Differential predictability of preferences and choices

A combined multi-attribute utility and expectancy-value model has repeatedly been found to yield a worse fit to choices than to preference ratings. The present study investigated two possible explanations for this finding. First, people's belief-value structures may change in the choice task as they try to find the best alternative. Second, a difficult choice task may cause the decision maker to use simplifying heuristics. In the first of two experiments, subjective belief-value structures were measured on two occasions separated by about one week. Immediately before the second measurement, different groups of subjects performed a choice task, gave preference ratings, or performed a control task. The results did not support an interpretation of the greater difficulty of predicting choices in terms of changes in belief-value structures. However, the notion of simplifying heuristics received support by the finding that adopting simpler versions of the original model improved the predictions of the choices. In the second experiment, beliefs were measured immediately before or after each of a series of choices or preference ratings. The results indicated that although temporary changes in beliefs may occur, they can hardly provide a full account of the differential predictability of preferences and choices.     

Psychological conceptions of randomness

This article presents a critique of the concept of randomness as it occurs in the psychological literature. The first section of our article outlines the significance of a concept of randomness to the process of induction; we need to distinguish random and non-random events in order to perceive lawful regularities and formulate theories concerning events in the world. Next we evaluate the psychological research that has suggested that human concepts of randomness are not normative. We argue that, because the tasks set to experimental subjects are logically problematic, observed biases may be an artifact of the experimental situation and that even if such biases do generalise they may not have pejorative implications for induction in the real world. Thirdly we investigate the statistical methodology utilised in tests for randomness and find it riddled with paradox. In a fourth section we find various branches of scientific endeavour that are stymied by the problems posed by randomness. Finally we briefly mention the social significance of randomness and conclude by arguing that such a fundamental concept merits and requires more serious considerations.     

Further validity and normative data for the Malouff and Schutte belief scale

The present study provides further validity and normative data for the Malouff and Schutte (1986) Belief Scale. Belief Scale, Eysenck Personality Questionnaire-Neuroticism Scale, and Beck Depression Inventory scores of a sample of 197 adults were correlated, and evidence for both construct and discriminant validities and support for the RET model were obtained. The Belief Scale appears to be a promising instrument for clinical research and the assessment of irrational beliefs.Ricks Warren, Ph.D. is the Director of the Anxiety Disorders Clinic, Lake Oswego, Oregon, and Associate Clinical Professor at the Oregon Graduate School of Professional Psychology, Pacific University. George D. Zgourides, M.A., is a doctoral student in clinical psychology at Pacific University of Forest Grove, Oregon and an associate therapist at the Anxiety Disorders Clinic of Lake Oswego, Oregon.     

Determinants of Mediator Behavior: A Test of the Strategic Choice Model1

The present study simulated an organizational dispute to test 12 hypotheses about mediator behavior that were derived from the strategic choice model of mediation. This model is based on the assumption that mediators have four basic strategies to resolve disputes: (a) integrate, which involves a search for mutually acceptable outcomes; (b) press, which involves lowering one or both parties' aspirations; (c) compensate, which involves offering positive benefits in exchange for concessions; and (d) inaction, which involves letting the parties handle the dispute by themselves. The major proposition of the model is that two factors, the mediator's assessment of the likelihood of a mutually acceptable agreement and the mediator's concern for the parties' aspirations, interact to predict mediator behavior. Nine of the 12 hypotheses derived from the model were supported. Pressing by mediators occurred most when mediators had a low estimate of the likelihood of agreement in combination with a low concern for the parties' aspirations. Compensating occurred most when mediators had a low estimate of the likelihood of agreement in combination with a high concern for the parties' aspirations. Inaction occurred most when the mediators' estimate of the likelihood of agreement was high and their concern for the parties' aspirations was low. Integrating occurred most when the mediators had a high concern for the parties' aspirations.     

Fundamentalist religion and its effect on mental health

The national self-help group, Fundamentalists Anonymous (F.A.), has focused attention upon mental problems that may be caused or exacerbated by authoritarian religion. In this article we outline assertions about the mental problems caused by membership in fundamentalist religion, illustrate these with two case histories, briefly discuss intervention strategies, and describe conceptual and empirical issues. While former members have presented problems severe enough to warrant professional treatment, a causal link between their symptoms and their religious membership has not yet been established, because there is little empirical work on the subject.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the annual meeting of the American Psychological Association in New York in August 1987.The authors express gratitude to Stephen Strack, Ph.D.; Robert Meagher, Ph.D.; Herman Feifel, Ph.D.; and Ted Schoenberger, M.D., for their helpful comments on previous drafts of this paper.     

Interfacing Apple and IBM computers for the analysis of clinical biofeedback

This paper demonstrates a method of transferring research data from a remote clinic to a large university mainframe for data manipulation and statistical analysis. Data collected by an Apple //e computer were transferred to an IBM 3031 mainframe by sending data files to an IBM PC by telephone modem or by direct hardwire connection to the PC. The IMB PC performed data-formatting routines and then uploaded the files to the mainframe for storage. Advantages and disadvantages of sending data over telephone lines via a modem are discussed.     

Single-subject statistical analysis of computer-assisted biofeedback

Single-subject statistics were used to analyze physiological data [electromyographic (EMG) temperature] recorded from two patients receiving computer-assisted biofeedback treatment in a clinic. When the data were analyzed by an ANOVA method or a regression technique, the results demonstrated that both patients learned to significantly reduce EMG levels. The rationale of using single-subject statistics is discussed, and the applicability of the statistical technique to the clinic population is illustrated.     

The pathological left-handedness syndrome

A clinical syndrome of pathological left-handedness (PLH) is proposed to identify the pattern of correlative changes in lateral development associated with early brain injury in some manifest left-handers. This syndrome is believed to be caused by a hemispheric lesion that is predominantly left-sided (or bilateral asymmetric), which onsets before Age 6, and which encroaches upon the critical speech zones of the frontotemporal/frontoparietal cortex. The pattern of changes may include any or all of the following features: shifts in manual dominance, trophic changes in the extremities, transfer of hemispheric speech, and/or intrahemispheric reorganization of visuospatial cognitive functions. Although some of these correlates of PLH have long been known, they have not been recognized as an interrelated pattern of traits that constitute a clinical syndrome. Identification of these individuals, all manifest left-handers, will be shown to have implications for diagnosis/remediation and for models of recovery of function.     

Statistical consistency and hypothesis testing for nonmetric multidimensional scaling

The properties of nonmetric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) are explored by specifying statistical models, proving statistical consistency, and developing hypothesis testing procedures. Statistical models with errors in the dependent and independent variables are described for quantitative and qualitative data. For these models, statistical consistency often depends crucially upon how error enters the model and how data are collected and summarized (e.g., by means, medians, or rank statistics). A maximum likelihood estimator for NMDS is developed, and its relationship to the standard Shepard-Kruskal estimation method is described. This maximum likelihood framework is used to develop a method for testing the overall fit of the model.