The Testing Principle: Inductive Reasoning and the Ellsberg Paradox

We postulate the Testing Principle : that individuals ''act like statisticians'' when they face uncertainty in a decision problem, ranking alternatives to the extent that available evidence allows. The Testing Principle implies that completeness of preferences, rather than the sure-thing principle, is violated in the Ellsberg Paradox. In the experiment, subjects chose between risky and uncertain acts in modified Ellsberg-type urn problems, with sample information about the uncertain urn. Our results show, consistent with the Testing Principle, that the uncertain urn is chosen more often when the sample size is larger, holding constant a measure of ambiguity (proportion of balls of unknown colour in the urn). The Testing Principle rationalises the Ellsberg Paradox. Behaviour consistent with the principle leads to a reduction in Ellsberg-type violations as the statistical quality of sample information is improved, holding ambiguity constant. The Testing Principle also provides a normative rationale for the Ellsberg paradox that is consistent with procedural rationality.     

An exploration into the influence of academic and social values, procrastination, and perceived school belongingness on academic performance

The results of a structural equation model showed that a tendency to procrastinate, assessed early in college students’ first term, was positively related to social values, assessed as concerns over social exclusion, but was negatively related to academic task values and grade goal-setting. The results suggest that procrastination may be a partial mediator of the influence of academic and social values on perceived school belongingness. In addition, the tendency to procrastinate had a direct negative relationship with self-regulatory self-efficacy and perceived school belongingness and was positively related to perceived stress near the end of the term. There was also a statistically significant negative total effect of procrastination on performance-approach and mastery-approach goal orientation and end-of-term grade point average (GPA). Statistically significant positive total effects of performance-approach and mastery-approach achievement goal orientations on GPA were found. However, while a statistically significant direct positive effect of performance-approach orientation on GPA was found, a direct relationship between mastery-approach orientation and GPA was not statistically significant.     

The wisdom of hindsight and the limits of Humean constructivism

Ordinary normative discourse includes talk about the reasons for action we had in the past but only came to discover in hindsight. In some cases, we come to discover these reasons not because new information has come to light, but because our values have changed. Contemporary metaethical views, namely Street's Humean constructivism and Blackburn's and Gibbard's quasi-realism, have some difficulty accounting for these reasons and the claims we make about them. This difficulty hinges on the diachronic complexity of these reasons and claims. It cannot be the case that these reasons were constructed by the perspective we had in the past before our values changed. If there were no extant reasons in the past, then it would seem that our claims about them in the present cannot be true. Quasi-realists can account for the way in which reason claims purport to be true by appealing to a deflationary sense of truth and so can remain agnostic on the actual existence of these reasons. Nevertheless, Street argues that this agnosticism is inconsistent with the quasi-realists' naturalism that should have them reject the existence of such reasons. I argue that Street would suffer from an even more acute form of this inconsistency were she to account for reasons only discovered in hindsight. At best her view does no better than the view of her chosen rivals. At worst, it discounts reasons that are so central to our moral development that it fails to be plausible.     

Participant recruitment methods and statistical reasoning performance

Optimal Bayesian reasoning performance has reportedly been elusive, and a variety of explanations have been suggested for this situation. In a series of experiments, it is demonstrated that these difficulties with replication can be accounted for by differences in participant-sampling methodologies. Specifically, the best performances are obtained with students from top-tier, national universities who were paid for their participation. Performance drops significantly as these conditions are altered regarding inducements (e.g., using unpaid participants) or participant source (e.g., using participants from a second-tier, regional university). Honours-programme undergraduates do better than regular undergraduates within the same university, paid participation creates superior performance, and top-tier university students do better than students from lower ranked universities. Pictorial representations (supplementing problem text) usually have a slight facilitative effect across these participant manipulations. These results indicate that studies should take account of these methodological details and focus more on relative levels of performance rather than absolute performance.     

Immediate Feedback Assessment Technique Promotes Learning and Corrects Inaccurate first Responses

The Psychological Record - Multiple-choice testing procedures that do not provide corrective feedback facilitate neither learning nor retention. In Studies 1 and 2, the performance of participants...     

Shades and Shining: Thoughts on John Sallis's Shades – of Painting at the Limit

Continental Philosophy Review -     

Perception of correlated attributes involving African–American and white females' faces by 10‐month‐old infants

Thirty‐two 10‐month‐olds were habituated to stimuli containing an African–American female face or a white female face paired with a specific object. Test stimuli maintained or violated habituation stimuli pairings (i.e. categories). Results add to an emerging literature showing that 10‐month‐olds perceive categories of social information based on detection of correlated attributes. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.