Probabilistic reasoning,affirmative bias and belief in precognitive dreams

Three hundred and eighty‐six participants were interviewed about their experience of dreams that seem to predict an event in the future, and their belief about whether such dreams can be explained naturally or paranormally. For those without university education, participants who had had a dream that seemed to predict the future (termed experiencers) and believers in paranormal explanations for such dreams (termed believers) made more errors on a probabilistic reasoning task about a lottery. Contrary to the chance baseline shift hypothesis experiencers and believers did not give lower estimates than non‐experiencers and non‐believers for the frequency with which others would answer three simple personal questions affirmatively. However, they were more likely to answer the three simple personal questions affirmatively about themselves than were non‐experiencers and non‐believers, which suggests an affirmative bias. This affirmative bias either affects paranormal experience and belief, or is a confound in the methods used in assessing experience and belief. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A dialogical route to logical pluralism

This paper argues that adopting a particular dialogical account of logical consequence quite directly gives rise to an interesting form of logical pluralism, the form of pluralism in question arising out of the requirement that deductive proofs be explanatory.

     

A technique for criterion-keying and selecting test items

For multiple-choice tests where noa priori key exists, the initial selection of a key for maximum validity may be made on the basis of the number of persons choosing each alternative and their mean criterion score. The keying formula is derived. Once the initial keying has been done, further precision in keying and item selection may use, in addition, the mean total test score for persons choosing each alternative. Item-selection formulas suggested by Horst and by Gulliksen for maximizing test validity are both in the form of a ratio, an item-validity index divided by an item-reliability index. The formula derived here is shown to be equivalent to the numerators of these formulas. The expression in the denominators uses the total test score. Although a radical appears in the denominator of Horst's formula and not in the denominator of Gulliksen's formula, both of them select the same items in practice.The author gratefully acknowledges the suggestions and criticisms of Dr. Harold Gulliksen, Research Adviser at the Educational Testing Service.     

A cross-modal weapon focus effect: The influence of a weapon's presence on memory for auditory information

To examine whether a weapon's presence impairs witnesses' memory for auditory information (as it impairs memory for visual information), we conducted two experiments in which undergraduates watched one version of a videotape depicting a male target who held either a weapon or a neutral object and conversed with a female character. The semantic content of his remarks was either easy or difficult to comprehend. The weapon's presence did not affect voice identification accuracy or memory for the target's vocal characteristics (e.g., pitch, loudness, speech rate) but did worsen memory for semantic content in the Difficult Comprehension condition. Our results can be explained by multiple resource models of attention, which propose separate resource "pools" for different sensory modalities.     

The relationship between sleep problems and working memory in children born very preterm

In two studies, the relationship between sleep and working memory performance was investigated in children born very preterm (i.e., gestation less than 32 weeks) and the possible mechanisms underlying this relationship. In Study 1, parent-reported measures of snoring, night-time sleep quality, and daytime sleepiness were collected on 89 children born very preterm aged 6 to 7 years. The children completed a verbal working memory task, as well as measures of processing speed and verbal storage capacity. Night-time sleep quality was found to be associated with verbal working memory performance over and above the variance associated with individual differences in processing speed and storage capacity, suggesting that poor sleep may have an impact on the executive component of working memory. Snoring and daytime sleepiness were not found to be associated with working memory performance. Study 2 introduced a direct measure of executive functioning and examined whether sleep problems would differentially impact the executive functioning of children born very preterm relative to children born to term. Parent-reported sleep problems were collected on 43 children born very preterm and 48 children born to term (aged 6 to 9 years). Problematic sleep was found to adversely impact executive functioning in the very preterm group, while no effect of sleep was found in the control group. These findings implicate executive dysfunction as a possible mechanism by which problematic sleep adversely impacts upon cognition in children born very preterm, and suggest that sleep problems can increase the cognitive vulnerability already experienced by many of these children.     

Toying with the Toolbox: How Metaphysics Can Still Make a Contribution

Current analytic metaphysics has been claimed to be, at best, out of touch with modern physics, at worst, actually in conflict with the latter (Callender, in: French, Saatsi (eds) The continuum companion to the philosophy of science, Continuum, London, 2011; Ladyman and Ross Every thing must go: metaphysics naturalized, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2007). While agreeing with some of these claims, it has been suggested that metaphysics may still be of service by providing a kind of ‘toolbox’ of devices that philosophers of science can access in order to help provide an interpretation of theories in fundamental physics (French and McKenzie in Eur J Anal Philos 8:42–59, 2012; see also French and McKenzie, in: Bigaj, Wuthrich (eds) Metaphysics in contemporary physics, Rodopi, Amsterdam, 2015). In this context it has been argued that ‘standard’ forms of dispositionalism simply cannot be sustained in the context of modern physics but that certain ‘non-standard’ views may provide the resources to help explicate the sense in which physics may be regarded as ‘modally informed’. Here that suggestion will be further extended in order to consider the implications both with regard to the overall relevance of metaphysics given advances in science and for the prospects of a naturalised metaphysics more generally. In particular, this paper will focus on three concerns: (1) that the particular tools identified are not, in fact, ‘scientifically disinterested’ and thus that the distinction between ‘naturalised’ and ‘non-naturalised’ metaphysics is at best vague or poorly drawn; (2) that the usefulness of such tools depends on their being shaped to fit the relevant physics and thus the latter ‘guts’ metaphysics; (3) that if metaphysics does prove to be useful in this sense then we have no reason to scorn non-naturalised metaphysics to begin with.     

The Undecidability of Quantified Announcements

This paper demonstrates the undecidability of a number of logics with quantification over public announcements: arbitrary public announcement logic (APAL), group announcement logic (GAL), and coalition announcement logic (CAL). In APAL we consider the informative consequences of any announcement, in GAL we consider the informative consequences of a group of agents (this group may be a proper subset of the set of all agents) all of which are simultaneously (and publicly) making known announcements. So this is more restrictive than APAL. Finally, CAL is as GAL except that we now quantify over anything the agents not in that group may announce simultaneously as well. The logic CAL therefore has some features of game logic and of ATL. We show that when there are multiple agents in the language, the satisfiability problem is undecidable for APAL, GAL, and CAL. In the single agent case, the satisfiability problem is decidable for all three logics.     

Recursive Partitioning to Identify Potential Causes of Differential Item Functioning in Cross-National Data

Differential item functioning (DIF) assessment is key in score validation. When DIF is present scores may not accurately reflect the construct of interest for some groups of examinees, leading to incorrect conclusions from the scores. Given rising immigration, and the increased reliance of educational policymakers on cross-national assessments such as Programme for International Student Assessment, Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study, and Progress in International Reading Literacy Study (PIRLS), DIF with regard to native language is of particular interest in this context. However, given differences in language and cultures, assuming similar cross-national DIF may lead to mistaken assumptions about the impact of immigration status, and native language on test performance. The purpose of this study was to use model-based recursive partitioning (MBRP) to investigate uniform DIF in PIRLS items across European nations. Results demonstrated that DIF based on mother's language was present for several items on a PIRLS assessment, but that the patterns of DIF were not the same across all nations.     

Valuing the future: a MADA example involving nuclear waste storage

Intertemporal decision making involves decisions that have consequences that span several periods of time and often extend far into the future. The purpose of this paper is to discuss and highlight the differences associated with different evaluation methods designed to cope with the long-term impacts of a decision including discounting. The concepts and ideas are illustrated in the context of a decision about a nuclear waste facility. We show how applying different discounting methodologies can greatly affect the decision made, especially over long time periods. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.