An evaluation of the reliability of probability judgments across response modes and over time

Despite the importance of probability assessment methods in behavioral decision theory and decision analysis, little attention has been directed at evaluating their reliability and validity. In fact, no comprehensive study of reliability has been undertaken. Since reliability is a necessary condition for validity, this oversight is significant. The present study was motivated by that oversight. We investigated the reliability of probability measures derived from three response modes: numerical probabilities, pie diagrams, and odds. Unlike previous studies, the experiment was designed to distinguish systematic deviations in probability judgments, such as those due to experience or practice, from random deviations. It was found that subjects assessed probabilities reliably for all three assessment methods regardless of the reliability measures employed. However, a small but statistically significant decrease over time in the magnitudes of assessed probabilities was observed. This effect was linked to a decrease in subjects overconfidence during the course of the experiment.     

A comparison of Guided Imaginal Coping and imaginal exposure in the treatment of panic disorder

The present study evaluated the efficacy of a new intervention, Guided Imaginal Coping (GIC), compared to imaginal exposure (IEX), and a waiting-list control (WLC) condition among 24 clinic outpatients meeting DSM-III-R criteria for panic disorder (PD) or PD with agoraphobia. GIC was the more consistently effective intervention, with individuals demonstrating significant improvement in frequency and severity of panic attacks (Pas) as well as significant reductions in physiological and subjective arousal to provocative imagery. Individuals in the IEX intervention demonstrated less consistent improvement on the dependent measures, while individuals in the WLC condition essentially remained unchanged. Both GIC and IEX were effective according to a composite measure of clinically significant improvement. However, only GIC was superior to the WLC condition when clinical improvement was defined as zero PAs at follow-up. These findings, while preliminary, suggest that GIC can be added to the armamentarium of effective approaches to treating PD.     

Utility maximization and melioration: Internalities in individual choice

How do people go about choosing between alternatives in relatively simple settings? This study explores some of the variables that past work suggests may be relevant. Volunteer subjects worked for money in six procedures in which the probability of a payment from either of two alternatives was 1.0, but the rate of pay (i.e. the speed with which a payment was delivered or the size of the payment) interacted with the subjects recent allocation of choices, which we define as the ‘internalities’. Because of the internalities, choosing the currently more profitable alternative did not maximize total earnings. Subjects were more likely to fail to maximize when the interaction between present pay and past choices was spread over longer sequences of choices, or when the reward variable was the speed, rather than the value, of each payment. Subjects often disregarded the internalities and were instead guided by the current yields of the two alternatives, which is a frequently observed tendency, called ‘melioration’, in experiments on choices by animals. The tendency toward melioration was only partially counteracted by explicit instructions on how to maximize earnings. We discuss a theoretical framework for melioration that postulates both motivational and cognitive sources.     

An X Windows tool for synthesizing face images from eigenvectors

An X Windows software tool for the construction of faces with a weighted combination of eigenvectors is described. The eigenvectors were extracted from an autoassociative matrix that comprised 100 face images. The program input consists of eigenvectors and sets of weights that describe individual faces and combines these to create face images. The tool creates a panel of buttons that permits the display of individual eigenvectors and the display of an average face as well. Facilities for on-line changes to the intensity of individual eigenvectors can be used to change the appearance of a face. Previously, O’Toole, Abdi, Deffenbacher, and Bartlett (1991) have shown that the intensity of certain individual eigenvectors contains reliable information for determining the sex and race of the face.     

Limits of focused attention in three-dimensional space

The present experiment examined the shape of the attentional gradient in three-dimensional space. Subjects performed a response-compatibility task in which they were instructed to respond to a centrally located target and ignore flanking distractors. The irrelevant distractors were presented at combinations of seven different depths, three different horizontal separations, and three different vertical separations relative to the target. Depth was varied in a stereoscopic display viewed through polarized glasses. Overall, the size of the response-compatibility effect decreased with increased separation in all three dimensions. Interestingly, the response-compatibility effect was larger for horizontal separations than for vertical separations and was larger for crossed disparities than for uncrossed disparities. The results suggest an elliptical focus of attention, with steeper gradients in the vertical dimensions than in the horizontal dimensions. In addition, the results suggest, along the vertical dimension, a steeper gradient for objects located beyond the focus of attention relative to that for objects located between the observer and the focus of attention.     

Proximal and Distal Predictors of Homophobia: Framing the Multivariate Roots of Outgroup Rejection1

A proximal-distal theoretical framework was developed to examine the multivariate roots of homophobia. Using data from a sample of 288 undergraduates who had participated in a computer-assisted panel study over a three-year period, the effects on homophobia of distal and proximal family factors (e. g., parental education and family environment), distal and proximal individual factors (e. g., personality constructs and current beliefs), and proximal individual-situational factors (e. g., acquaintance with homosexuals) were tested in regression analyses. Both analyses employing sets of variables varying in proximity to the homophobic attitude and hierarchical regression employing variables contributing significantly in each set supported the proposed framework. All sets predicted significantly when regressed separately on homophobia; the sets containing the distal factors contributed most weakly, and the sets containing the proximal factors contributed most strongly. In hierarchical regression analysis, this pattern maintained such that the incremental increase in r² decreased with the addition of each more distal set, with the most distal factors failing to contribute significantly to the prediction. The importance of study findings for attitude change efforts is discussed.     

The use of partial temporal information in dating personal events

Memory & Cognition - The use of different types of partial temporal information is shown to affect dating accuracy and the distribution of errors in event dating. Several different types of...