Explaining High Conjunction Fallacy Rates: The Probability Theory Plus Noise Account

The conjunction fallacy occurs when people judge the conjunctive probability P(A ∧ B) to be greater than a constituent probability P(A), contrary to the norms of probability theory. This fallacy is a reliable, consistent and systematic part of people's probability judgements, attested in many studies over at least 40 years. For some events, these fallacies occur very frequently in people's judgements (at rates of 80% or more), while for other events, the fallacies are very rare (occurring at rates of 10% or less). This wide range of fallacy rates presents a challenge for current theories of the conjunction fallacy. We show how this wide range of observed fallacy rates can be explained by a simple model where people reason according to probability theory but are subject to random noise in the reasoning process. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Family Communication of BRCA1/2 Results and Family Uptake of BRCA1/2 Testing in a Diverse Population of BRCA1/2 Carriers

Previous studies examining communication of BRCA1/2 results with relatives and family uptake of BRCA1/2 testing have sampled from predominantly white, high SES cohorts ascertained solely from tertiary care centers. No studies have focused on family communication and testing among relatives of diverse BRCA1/2 carriers. We conducted structured interviews with 73 BRCA1/2 carriers identified at a public hospital and a tertiary cancer center. We asked participants if each first- and second-degree relative was aware of their BRCA1/2 results and whether or not each relative had tested. Generalized estimating equations identified rates and predictors of family communication and testing. Participants disclosed their test results to 73 % of 606 eligible relatives and 31 % of 514 eligible relatives tested. Communication and testing rates were similar for relatives of participants from the public hospital and the tertiary cancer center. Hospital site was not a significant predictor of either result disclosure or relative uptake of testing. African American and Asian/Pacific Islander participants were significantly less likely to disclose their results to their relatives; relatives of African American participants were significantly less likely to test. Addressing these disparities will require further research into the best ways to facilitate family communication and counsel at-risk relatives of racially and socioeconomically diverse BRCA1/2 mutation carriers.     

Predictors of relationship adjustment among couples coping with a high risk of developing breast/ovarian cancer

This study investigated the association between supportive and collaborative processes and dyadic adjustment in 94 women at increased risk of breast/ovarian cancer and their partners. Participants were recruited through two familial cancer clinics. They completed mailed, self-report questionnaires that included measures of psychological distress, dyadic adjustment (consensus, cohesion and satisfaction) and couple predictor variables (perceived support and team approach). Most couples reported average-to-high levels of consensus, cohesion and satisfaction, with a small proportion of couples (6.4%) reporting scores that reached clinically significant levels of dyadic distress. Greater perceived support was associated with better dyadic consensus and satisfaction, and dyadic cohesion and satisfaction were higher among couples who reported greater use of a team approach. General distress did not moderate the association between dyadic coping and relationship quality. There were no significant relationships between intra-couple congruence on support or team approach, and dyadic adjustment. Most couples had a functional relationship in the face of the current health stressor, although a subgroup may be at elevated risk of negative psychological consequences, including further relationship strain. The results highlight that dyadic coping strategies are important factors involved in the quality of couples' relationship following genetic counselling for breast/ovarian cancer risk.     

Religious Fundamentalism as Schema: Influences on Memory for Religious Information

Those with differing levels of religious fundamentalism (RF) may be selective in their memory for religious information. In Study 1, participants read a text about money or sex, with a judgmental or not-judgmental message. Higher RF was associated with more accurate recall and fewer intrusions. In Study 2, participants high or low in RF read texts about sex. High-RF participants had more accurate recall and fewer intrusions. However, high-RF participants had more recognition false alarms to sentences that were not presented. High RF may aid memory for religious information, but also increase familiarity of related but not presented information. Exposure to not-judgmental messages decreased RF scores, suggesting that textual messages can impact responses to fundamentalism scales.     

Careers education in higher education: Principles and practice

It is argued that careers education represents a distinctive new approach in careers guidance within higher education. A detailed analysis is presented of American and British experiments to date, dividing them into three groups: unit courses leading to credit, courses not leading to credit, and intensive experiences. Attention is also paid to the need to integrate formal group work of these kinds with other formal and informal learning experiences. Finally, an attempt is made to identify some crucial dilemmas and issues which need to be addressed if careers education is to be structured into the British higher education system.     

Book reviews

Gleitman, H. Psychology. New York: Norton, 1981. Pp. xxii + 840. £11.50. ISBN 0 393 95102 2.

Darley, J., Glucksberg, D., Kamin, L. And Kinchla, R., Psychology. Englewood Cliffs: Prentice Hall, 1981. Pp. xvi+65z. £ 413.95. ISBN o 13 733154 I.

Valenstein, E. S. (Ed.).The Psychosurgery Debate : Scientific, Legal, and Ethical Perspectives. Freeman: San Francisco. 1980. Pp. 594. £14.80 (hbk); £7.60 (pbk). ISBN 0 7167 1156 7.

Gregory, R. L. Mind in Science. London: Weidenfeld & Nicolson. 1981. £18.50. Pp. XIV+641. ISBN o 297 77825 0.

Oborne, D. J., Gruneberg, M. M. And Eiser, J. R. Research in Psychology and Medicine. Volume I Physical Aspects-Pain, Stress, Diagnosis and Organic Damage; Volume II Social Aspects-Attitudes, Communication, Care and Training. London : Academic Press. I979. Pp. 486 and 488. ISBN 0 12 523701 4 and ISBN 0 12 523702 02. £10.80 each.

Sarason, I. G. and Spielberger, C. D. Stress and Anxiety. Volume 7. Washington: Hemisphere Publishing Corporation. 1980. Pp. 308. $25.50. ISBN 0 89116 183 X.

Levitt, E. E.The Psychology of Anxiety, Second Edition. Hillsdale, New Jersey, Erlbaum Associates. 1980. Pp. 188. ISBN 0 89859 040 X.

McGuigan, F. J., Sime, W. E. and Wallace, J. M. (Eds). Stress and Tension Control. New York: Plenum. 1980. Pp. 320. $29.50. ISBN 0 306 40450 8.