Individual differences in reverse Hindsight bias: I never thought something like chernobyl would happen. Did I?

Hindsight bias was studied in the context of the accident in the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, which took place on April 26th 1986. An individual difference factor which relates to the motivation to process information, need for cognition, was expected to moderate the occurrence of hindsight bias. Probability estimates of many casualties due to the use of nuclear power in The Netherlands were obtained from 212 individuals two months before the accident in Chernobyl. These estimates were compared with similar estimates made in hindsight by the same individuals five months after the accident. Loglinear Analyses reveal a systematic hindsight bias. However, the direction of the bias was contrary to expectations. In hindsight, individuals gave lower probabilities than they actually did two months before the Chernobyl accident. These results reveal a reverse hindsight bias. As hypothesized, need for cognition moderates hindsight bias: individuals low and medium in need for cognition express a systematic reverse hindsight bias, while individuals high in need for cognition do not. High need for cognition individuals also show higher literal consistency between the two measurements, which supports a memory explanation of the moderating effect of need for cognition.     

Marx,technocracy, and the corporatist ethos

Communism, in Marx' mind, did not mean simple liberation, but the economics of liberation. The realm of necessity (technē) was to become the primary field for emancipation (praxis), the latter taking form in new institutions, responsive to real socio-economic needs. In this sense, the problem of technocracy and the corporatist ethos in Marx are part of a broader discursive structure, which links the experiences of workers through the industrial revolution with the philosophies ofpraxis as they reach from Hegel through Marković.     

Many stimuli are frightening,but some are more frightening than others: The contributions of preparedness,dangerousness, and unpredictability to making a stimulus fearful

The nonrandom distribution of situational fears has been explained by evolutionary survival relevance of specific fears. Thirty-eight stimuli were taken from the literature on preparedness and were scored on fearfulness, objective dangerousness, and spatiotemporal unpredictability by three separate groups of students. The same items were scored on survival relevance by 15 biologists. Fearfulness of cues significantly correlated not only with survival relevance but also, and even more strongly, with dangerousness and unpredictability. While the fear/survival relevance association virtually disappeared when the unpredictability contribution was partialed out, the fear/unpredictability correlation was only marginally affected when controlling for survival relevance. This suggests that nonrandomness of feared stimuli may result from the spatiotemporal unpredictability that is attributed to these stimuli. The current practice of using snakes and spiders as phobia-relevant, and flowers and mushrooms as neutral, cues was not justified by the ratings of the 15 independent experts.This study was supported in part by a grant from the Dutch Organization for Fundamental Research (ZWO/Psychon, 560-268-001).     

MMPI profiles of adolescents charged with homicide

Study of adolescent violence has been impeded by failure to distinguish among the circumstances in which youth engage in violent behavior. The present study investigated MMPI profiles of 36 adolescent murderers and a control group of 18 adolescents charged with larceny. Homicide cases were subgrouped into those who committed homicide secondary to another crime (e.g., robbery or rape) and those who acted in the context of interpersonal conflict with the victim. While there were no significant differences between homicide and larceny groups, crime and conflict subgroups were significantly different on scales F, Hs, Hy, and Sc.     

Relaxation therapy for tension headache in the elderly: a prospective study

We evaluated the effects of an 8-week progressive muscle-relaxation therapy regimen on the headache activity of 10 elderly tension-headache subjects. Posttreatment assessment at 3 months revealed significant decreases in overall headache activity (50% or greater) in 7 subjects. Significant clinical or statistical prepost differences, or both, were also found for the number of headache-free days, peak headache activity, and medication index. This is the first prospective study of tension headache in an elderly population, and, unlike previous retrospective studies, it suggests that relaxation therapy may be an effective intervention in the treatment of such headaches.     

Body image,dieting tendencies,and sex role traits in urban black women

The present study examined body image satisfaction, dieting tendencies, and sex role traits among a sample of black urban women. While women who felt “too fat” were more likely than other women to engage in both restrictive and nonrestrictive dieting tendencies, in general, the women's body weight and body image did not compel them to utilize extremely restrictive dieting practices. A sizable proportion of the sample reported body image dissatisfaction and weight concerns, yet this did not appear to exert an overwhelmingly negative influence over other aspects of their lives, such as participation in sports, exercise, and sexual activity. Body image satisfaction and sex role traits were related. Dieting tendencies were also related with body image satisfaction. These findings and implications for further research are discussed.     

Solving the rod-and-frame test in a tachistoscopic presentation: Effects of stimulus size and perceptual style

This research was undertaken to demonstrate, with correlational evidence, that presenting the rod-and-frame test (RIT) with either limited (tachistoscopic) or unlimited (Oltman’s, 1968, portable RFT) exposure time does not significantly affect the ranking of subjects. The underlying hypothesis is that the intersubject variability of performance on the portable RFT is due essentially to differences in sensitivity to the optostatic vection that appears automatically and almost immediately. Results of the tachistoscopic test show that the effect of angular size of the stimulus is similar to that described in the literature for unlimited time situations, and that subjects’ ranking is very similar regardless of the exposure time (W = .80). However, although a difference is observed between the means of low and high achievers in both types of RFT, intraindividual intertask homogeneity (correlation coefficient) is not verified in each of these subgroups. From these results, one can distinguish two processes in the RFT: the first, vections, has to do with the subject’s postural orientation and seems to playa great role in organizing interindividual differences. The second process, a more cognitive one, has a less striking effect and has to do with the selection of reference frames in perceptual organization.     

Is rapid performance improvement across short precue-target delays due to masking from peripheral precues?

The role of lateral masking in more rapid performance improvement with peripheral than with central precuing was investigated. A peripheral precue to the inside of the target location provided less masking at zero precue-target delay than a precue to the outside (experiment 1) or a precue involving a partial target at the target location (experiment 2). There was no significant interaction between precue-target delay and precue type in a comparison of inside precues and precues involving a briefly-brightened box around the target location, although overall performance was significantly poorer with the latter (experiment 3). Performance was better at short precue-target delays with inside precues than with central precues (experiment 4), yet it did not improve significantly more rapidly. Minimizing lateral masking with peripheral precues thus eliminates the dramatic performance improvement sometimes observed across short precue-target delays, causing performance to be consistently better than with central precues across these delays.     

Line bisecting as a predictor of personal optimism and desirability of risky behaviors.

Our goal was to test whether current hemisphere predominance is a predictor of scores on standardized measures of personal optimism and preference for risk. In two between-subject experiments, current hemisphere predominance was measured by the direction and extent of line bisecting errors. Pearson correlations and median splits of the line bisecting errors showed significantly greater personal optimism and preference for risk with left hemisphere predominance. These results support previous research in which manipulation of hemisphere predominance produced similar effects on personal optimism in normal individuals and on risk taking in lesioned and normal samples. We conclude that the association of optimism and risk with left hemisphere predominance can be observed in resting as well as in manipulated situations.