in this gap, we developed a novel automated integrative complexity system designed specifically from the integrative complexity theoretical framework. This new automated IC system achieved an alpha of .72 on the standard integrative complexity coding test. In addition, across nine datasets covering over 1,300 paragraphs, this new automated system consistently showed modest relationships with human‐scored integrative complexity (average alpha = .62; average r = .46). Further analyses revealed that this relationship consistently remained significant when controlling for superficial markers of complexity and that the new system accounted for both the differentiation and integration components of integrative complexity. Although the overlap between the automated and human‐scored systems is only modest (and thus suggests the continued usefulness of human scoring), it nonetheless provides the best automated integrative complexity measurement to date.