Chances and frequencies in probabilistic reasoning: rejoinder to Hoffrage,Gigerenzer, Krauss,and Martignon

Do individuals unfamiliar with probability and statistics need a specific type of data in order to draw correct inferences about uncertain events? Girotto and Gonzalez (Cognition 78 (2001) 247) showed that naive individuals solve frequency as well as probability problems, when they reason extensionally, in particular when probabilities are represented by numbers of chances. Hoffrage, Gigerenzer, Krauss, and Martignon (Cognition 84 (2002) 343) argued that numbers of chances are natural frequencies disguised as probabilities, though lacking the properties of true probabilities. They concluded that we failed to demonstrate that naive individuals can deal with true probabilities as opposed to natural frequencies. In this paper, we demonstrate that numbers of chances do represent probabilities, and that naive individuals do not confuse numbers of chances with frequencies. We conclude that there is no evidence for the claim that natural frequencies have a special cognitive status, and the evolutionary argument that the human mind is unable to deal with probabilities.     

When Likeness Goes with Liking: The Case of Political Preference

Three studies show that people tend to vote for politicians (i.e., either Romano Prodi or Silvio Berlusconi in Italy or George W. Bush or John Kerry in the United States) whose traits they rate as being most similar to their own. People perceived higher similarity between themselves and political figures with respect to traits that were most distinctive of each platform and their respective leaders. These findings, while corroborating the similarity-attraction relationship, further attest to the role that personal characteristics of both voters and candidates play in orienting political preference.     

Zur experimentellen Grundlegung hypno-suggestiver Methoden psychischer Analyse

Ohne Zusammenfassung Mit 22 Abbildungen im Text     

Investigation of age and gender effects on positive orientation in Italian twins

We investigated age and gender effects on “Positive Orientation” (POS)—an individual's tendency to view life with a positive outlook—using a genetically informed design. Study subjects were 1016 twins aged 22–75 from the Italian twin registry. We assessed POS by the recently developed P‐scale. First, we used confirmatory factor analysis to investigate scale's measurement invariance by age and gender. Then, we applied biometric modelling to estimate genetic and environmental components of POS score. Overall, we found a satisfactory degree of measurement invariance by both age and gender. Results from these analyses further indicated an increasing mean level of POS across the lifespan. Additive genetic and unshared environmental factors explained respectively 58% and 42% of variance in POS score, with no significant gender differences; furthermore, the pattern of change of gene‐environment architecture of POS over time was consistent with a greater plasticity of personality at older ages.     

Patients are not fully human: a nurse's coping response to stress

In this article, dehumanization of patients was studied as a strategy used by nurses to cope with stress. Affective organizational commitment (AOC) and affective commitment to patients (ACP) were tested as moderators. We also explored how nurses' humanity attributions to their in‐group relate to stress symptoms. Participants were nurses working in different wards of an Italian urban hospital. Findings showed that perceiving patients as not fully human was related to lower levels of stress symptoms for nurses with high AOC and ACP, but not for nurses with low AOC and ACP. Moreover, for highly committed nurses, the attribution of uniquely human traits to the in‐group was associated with increased stress symptoms. Implications of findings for the relationship between nurses and patients are discussed.     

The Relation of Pro‐Sociality to Self‐Esteem: The Mediational Role of Quality of Friendships

The present longitudinal study examined the role of quality of friendship in mediating the relation of pro‐sociality to self‐esteem over time. Participants were 424 Italian young adults (56% females) assessed at two waves (M_age = 21.1 at Time 1; M_age = 25 at Time 2). An autoregressive cross‐lagged panel model was used to test the mediational model. Self‐ and friend‐report measures of pro‐sociality, quality of friendship, and self‐esteem were included in the analyses. Results were in line with the hypothesized paths, with quality of friendship mediating the relation of pro‐sociality to later self‐esteem above and beyond its high stability. Self‐esteem, in turn, predicted pro‐sociality 4 years later. Overall, the present findings support the potential benefits of behaving pro‐socially for an actor in terms of increased perceived self‐worth and also expand previous work by outlining the specific mediational role of the quality of friendships. The theoretical and practical implications of these results are discussed.     

Being positive despite illness: The contribution of positivity to the quality of life of cancer patients

Objective: The purpose of this study was to examine the longitudinal relationship between Positivity (POS), defined as a stable disposition to view at experience under a positive outlook, and physical and psychological functioning in a sample of cancer patients immediately after diagnosis and one year later.

Methods: A total of 110 patients (40% males) with pulmonary, colorectal and breast cancer, aged 30–75 (M age = 59.62; SD = 10.33), have been prospectively enrolled between 2012 and 2013, at the S. Andrea Hospital in Rome. All patients were previously aware of their diagnosis. A follow-up one year after diagnosis was conducted. We used structural equation modeling in order to analyse the specific effects of POS on functioning impairment from diagnosis to follow up.

Results: POS was associated with less functioning impairment both at diagnosis and follow-up assessments. Furthermore, POS level at diagnosis continued to be associated with less functioning impairment one year later, after controlling for its stability.

Conclusions: Patients with higher level of POS tended to report less symptoms associated with negative affect such as anxiety and despondency and to preserve their habitual relationships and social roles. POS may act as a basic disposition that sustains patients’ efforts to deal efficaciously with severe illness, by complying with medical treatment and using cognitive strategies that enable individuals to cope with concurrent and prospective challenges of illness.     

A unifying view of the basis of social cognition

In this article we provide a unifying neural hypothesis on how individuals understand the actions and emotions of others. Our main claim is that the fundamental mechanism at the basis of the experiential understanding of others' actions is the activation of the mirror neuron system. A similar mechanism, but involving the activation of viscero-motor centers, underlies the experiential understanding of the emotions of others.