An evaluation of the reliability of probability judgments across response modes and over time

Despite the importance of probability assessment methods in behavioral decision theory and decision analysis, little attention has been directed at evaluating their reliability and validity. In fact, no comprehensive study of reliability has been undertaken. Since reliability is a necessary condition for validity, this oversight is significant. The present study was motivated by that oversight. We investigated the reliability of probability measures derived from three response modes: numerical probabilities, pie diagrams, and odds. Unlike previous studies, the experiment was designed to distinguish systematic deviations in probability judgments, such as those due to experience or practice, from random deviations. It was found that subjects assessed probabilities reliably for all three assessment methods regardless of the reliability measures employed. However, a small but statistically significant decrease over time in the magnitudes of assessed probabilities was observed. This effect was linked to a decrease in subjects overconfidence during the course of the experiment.     

A comparison of Guided Imaginal Coping and imaginal exposure in the treatment of panic disorder

The present study evaluated the efficacy of a new intervention, Guided Imaginal Coping (GIC), compared to imaginal exposure (IEX), and a waiting-list control (WLC) condition among 24 clinic outpatients meeting DSM-III-R criteria for panic disorder (PD) or PD with agoraphobia. GIC was the more consistently effective intervention, with individuals demonstrating significant improvement in frequency and severity of panic attacks (Pas) as well as significant reductions in physiological and subjective arousal to provocative imagery. Individuals in the IEX intervention demonstrated less consistent improvement on the dependent measures, while individuals in the WLC condition essentially remained unchanged. Both GIC and IEX were effective according to a composite measure of clinically significant improvement. However, only GIC was superior to the WLC condition when clinical improvement was defined as zero PAs at follow-up. These findings, while preliminary, suggest that GIC can be added to the armamentarium of effective approaches to treating PD.     

Utility maximization and melioration: Internalities in individual choice

How do people go about choosing between alternatives in relatively simple settings? This study explores some of the variables that past work suggests may be relevant. Volunteer subjects worked for money in six procedures in which the probability of a payment from either of two alternatives was 1.0, but the rate of pay (i.e. the speed with which a payment was delivered or the size of the payment) interacted with the subjects recent allocation of choices, which we define as the ‘internalities’. Because of the internalities, choosing the currently more profitable alternative did not maximize total earnings. Subjects were more likely to fail to maximize when the interaction between present pay and past choices was spread over longer sequences of choices, or when the reward variable was the speed, rather than the value, of each payment. Subjects often disregarded the internalities and were instead guided by the current yields of the two alternatives, which is a frequently observed tendency, called ‘melioration’, in experiments on choices by animals. The tendency toward melioration was only partially counteracted by explicit instructions on how to maximize earnings. We discuss a theoretical framework for melioration that postulates both motivational and cognitive sources.     

Nonsuicidal physically self-damaging acts in adolescents

To determine the frequency and correlates of nonsuicidal physically self-damaging acts in 12–14 year olds, a two stage epidemiologic survey with a self-administered questionnaire (N=3283) followed by a psychiatric interview of a subsample of the adolescents and their parents (N=444) was used. Prevalence estimates of interview validated nonsuicidal physically self-damaging acts were 2.46% in males and 2.79% in females. Significant relationships were found between nonsuicidal physically self-damaging acts and suicidal ideation, major depression and undesirable life events. Data suggest that physically self-damaging acts occur at substantial rates during early adolescence. The strong correlation between nonsuicidal self-destructive acts and both suicidal ideation and major depression clarifies prior conflicting reports in the literature and suggests that a history of self-damaging acts should be taken into consideration when evaluating for possible depression and suicide risk.     

Limits of focused attention in three-dimensional space

The present experiment examined the shape of the attentional gradient in three-dimensional space. Subjects performed a response-compatibility task in which they were instructed to respond to a centrally located target and ignore flanking distractors. The irrelevant distractors were presented at combinations of seven different depths, three different horizontal separations, and three different vertical separations relative to the target. Depth was varied in a stereoscopic display viewed through polarized glasses. Overall, the size of the response-compatibility effect decreased with increased separation in all three dimensions. Interestingly, the response-compatibility effect was larger for horizontal separations than for vertical separations and was larger for crossed disparities than for uncrossed disparities. The results suggest an elliptical focus of attention, with steeper gradients in the vertical dimensions than in the horizontal dimensions. In addition, the results suggest, along the vertical dimension, a steeper gradient for objects located beyond the focus of attention relative to that for objects located between the observer and the focus of attention.     

Dynamic spatial performance and general intelligence

A computerized video-game-like dynamic spatial ability measure and a paper-and-pencil group test of intelligence were administered to 94 university students. The purpose of the study was threefold: (a) to evaluate the reliability of the dynamic spatial measure; (b) to investigate the extent to which the dynamic spatial measure is saturated with variance associated with traditional measures of fluid and crystallized intellectual ability; and (c) to explore the possibility that dynamic computer based performance measures define factors that are distinct from those associated with traditional paper-and-pencil measures. The number of times the participant hit a moving target served as the dependent variable for the dynamic spatial measure. Number of hits proved to be correlated with Performance IQ, but was not significantly correlated with Verbal IQ. Maximum likelihood factor analysis revealed that the dynamic spatial measure did not load substantially on a factor of general intellectual ability but provided additional evidence that it is related to a performance component.     

Behavior at 10 and 13 years of age for children with low birth weight

This study was based on data from a longitudinal research program. The cohort consisted of 874 normal children in an entire school grade in a Swedish community. The aim of the study was to investigate the relation between birth weight and behavior at school, for all children and for each sex separately. The results identified specific aspects of behaviour disorder significantly related to low birth weight (LBW) for children at the age of 10 but not at the age of 13. When the sexes were separated, there were no relations between birth weight and deviant behaviour for boys of low birth weight as compared to boys of normal birth weight, while girls of low birth weight showed specific behavioural disorders at age 10 as compared to girls of normal birth weight. For girls reared in families of low parental socioeconomic status, aggressiveness and motor restlessness at age 10 but not at age 13 was also present. Further analyses showed that girls born small-for-gestational age showed lack of school motivation and concentration difficulties both at age 10 and age 13.