A Utility Based Evaluation of Logico-probabilistic Systems

Systems of logico-probabilistic (LP) reasoning characterize inference from conditional assertions interpreted as expressing high conditional probabilities. In the present article, we investigate four prominent LP systems (namely, systems O, P, Z, and QC) by means of computer simulations. The results reported here extend our previous work in this area, and evaluate the four systems in terms of the expected utility of the dispositions to act that derive from the conclusions that the systems license. In addition to conforming to the dominant paradigm for assessing the rationality of actions and decisions, our present evaluation complements our previous work, since our previous evaluation may have been too severe in its assessment of inferences to false and uninformative conclusions. In the end, our new results provide additional support for the conclusion that (of the four systems considered) inference by system Z offers the best balance of error avoidance and inferential power. Our new results also suggest that improved performance could be achieved by a modest strengthening of system Z.     

Hermeneutics and the capabilities approach: a thick heuristic tool for a thin normative standard of well-being

This paper argues for the way in which the hermeneutics of human action (in particular the technical dimension of action) and the capabilities approach are to be coordinated in judgements regarding the happy life or well-being. To ensure that this hypothesis is not only philosophically plausible but practically reasonable, I apply it throughout to practical examples, namely practices related to the arrangement of space. I argue that judgement regarding happiness or well-being requires two distinct forms of reflection: (1) a hermeneutics (here derived from Ric?ur) that can do justice to the thickness (in Geertz's sense) of human living and (2) a thin standard (in Walzer's sense) of universal human functional capabilities, by which to point out which insufficient conditions for action undermine human well-being (here presented according to Nussbaum's version of the capabilities approach). These two forms of reflection, it will be argued, are theoretically compatible, yet remain – in practice – in tension. Recognition of this tension has to accompany responsible judgement.     

Psychotherapeutischer Prozess und Persönlichkeitsstörungen

This paper begins with a cursory overview of psychotherapy outcome research for personality disorders; however, relatively little is known about process research or process outcome relationships. It then focuses on relevant patient and therapist variables. Significant controversies in personality disorder treatment techniques are examined. Initially, studies generally associated transference interpretation with less favorable therapy outcomes. Recent work supports the possibility of differentiated correlations. There is increasing evidence that a moderate amount of transference interpretation and perhaps even a therapeutic alliance that is not so good, maybe indicative of an inner conflict with the therapist relationship, could ultimately be beneficial. This association most probably does not exist in cluster C personality disorders. A problem with this type of research is that clear definitions are often lacking. This complicates comparisons between studies and the influence of other mediating variables remains vague.     

Leader Inquisitiveness,Political Skill,and Follower Attributions of Leader Charisma and Effectiveness: Test of a moderated mediation model

Given the variability in personality's relationship with leadership and the use of personality measures in leader selection and assessment, we examine the joint influence of leader trait inquisitiveness and leader political skill on subordinate perceptions of leader charisma and effectiveness. Findings indicate a positive main effect of political skill on charisma, the positive relationship between inquisitiveness and charisma is moderated by heightened political skill, and charisma mediates the relationship between the inquisitiveness by political skill interaction and perceived effectiveness. The moderated mediation results of our study suggest that organizations should not only select creative and imaginative leaders, but also select those who are politically skilled or provide political skill training.     

Flux and permanence of risk perceptions: Tourists' perception of the relative and absolute risk for various destinations

The present investigation is a cross‐sectional, multi‐national, quantitative, and quasi‐experimental comparison of tourists’ risk perceptions regarding different destinations throughout the past decade. Over 10,000 tourists to Norway from 89 different countries filled in a questionnaire rating the perceived risk for various destinations. Data were collected during 2004, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2015 and allow for a comparison of perceived risk across time, place and nationality. Results show that while absolute risk judgments for different destinations fluctuate somewhat over the years, relative risk judgments remain constant. Findings also reveal a “home‐is‐safer‐then‐abroad‐bias” with tourists consistently perceiving their home country among the safest destinations. The current investigation is rare because it looks at more than one destination at a time. Insights gained from the present findings diverge from what would have been concluded from employing case studies, that is, looking at one destination at a time.     

Mindfulness-Based Stress Reduction for Coronary Artery Disease Patients: Potential Improvements in Mastery and Depressive Symptoms

Journal of Clinical Psychology in Medical Settings - Depressive symptoms after coronary events are associated with a worse prognosis. When changing the focus from psychopathology towards a...     

An investigation of the social identity model of collective action and the 'sedative' effect of intergroup contact among Black and White students in South Africa

Two studies investigated the role of intergroup contact in predicting collective action tendencies along with three key predictors proposed by the social identity model of collective action (SIMCA; Van Zomeren, Postmes, & Spears, 2008). Study 1 (N= 488 Black South African students) tested whether social identity would positively, whereas intergroup contact would negatively predict collective action and support for policies benefiting the ingroup. Study 2 (N= 244 White South African students) predicted whether social identity would positively predict collective action benefiting the ingroup, and intergroup contact would positively predict support for policies to benefit the Black outgroup. Both studies yielded evidence in support of the predictive power of social identity and contact on collective action and policy support. Additionally, Study 1 confirmed that intergroup contact moderated the effects of social identity on relative deprivation, and relative deprivation on collective action. Overall findings support an integration of SIMCA and intergroup contact theory, and provide a fuller understanding of the social psychological processes leading to collective action.     

Structure-mapping in metaphor comprehension

Metaphor has a double life. It can be described as a directional process in which a stable, familiar base domain provides inferential structure to a less clearly specified target. But metaphor is also described as a process of finding commonalities, an inherently symmetric process. In this second view, both concepts may be altered by the metaphorical comparison. Whereas most theories of metaphor capture one of these aspects, we offer a model based on structure-mapping that captures both sides of metaphor processing. This predicts (a) an initial processing stage of symmetric alignment; and (b) a later directional phase in which inferences are projected to the target. To test these claims, we collected comprehensibility judgments for forward (e.g., "A rumor is a virus") and reversed ("A virus is a rumor") metaphors at early and late stages of processing, using a deadline procedure. We found an advantage for the forward direction late in processing, but no directional preference early in processing. Implications for metaphor theory are discussed.     

Intraclass correlation associated with therapists: estimates and applications in planning psychotherapy research

It is essential that outcome research permit clear conclusions to be drawn about the efficacy of interventions. The common practice of nesting therapists within conditions can pose important methodological challenges that affect interpretation, particularly if the study is not powered to account for the nested design. An obstacle to the optimal design of these studies is the lack of data about the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), which measures the statistical dependencies introduced by nesting. To begin the development of a public database of ICC estimates, the authors investigated ICCs for a variety outcomes reported in 20 psychotherapy outcome studies. The magnitude of the 495 ICC estimates varied widely across measures and studies. The authors provide recommendations regarding how to select and aggregate ICC estimates for power calculations and show how researchers can use ICC estimates to choose the number of patients and therapists that will optimize power. Attention to these recommendations will strengthen the validity of inferences drawn from psychotherapy studies that nest therapists within conditions.