Prediction of wins and losses in a series of field hockey games: A study of probability assessment quality and cognitive information-processing models of players

The ability of players in a competitive team sport to assess win/loss probabilities, and the role that feedback plays in improving the quality of their assessments are the major foci of this study. The paper describes a study of sequential probability assessments by members of a women's field hockey team participating in a championship series. Several classes of cognitive models of probability revision were postulated and tested. The results of the paper indicate that (1) players generally attain a high level of calibration in their assessments, (2) their assessments are reliable and of high quality, (3) those who systematically and sensitively revise their probabilities attain, on average, significantly higher quality forecasts than those who are more conservative in responding to feedback scores, and (4) most of those who systematically revise their assessments in response to feedback scores appear to employ myopic models utilizing information about only one team—either their own or their opponents.     

Barriers and Supports for Continuing in Mathematics and Science: Gender and Educational Level Differences

This article presents three studies that provide an in-depth examination of STEM-related supports and barriers. These studies constructed an instrument to identify male and female perceptions of the barriers and supports for pursuing coursework and/or careers in mathematics and sciences domains; to pilot test and refine that instrument; and then to explore gender differences in perceptions of supports and barriers at three different educational levels: middle school, high school, and college. Study 1 involved using literature reviews and in-depth interviews at the three educational levels to broadly identify perceived supports and barriers, and to develop a taxonomy of barrier and supports at each level. Based upon the taxonomy, study 2 involved the construction and pilot testing of a barriers and support instrument. Study 3 involved administering the revised instrument to a large sample of participants at each educational level. Results indicate both gender and developmental differences in perceptions of the barriers and supports for pursuing a math or science curriculum.