A Meta-Analysis of Research on Hindsight Bias

We conducted a meta-analysis of research on hindsight bias to gain an up-to-date summary of the overall strength of hindsight effects and to test hypotheses about potential moderators of hindsight distortion. A total of 95 studies (83 published and 12 unpublished) were included, and 252 independent effect sizes were coded for moderator variables in 3 broad categories involving characteristics of the study, of measurement, and of the experimental manipulation. When excluding missing effect sizes, the overall mean effect size was Md = .39 with a 95% confidence interval of .36 to .42. Five main findings emerged: (a) effect sizes calculated from objective probability estimates were larger than effect sizes calculated from subjective probability estimates; (b) effect sizes of studies that used almanac questions were larger than effect sizes of studies that used real-world events or case histories; (c) studies that included neutral outcomes resulted in larger effect sizes than studies that used positive or negative outcomes; (d) studies that included manipulations to increase hindsight bias resulted in significantly larger effect sizes than studies in which there were no manipulations to reduce or increase hindsight bias; and (e) studies that included manipulations to reduce hindsight bias did not produce lower effect sizes. These findings contribute to our understanding of hindsight bias by updating the state of knowledge, widening the range of known moderator variables, identifying factors that may activate different mediating processes, and highlighting critical gaps in the research literature.     

Dispersed and Undispersed Dependency

Abstract

This study was aimed at developing a measure of Kelly's concept of dispersion of dependency and providing evidence for its usefulness in differentiating degree of dispersion of dependency. Smith and Grassle's (1977) adaptation of Hurlbert's diversity index, a measure used by biologists to differentiate degrees of species diversity, was applied to dependency grids, specifically “being helped” grids. The diversity index was shown to be both useful in differentiating prototypes of relatively dispersed and undispersed grids and robust. Furthermore, evidence was provided for its predictive validity using predictions made by Kelly concerning dependency construing associated with differences in dispersion of dependency. Greater dispersion of dependency was related to making more discriminations about dependencies, and undispersed dependency was related to relatively impermeable and preemptive construing. Thus the measure was shown to be satisfactory for identifying dispersion of dependency, such that, used in this context, it could be aptly renamed the dispersion of dependency index.     

Maternal Intergenerational Transmission of Childhood Multitype Maltreatment

Previous research suggests that child maltreatment is transmitted across familial generations. However, extant studies focused exclusively on single maltreatment subtypes, instead of the more common experience of multitype maltreatment. This limitation is addressed in the first known study to examine the maternal intergenerational transmission of childhood multitype maltreatment among 104 mothers and their children. Findings demonstrated that mothers' childhood multitype maltreatment directly predicted their children's multitype maltreatment, instead of having indirect effects through maternal romantic attachment dimension, intimate partner violence, and psychological distress. Mothers' childhood multitype maltreatment was also related to intimate partner violence and anxious romantic attachment but unrelated to psychological distress. Our findings highlight the need for clinical attention to the long-term generational effects of diverse childhood traumas.     

Exemplification, Then and Now

Exemplification can be found in ontologies from the ancient world, such as those of Plato and Aristotle, and more recent ontologies, in particular those that take what exists to be determined by the empiricist’s Principle of Acquaintance. This study examines some of the ways in which exemplification takes different forms in these different ontologies. Exemplification has also been criticized as an ontological category. This paper examines a number of these criticisms, to see the extent to which they are viable.     

Further Evidence Concerning Motivational Distortion on the Sixteen Personality Factor Primaries by Male Felons

A multiple regression analysis was used to determine the susceptibility of the 16 Personality Factor Test (16PF) to faking for a sample of male felons. The study is a replication of an earlier study of a similar sample. Motivational distortion (MID) correlated significantly with the 16 PF primary scores. The relationship was most evident when the structure coefficients rather than the beta weights were analyzed. The findings were consistent with the previous results which indicated a fairly high degree of support for the MD corrections provided in the manual. An important exception was that Dominance (E) was suppressed by individuals from both samples when MD was present.     

The Present Status of the Frontal Lobe

This study contrasted two models of prospective remembering: i.e., remembering in the future to perform an action that has been planned. High anxiety or discomfort is predicted by the first model to be associated with forgetting, and by the second model to be associated with remembering but not performing. Questionnaire data from 73 male and female college students support the second model (p < .01). For planned actions that were forgotten, there was an inverse relationship between importance and comfortableness (p < .01). Prospective remembering may be facilitated by reducing potential conflict between the importance and comfortableness of a planned action, involving other persons, and utilizing external retrieval cues.     

Emotional expression affects the accuracy of gaze perception

Emotional facial expressions are powerful social cues. Here we investigated how emotional expression affects the interpretation of eye gaze direction. Fifty-two observers judged where faces were looking by moving a slider on a measuring bar to the respective position. The faces displayed either an angry, happy, fearful or a neutral expression and were looking either straight at the observer, or were rotated 2°, 4°, 6° or 8° to the left and right. We found that happy faces were interpreted as directed closer to the observer, while fearful and angry faces were interpreted as directed further away. Judgments were most accurate for neutral faces, followed by happy, angry and fearful faces. These findings are discussed on the background of the “self-referential positivity bias”, suggesting that happy faces are preferably interpreted as directed towards the self while negative emotions are interpreted as directed further away.     

Resurrecting the tracking theories

Much of contemporary epistemology proceeds on the assumption that tracking theories of knowledge, such as those of Dretske and Nozick, are dead. The word on the street is that Kripke and others killed these theories with their counterexamples, and that epistemology must move in a new direction as a result. In this paper we defend the tracking theories against purportedly deadly objections. We detect life in the tracking theories, despite what we perceive to be a premature burial.     

Certain Emotional Factors in Learning and Efficiency

A group of measures duplicating the original battery of tests which Halstead used to obtain his four biological intelligence factors were given to a group of subjects with acute lateralized brain lesions. These results were compared to the results of the same battery when administered to subjects with chronic diffuse brain damage. This comparison demonstrated that the factors derived from brain damage testing are affected by (a) the subjects' mental abilities, (b) the sensitivity of the measures to brain damage in general, and (c) the lateralization of the damage.     

Loudness counts: Interactions between loudness,number magnitude,and space

ATOM (a theory of magnitude) suggests that magnitude information of different formats (numbers, space, and time) is processed within a generalized magnitude network. In this study we investigated whether loudness, as a possible indicator of intensity and magnitude, interacts with the processing of numbers. Small and large numbers, spoken in a quiet and a loud voice, were simultaneously presented to the left and right ear (Experiments 1a and 1b). Participants judged whether the number presented to the left or right ear was louder or larger. Responses were faster when the smaller number was spoken in a quiet voice, and the larger number in a loud voice. Thus, task-irrelevant numerical information influenced the processing of loudness and vice versa. This bi-directional link was also confirmed by classical SNARC paradigms (spatial–numerical association of response codes; Experiments 2a–2c) when participants again judged the magnitude or loudness of separately presented stimuli. In contrast, no loudness–number association was found in a parity judgment task. Regular SNARC effects were found in the magnitude and parity judgment task, but not in the loudness judgment task. Instead, in the latter task, response side was associated with loudness. Possible explanations for these results are discussed.