A Meta-Analysis of Research on Hindsight Bias

We conducted a meta-analysis of research on hindsight bias to gain an up-to-date summary of the overall strength of hindsight effects and to test hypotheses about potential moderators of hindsight distortion. A total of 95 studies (83 published and 12 unpublished) were included, and 252 independent effect sizes were coded for moderator variables in 3 broad categories involving characteristics of the study, of measurement, and of the experimental manipulation. When excluding missing effect sizes, the overall mean effect size was Md = .39 with a 95% confidence interval of .36 to .42. Five main findings emerged: (a) effect sizes calculated from objective probability estimates were larger than effect sizes calculated from subjective probability estimates; (b) effect sizes of studies that used almanac questions were larger than effect sizes of studies that used real-world events or case histories; (c) studies that included neutral outcomes resulted in larger effect sizes than studies that used positive or negative outcomes; (d) studies that included manipulations to increase hindsight bias resulted in significantly larger effect sizes than studies in which there were no manipulations to reduce or increase hindsight bias; and (e) studies that included manipulations to reduce hindsight bias did not produce lower effect sizes. These findings contribute to our understanding of hindsight bias by updating the state of knowledge, widening the range of known moderator variables, identifying factors that may activate different mediating processes, and highlighting critical gaps in the research literature.     

Dispersed and Undispersed Dependency

Abstract

This study was aimed at developing a measure of Kelly's concept of dispersion of dependency and providing evidence for its usefulness in differentiating degree of dispersion of dependency. Smith and Grassle's (1977) adaptation of Hurlbert's diversity index, a measure used by biologists to differentiate degrees of species diversity, was applied to dependency grids, specifically “being helped” grids. The diversity index was shown to be both useful in differentiating prototypes of relatively dispersed and undispersed grids and robust. Furthermore, evidence was provided for its predictive validity using predictions made by Kelly concerning dependency construing associated with differences in dispersion of dependency. Greater dispersion of dependency was related to making more discriminations about dependencies, and undispersed dependency was related to relatively impermeable and preemptive construing. Thus the measure was shown to be satisfactory for identifying dispersion of dependency, such that, used in this context, it could be aptly renamed the dispersion of dependency index.     

Further Evidence Concerning Motivational Distortion on the Sixteen Personality Factor Primaries by Male Felons

A multiple regression analysis was used to determine the susceptibility of the 16 Personality Factor Test (16PF) to faking for a sample of male felons. The study is a replication of an earlier study of a similar sample. Motivational distortion (MID) correlated significantly with the 16 PF primary scores. The relationship was most evident when the structure coefficients rather than the beta weights were analyzed. The findings were consistent with the previous results which indicated a fairly high degree of support for the MD corrections provided in the manual. An important exception was that Dominance (E) was suppressed by individuals from both samples when MD was present.     

The Present Status of the Frontal Lobe

This study contrasted two models of prospective remembering: i.e., remembering in the future to perform an action that has been planned. High anxiety or discomfort is predicted by the first model to be associated with forgetting, and by the second model to be associated with remembering but not performing. Questionnaire data from 73 male and female college students support the second model (p < .01). For planned actions that were forgotten, there was an inverse relationship between importance and comfortableness (p < .01). Prospective remembering may be facilitated by reducing potential conflict between the importance and comfortableness of a planned action, involving other persons, and utilizing external retrieval cues.     

Beyond pluralism: psychoanalysis and the workings of mind

Subjects that Freud excluded or incompletely explored have been sites of theoretical expansion in over a century of observation: the role of the other, the self, the preoedipal period, action, the countertransference, limits to neutrality/anonymity/abstinence, the loci of the analytic drama, effects beyond interpretation, agency, and basic needs (versus wishes). These developments have led to conflicting theories and sect-like groupings within the field. Group psychological processes underlying this are discussed; and a broad and inclusive view of psychoanalysis is proposed under the heading of the study of the workings of mind. Additionally, substantial integrative proposals are offered with respect to the central tasks of individual development, theories of mind, the relational turn, and aspects of technique.     

Trinity Talk, Again

Abstract :  The doctrine of the Trinity has, in the past couple of decades, reclaimed its central place in Christian God talk. Theologians are now using it to render every doctrine more explicitly Christian, and to sharpen interreligious dialogue. There is a strong drive toward vindicating the doctrine as relevant, but also a recognition that if it is truly a teaching about God it must remain somewhat theoretical. Finally, the field of historical theology is undertaking a fresh examination of the basic primary texts of trinitarian theology.     

Learning (not) to talk about race: when older children underperform in social categorization

The present research identifies an anomaly in sociocognitive development, whereby younger children (8 and 9 years) outperform their older counterparts (10 and 11 years) in a basic categorization task in which the acknowledgment of racial difference facilitates performance. Though older children exhibit superior performance on a race-neutral version of the task, their tendency to avoid acknowledging race hinders objective success when race is a relevant category. That these findings emerge in late childhood, in a pattern counter to the normal developmental trajectory of increased cognitive expertise in categorization, suggests that this anomaly indicates the onset of a critical transition in human social development.     

Are Faculty Strikes Unethical?

It has been argued that strikes are morally objectionable in the university context. They injure third parties – the students – and for this reason ought to be rejected. More generally, the strike weapon has led to a reduction of the power of Boards of Governors to adjust universities to changing times. And furthermore, the use of the strike weapon and the ensuing conflicts can injure the collegial form of governance that is essential to higher education. It is here argued that these arguments are hardly conclusive, and that there are virtues to having the strike as a means to resolve disputes. But keeping things on track requires both parties to adhere to the moral and social virtue of civility.     

Meta-analyses of Big Six Interests and Big Five Personality Factors

This article presents a series of meta-analyses examining the 24 samples to date that have revealed the overlap of the three most widely used measures of Holland's Big Six domains of vocational interest, namely the Self-Directed Search (Holland, 1985a), the Strong Interest Inventory (Hansen & Campbell, 1985; Harmon, Hansen, Borgen, & Hammer, 1994), and the Vocational Preference Inventory (Holland, 1985b), with the most widely accepted measure of the Big Five personality factors, namely the Revised NEO Personality Inventory (Costa & McCrae, 1992). The meta-analyses showed the mean effect sizes for each of the 30 correlations between the six interest dimensions and the five personality dimensions. Of the 30 correlations, 5 appeared to be substantial for both women and men and across the interest measures. They are Artistic-Openness (r=.48), Enterprising-Extraversion (r=.41), Social-Extraversion (r=.31), Investigative-Openness (r=.28), and Social-Agreeableness (r=.19).