An evaluation of the reliability of probability judgments across response modes and over time

Despite the importance of probability assessment methods in behavioral decision theory and decision analysis, little attention has been directed at evaluating their reliability and validity. In fact, no comprehensive study of reliability has been undertaken. Since reliability is a necessary condition for validity, this oversight is significant. The present study was motivated by that oversight. We investigated the reliability of probability measures derived from three response modes: numerical probabilities, pie diagrams, and odds. Unlike previous studies, the experiment was designed to distinguish systematic deviations in probability judgments, such as those due to experience or practice, from random deviations. It was found that subjects assessed probabilities reliably for all three assessment methods regardless of the reliability measures employed. However, a small but statistically significant decrease over time in the magnitudes of assessed probabilities was observed. This effect was linked to a decrease in subjects overconfidence during the course of the experiment.     

A comparison of Guided Imaginal Coping and imaginal exposure in the treatment of panic disorder

The present study evaluated the efficacy of a new intervention, Guided Imaginal Coping (GIC), compared to imaginal exposure (IEX), and a waiting-list control (WLC) condition among 24 clinic outpatients meeting DSM-III-R criteria for panic disorder (PD) or PD with agoraphobia. GIC was the more consistently effective intervention, with individuals demonstrating significant improvement in frequency and severity of panic attacks (Pas) as well as significant reductions in physiological and subjective arousal to provocative imagery. Individuals in the IEX intervention demonstrated less consistent improvement on the dependent measures, while individuals in the WLC condition essentially remained unchanged. Both GIC and IEX were effective according to a composite measure of clinically significant improvement. However, only GIC was superior to the WLC condition when clinical improvement was defined as zero PAs at follow-up. These findings, while preliminary, suggest that GIC can be added to the armamentarium of effective approaches to treating PD.     

Utility maximization and melioration: Internalities in individual choice

How do people go about choosing between alternatives in relatively simple settings? This study explores some of the variables that past work suggests may be relevant. Volunteer subjects worked for money in six procedures in which the probability of a payment from either of two alternatives was 1.0, but the rate of pay (i.e. the speed with which a payment was delivered or the size of the payment) interacted with the subjects recent allocation of choices, which we define as the ‘internalities’. Because of the internalities, choosing the currently more profitable alternative did not maximize total earnings. Subjects were more likely to fail to maximize when the interaction between present pay and past choices was spread over longer sequences of choices, or when the reward variable was the speed, rather than the value, of each payment. Subjects often disregarded the internalities and were instead guided by the current yields of the two alternatives, which is a frequently observed tendency, called ‘melioration’, in experiments on choices by animals. The tendency toward melioration was only partially counteracted by explicit instructions on how to maximize earnings. We discuss a theoretical framework for melioration that postulates both motivational and cognitive sources.     

Limits of focused attention in three-dimensional space

The present experiment examined the shape of the attentional gradient in three-dimensional space. Subjects performed a response-compatibility task in which they were instructed to respond to a centrally located target and ignore flanking distractors. The irrelevant distractors were presented at combinations of seven different depths, three different horizontal separations, and three different vertical separations relative to the target. Depth was varied in a stereoscopic display viewed through polarized glasses. Overall, the size of the response-compatibility effect decreased with increased separation in all three dimensions. Interestingly, the response-compatibility effect was larger for horizontal separations than for vertical separations and was larger for crossed disparities than for uncrossed disparities. The results suggest an elliptical focus of attention, with steeper gradients in the vertical dimensions than in the horizontal dimensions. In addition, the results suggest, along the vertical dimension, a steeper gradient for objects located beyond the focus of attention relative to that for objects located between the observer and the focus of attention.     

Children's and parents' daily stressful events and psychological symptoms

Associations of children's daily stressful events and their parents' daily hassles and psychological symptoms with children's emotional/behavioral problems were examined in a sample of fourth- and fifth-grade children and their parents. Correlational analyses indicated that children's self-reports of depressive symptoms were associated with children's daily stressors and mothers' daily hassles, and children's self-reports of anxiety symptoms were associated with children's daily stressors and both mothers' and fathers' daily hassles. Mothers' and fathers' reports of their children's internalizing emotional/behavioral problems were correlated with mothers' and fathers' daily stressors and symptoms. Hierarchical multiple-regression analyses revealed that (a) children's self-reports of depressive symptoms were associated with children's daily stressors, (b) children's self-reports of anxiety symptoms were associated with their parents' daily hassles, (c) mothers' reports of their children's internalizing emotional/behavioral problems were marginally associated with parents' symptoms, and (d) fathers' reports of their children's internalizing emotional/behavioral problems were associated with parents' symptoms and children's self-reports of daily stressors.     

Rate variables and automatized naming in developmental dyslexia

The rate variable in rapid automatized naming (RAN) was investigated in 50 adolescent and 40 adult students with developmental dyslexia, in matched normal controls, and in learning-disabled students without reading difficulties. Visual stimuli depicting familiar colors and common objects were presented in isolation at three film speeds and three exposure times. Film speed and exposure time contributed as independent variables to error rate; and dyslexic subjects of both age groups made significantly more naming errors than controls. Dyslexic subjects also responded with longer naming latencies than controls when the same RAN stimuli were presented in a continuous sequential mode as a matrix of rows and columns. Naming latencies in the sequential presentation were highly correlated with naming errors in the film version. The implications of reduced naming rates for nongraphological stimuli in developmental dyslexia are discussed.     

Sources of difficulty in deductive reasoning: The THOG task

The THOG task presents four designs constructed from two shapes and two colours. Subjects are told that the experimenter has written down one of the shapes and one of the colours and are provided the rule that if, and only if, any design has either the shape or the colour, but not both, written down, then it is a THOG. Finally, they are given an exemplar and are asked to classify the remaining designs. Successful solution requires construction of hypotheses, reasoning under each hypothesis, and comparison of the results under each to reach a final conclusion. Few subjects are able to provide adequate responses on the standard version of the task. We present the results of four experiments, with 160 undergraduates each presented with one of eight versions of the task. Experiments 1 and 2 indicate that (1) some subjects think that the properties that are written down are identical to those of the exemplar, although these are not the same subjects who exhibit the modal error pattern, (2) many subjects correctly understand the disjunction of the rule but fail to consider the hypotheses, and (3) poor initial encoding of the problem is not easily corrected. Experiment 3 investigates the sufficiency of the claim of Griggs and Newstead (1982) that appropriate problem solution follows from explicit presentation of all problem information (including use of positive labels for properties that are not written down), and Experiment 4 investigates the necessity of the claim. The results of Experiments 3 and 4 show that presenting positive category labels does increase the frequency of correct solution; however, positive category labels are not necessary for such improvement. Separation of the labels of the THOG rule from those of the exemplar, or informing subjects that only one other design is a THOG, also increases the frequency of successful solution. The results suggest that many people have some fairly sophisticated reasoning skills. but application of these skills is easily discouraged when the features of the task lead to poor initial encoding.