What to do with a forecast?

In the literature one finds two non-equivalent responses to forecasts; deference and updating. Herein it is demonstrated that, under certain conditions, both responses are entirely determined by one’s beliefs as regards the calibration of the forecaster. Further it is argued that the choice as to whether to defer to, or update on, a forecast is determined by the aim of the recipient of that forecast. If the aim of the recipient is to match their credence with the prevailing objective chances, they should defer to the forecast; if it is to maximize the veritistic value of their beliefs, they should update on the forecast.     

Exploring Differential Subgroup Functioning on SAT Writing Items: What Happens When English Is Not a Test Taker's Best Language?

The purpose of this study is to explore patterns in model-data fit related to subgroups of test takers from a large-scale writing assessment. Using data from the SAT, a calibration group was randomly selected to represent test takers who reported that English was their best language from the total population of test takers (N = 322,011). A reference scale for the items was constructed based on EBL responses. Response behaviors of test takers who reported that English was not their best language (ENBL) were examined in relationship to this reference scale. This study illustrates the use of differential subgroup analyses to identify patterns related to person misfit within subgroups, as well as subsets of items, that may affect the validity of writing scores for ENBL test takers. The methodology described here offers an approach that can be used to explore, understand, and improve the validity of scores obtained from ENBL test takers in large-scale writing assessments.     

Terms of the debate on the format and structure of visual memory

Our ability to actively maintain information in visual memory is strikingly limited. There is considerable debate about why this is so. As with many questions in psychology, the debate is framed dichotomously: Is visual working memory limited because it is supported by only a small handful of discrete “slots” into which visual representations are placed, or is it because there is an insufficient supply of a “resource” that is flexibly shared among visual representations? Here, we argue that this dichotomous framing obscures a set of at least eight underlying questions. Separately considering each question reveals a rich hypothesis space that will be useful for building a comprehensive model of visual working memory. The questions regard (1) an upper limit on the number of represented items, (2) the quantization of the memory commodity, (3) the relationship between how many items are stored and how well they are stored, (4) whether the number of stored items completely determines the fidelity of a representation (vs. fidelity being stochastic or variable), (5) the flexibility with which the memory commodity can be assigned or reassigned to items, (6) the format of the memory representation, (7) how working memories are formed, and (8) how memory representations are used to make responses in behavioral tasks. We reframe the debate in terms of these eight underlying questions, placing slot and resource models as poles in a more expansive theoretical space.     

Social support-oriented coping and resilience for self-harm protection among adolescents

The study aimed to investigate the extent to which social support-focused coping and resilience can predict lower risk for self-harm by at-risk adolescents. Participants were 962 high school learners from nine high schools in the Free State Province, South Africa (female = 57.9 %; black = 70.7 %; mean age = 16.34 years). They completed the Revised Coping Schemas Inventory and the Resiliency Scale for Children and Adolescents. Logistic regression analysis was computed to predict risk for self-harm from social support-focused coping and resilience. The results indicate that higher levels of social support predict lower risk for adolescent self-harm. Social support-oriented coping and resilience predicted tension-reduction and emotional reactivity. Social support-focused coping seems to have an influence in lowering the risk of self-harm amongst adolescents.     

Age differences in the neural response to emotional distraction during working memory encoding

Age-related declines in attention and working memory (WM) are well documented and may be worsened by the occurrence of distracting information. Emotionally valenced stimuli may have particularly strong distracting effects on cognition. We investigated age-related differences in emotional distraction using task-fMRI. WM performance in older adults was lower for emotional compared with neutral distractors, suggesting a disproportional impairment elicited by emotional task-irrelevant information. Critically, older adults were particularly distracted by task-irrelevant positive information, whereas the opposite pattern was found for younger adults. Age groups differed markedly in the brain response to emotional distractors; younger adults activated posterior cortical regions and the striatum, and older adults activated frontal regions. Also, an age by valence interaction was found for IFG and ACC, suggesting differential modulation of attention to task-relevant emotional information. These results provide new insights into age-related changes in emotional processing and the ability to resolve interference from emotional distraction.     

The Influence of Rater Effects in Training Sets on the Psychometric Quality of Automated Scoring for Writing Assessments

Automated essay scoring engines (AESEs) are becoming increasingly popular as an efficient method for performance assessments in writing, including many language assessments that are used worldwide. Before they can be used operationally, AESEs must be “trained” using machine-learning techniques that incorporate human ratings. However, the quality of the human ratings used to train the AESEs is rarely examined. As a result, the impact of various rater effects (e.g., severity and centrality) on the quality of AESE-assigned scores is not known. In this study, we use data from a large-scale rater-mediated writing assessment to examine the impact of rater effects on the quality of AESE-assigned scores. Overall, the results suggest that if rater effects are present in the ratings used to train an AESE, the AESE scores may replicate these effects. Implications are discussed in terms of research and practice related to automated scoring.     

Crossing Boundaries Online in Romantic Relationships: An Exploratory Study of The Perceptions of Impact on Partners by Cyberstalking Offenders

As technology has become an ever-present facet in the lives of young people, they have become reliant on it to form and maintain relationships. The present study explored the perceptions of cyberstalking offenders on their own romantic relationships of their offending behaviors utilizing General Theory of Crime and Social Learning Theory. Results indicated that low self-control is a significant predictor of perceiving a negative impact by a victim, such as breaking up the relationship or taking revenge on the offender, as offenders with low self-control do not believe their behaviors would have a negative impact.     

Eight-Year Latent Class Trajectories of Academic and Social Functioning in Children with Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder

We examined trajectories of academic and social functioning in children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) to identify those who might be at risk for especially severe levels of academic and social impairment over time. We estimated a series of growth mixture models using data from two subsamples of children participating in the NIMH Collaborative Multisite Multimodal Treatment Study of Children with ADHD (MTA) including those with at least baseline and 96-month data for reading and mathematics achievement (n = 392; 77.3% male; M age = 7.7; SD = 0.8) or social skills ratings from teachers (n = 259; 74.9% male; M age = 7.6; SD = 0.8). We compared latent trajectories for children with ADHD to mean observed trajectories obtained from a local normative (i.e., non-ADHD) comparison group (n = 289; 80.6% male; M age = 9.9; SD = 1.1). Results indicated six latent trajectory classes for reading and mathematics and four classes for teacher social skills ratings. There was not only a relationship between trajectories of inattention symptoms and academic impairment, but also a similarly strong association between trajectory classes of hyperactive-impulsive symptoms and achievement. Trajectory class membership correlated with socio-demographic and diagnostic characteristics, inattention and hyperactive-impulsive symptom trajectories, externalizing behavior in school, and treatment receipt and dosage. Although children with ADHD display substantial heterogeneity in their reading, math, and social skills growth trajectories, those with behavioral and socio-demographic disadvantages are especially likely to display severe levels of academic and social impairment over time. Evidence-based early screening and intervention that directly address academic and social impairments in elementary school-aged children with ADHD are warranted. The ClinicalTrials.gov identifier is NCT00000388.