The conjunction fallacy? A reply to Bar-Hillel

In her commentary on our article, Bar-Hillel (1991) argues that our normative interpretation of the Lindaproblem is inaccurate and that the representativeness heuristic can account for all of the relevant data. I argue that the normative interpretation of the Linda problem remains slippery and that representativeness fails to account for much of the data. Furthermore, substantial evidence supports our suggestion that subjects use different underlying models in estimating likelihoods in different con problems.     

Developmental epidemiologically based preventive trials: Baseline modeling of early target behaviors and depressive symptoms

Describes a conceptual framework for identifying and targeting developmental antecedents in early childhood that have been shown in previous work to predict delinquency and violent behavior, heavy drug use, depression, and other psychiatric symptoms and possibly disorders in late adolescence and into adulthood. Criteria are described that guided choices of targets for two epidemiologically based, randomized preventive trials carried out in 19 elementary schools in the eastern half of Baltimore, involving more than 2,400 first-grade children over the course of first and second grades. Baseline models derived from the first of two cohorts show the evolving patterns of concurrence among the target antecedents. The central role of concentration problems emerged. From Fall to Spring in first grade, concentration problems led to shy and aggressive behavior and poor achievement in both genders and to depressive symptoms among girls. There was evidence for reciprocal relationships in girls. For example, depressive symptoms led to poor achievement in both girls and boys, whereas poor achievement led to depressive symptoms in girls but not boys, at least over the first-grade year. These results provide important epidemiological data relevant to the developmental paths leading to the problem outcomes and suggest preventive trials.     

A developmental study of the effects of irrelevant information on speeded classification

The study examined how well subjects were able to ignore the presence of irrelevant stimulus information as a function of age. Children aged 6, 9, and 12, as well as adult subjects sorted cards with one binary dimension relevant, and zero, one, or two dimensions irrelevant. Speed of classification was measured. Significant effects of age, sex, number of irrelevant dimensions, and relevant dimension on speed of classification were obtained, as well as a number of interactions of these variables. The most important finding was that the presence of irrelevant information interfered with the performance of the task by child subjects and that the magnitude of the interference declined with age. The results were interpreted as implying that developmental trends in attention may be most clearly demonstrated in tasks which require speeded processing of stimuli. The ease of administration of the speeded classification task, coupled with the clear developmental trends obtained, recommend this paradigm as a useful one with which to study the development of selective attention.     

Enhancement and summation in the perception of two successive vibrotactile stimuli

Enhancement and summation were found to be fundamentally different perceptual processes affecting the sensation magnitude of two successive vibrotactile stimuli. Enhancement, defined operationally as an increment in the subjective magnitude of one stimulus due to the presentation of a prior stimulus, and summation, defined as an increment in overall subjective magnitude of the two stimuli, were measured for sinusoidal vibration of the thenar eminence of the hand. The effect of summation was maximum when the two stimuli greatly differed in frequency, whereas maximum enhancement effects were found when both stimuli were close in frequency. The summation effect showed little decay as the interstimulus interval was increased to as much as 500 msec, whereas enhancement effects decayed to zero at approximately 500 msec. Results were similar to those obtained in comparable studies of audition and support the hypothesis that there are at least two distinct information-processing channels for the perception of cutaneous vibration.     

Memory trace strength and response biasing in short-term motor memory

Two experiments, which attempted to create differential memory trace strengths in a response biasing paradigm, were performed. After the presentation of the criterion location, an interpolated target was presented which was either ±40 deg from the criterion. The S’s task was to attend to both targets and recall each when instructed. The first experiment involved strengthening the criterion trace via repetition (0, 5, or 14 rep.) while the second involved providing additional feedback via visual, auditory, and heightened kinesthetic cues. In the initial experiment, a Repetition by Response Biasing interaction revealed that repetition systematically reduced error shifts at recall. The second experiment found that, in the combined feedback and visual conditions, response biasing was reduced. It seems feasible to suggest that both studies successfully manipulated memory trace strength which appears to be one determiner of error shifts at recall.     

Maximizing the coefficient of generalizability in multi-facet decision studies

For random-model, fully-crossed, two- and three-facet experimental designs the following two problems were considered. First, equations were developed for determining the optimal number of conditions of a facet for maximizing the coefficient of generalizability under the constraint that the total number of observations per subject is constant. Second, the problem of determining the minimum number of observations per subject for a specified generalizability coefficient is solved for the two-facet crossed design.     

Focal and nonfocal processing of color and form

Langley Porter Neuropychtatrte Institute, University of California, San Francisco. Californta 94122 Response latencies to color are usually shorter than those to form. but sometimes this difference is absent or reversed. Three experiments investigated whether these differences result from differential susceptibility of color and form to extra focal processing. Experiment I showed shorter same-difference latencies to color than to form when two stimuli were presented simultaneously. This difference disappeared or reversed when the two stimuh appeared sequentially. Experiment II. using a multistimulus matching task, found that differences between response latencies to form and color were minimal at the center of the display and increased peripherally. Experiment III showed that eye movements were more frequent in matching forms than colors. Tasks that produced many eye movements had long average latencies, but the relationship between eye movements and latency was not a simple one. There was evidence both for parallel and serial strategies tn the use of the eyes to gather information. The results of these experiments are considered in relation to a theory of distributed attention.     

Suppression of ethanol self-administration in alcoholics by contingent time-out from social interactions

In a residential research ward setting six volunteer chronic alcoholics were given daily access to 17 alcoholic drinks provided that a minimum of 40 min elapsed between receiving successive drinks. Each drink contained 1 oz 95-proof ethanol in orange juice. During baseline phases subjects were free to drink and socialize on the dayroom. However, during social time-out phases subjects were not permitted to socialize for the 40 min period following receipt of each drink. This contingent social time-out manipulation was systematically replicated across three conditions which varied with respect to the number of non-contingent ward privileges available. The results show that contingent social time-out suppressed drinking; and its effectiveness depended directly upon the conditions of available privileges. Within individual subjects, contingent time-out was increasingly effective in suppressing drinking as the available privileges were increasingly restricted.