Extending the temporal range of psychometric prediction by optimal linear filtering of mental test scores

Incorporating temporal decline in predictive validity into mental testing theory is outlined. Starting from multivariate regression of criterion on repeated measurements, an analytic extension results in a weighting function for repeated measurements, replacing the beta weights. Besides optimizing, the procedure permits an evaluation of any particular prognosis setting: In cases of exponentially declining predictive validity, prognostic range can be extended if concurrent validity is nonperfect by optimal weighting (predictive filtering) of repeated measurements. Considerable gain in prognostic range over the traditional approach can be achieved if predictive validity declines concavely downwards.This work was supported by grant Dr 58/3 from Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft.     

Acquisition of phobias and anxiety response patterns in clinical patients

The ways in which phobic patients (N = 106; animal-, social- and claustrophobics) acquired their phobias were investigated in the present study. The results showed that a large majority (58%) of the patients attributed their phobias to conditioning experiences, while 17% recalled vicarious experiences, 10% instructions/information and 15% could not recall any specific onset circumstances. There was no clearcut relationship between the ways of acquisition and anxiety components (subjective, behavioral, physiological), nor did the conditioning and indirectly acquired phobias differ in severity. However, some interesting trends emerged in the data, showing that animal phobics who recalled conditioning experiences to a larger extent also responded physiologically. For patients with indirect onset experiences (for all three types of phobias) the reverse was true, i.e. they responded to a larger extent in a cognitive-subjective way, rather than with increased physiological arousal.     

The development of the multidimensional locus of pain control questionnaire (MLPC): Factor structure,reliability, and validity

This study was conducted to develop a comprehensive Multidimensional Locus of Pain Control questionnaire (MLPC) and to examine how locus of pain control is related to pain appraisals, pain coping strategies, and adjustment to chronic pain. Subjects were 170 chronic headache patients. By means of factor analysis, four subscales were derived: an Internal, a Chance, a Physician, and a Medication locus of pain control orientation scale. The reliability and validity of the subscales appeared to be satisfactory. The results of the present study indicate that the locus of pain control orientation is significantly related to pain appraisals such as perceived pain control and catastrophizing and, to a lesser degree, to coping strategies as measured by the Coping Strategies Questionnaire (CSQ). However, almost no relationship was observed between locus of pain control and adjustment to pain. Further research with the MLPC in different chronic pain populations is warranted in order to investigate whether the results found in this study can be generalized to chronic pain patients in general.     

Motion structure in five-dot patterns as a determinant of perceptual grouping

The effect of basic motion structures on perceptual grouping was studied with five-dot motion patterns. Four basic motion structures were identified in terms of proximal common and relative motion vectors. In a forced-choice situation, the observers had to decide to which of two pairs of dots a fifth critical dot seemed to belong. Thus, one of two possible three-dot units was chosen by the observers. The two possible three-dot units defined different motion structures, and the chosen motion structure was considered to have stronger grouping power than the alternative structure had. It was found that parallel common motions (perceived translation in the plane) had the strongest grouping power; these were followed by circular common motions (perceived rotation in the plane), concurrent relative motions (perceived translation in depth), and, finally, parallel relative motions (perceived rotation in depth). The results also suggested effects of proximity and orientation of axis of rotation. It is further argued that the relative grouping power of the motion structures could not solely be interpreted in terms of changes of directions and distances between the dots. Instead it is suggested that vector analysis is a fundamental perceptual activity and that basic motion structures determine grouping power.     

The normal distribution in scaling subjective stimulus differences: Less “normal” than we think?

The Gaussian, or “normal,” distribution is routinely used to model distributions of subjective quantities. This practice rests on a trust in the central limit theorem, yet this theorem does not cover the case of a mixture of Gaussian distributions with different standard deviations, which yields a distribution that is heavier tailed than the Gaussian. In psychophysical judgment experiments, this may result, for example, from fluctuating or interindividually varying attention. Two candidates for describing this commonly encountered type of distribution are the logistic distribution and thet distribution with a small number of degrees of freedom. In reanalyses of experimental data on three-category loudness comparisons, as well as in a Monte Carlo simulation,t(4) was found to model the underlying mixed inter- and intraindividual-distribution of subjective loudness differences quite satisfactorily.     

Realism of confidence in sensory discrimination: The underconfidence phenomenon

This paper documents a very pervasive underconfidence bias in the area of sensory discrimination. In order to account for this phenomenon, a subjective distance theory of confidence in sensory discrimination is proposed. This theory, based on the law of comparative judgment and the assumption of confidence as an increasing function of the perceived distance between stimuli, predicts underconfidence—that is, that people should perform better than they express in their confidence assessments. Due to the fixed sensitivity of the sensory system, this underconfidence bias is practically impossible to avoid. The results of Experiment 1 confirmed the prediction of underconfidence with the help of present-day calibration methods and indkated-a-good quantitative fit of the theory. The results of Experiment 2 showed that prolonged experience of outcome feedback (160 trials) had no effect on underconfidence. It is concluded that the subjective distance theory provides a better explanation of the underconfidence phenomenon than-do previous accounts in terms of subconscious processes.     

Neurodynamic system theory: Scope and limits

This paper proposes that neurodynamic system theory may be used to connect structural and functional aspects of neural organization. The paper claims that generalized causal dynamic models are proper tools for describing the self-organizing mechanism of the nervous system. In particular, it is pointed out that ontogeny, development, normal performance, learning, and plasticity, can be treated by coherent concepts and formalism. Taking into account the self-referential character of the brain, autopoiesis, endophysics and hermeneutics are offered as elements of a poststructuralist brain (-mind-computer) theory.     

Aids,myth, and ethics

The present paper is a commentary on an article by Larry Churchill [1]. Churchill has argued that the negative attitudes and adverse behavior we commonly encounter in connection with (suspected) AIDS patients may be understood in terms of a dualistic myth inspiring a ritual avoidance of dirt, of dirt as something that does not belong to a clean world order. The deep-seated mythical character of attitudes and behavior here makes them less accessible to the kind of rational argument commonly employed in ethics. Churchill also proposes a remedy for the (morally outrageous) dualistic mythical-ritual behavior he has focused — a remedy that may be overly intellectualistic.Three further comments are made: on the metaphorical meaning of myth, on a reductionist tendency in Churchill's deep-looking project, and on an ethically crucial ambiguity in the meaning of the other person's otherness. These (mildly critical) comments do not, however, detract from a positive overall evaluation of Churchill's basic idea that we will understand more about adverse attitudes and behavior in connection with AIDS if we think in terms of myth, ritual, dirt, and cleanliness.     

Against liberty

Conclusion There are no private particular actions that should be altogether free of social interference. No absolute distinction can be made between types of actions affecting others and those affecting only the agent. Relative to a purpose in formulating an act of law, for instance, such a distinction can, however, be made. The idea of social freedom could therefore be thought to imply that even if there are no absolutely private particular actions, and even if society could interfere for any purpose to regulate the actions of the individual, not any reason for such interference is acceptable from the point of view of liberty. Acts of law should not be made unnecessarily inclusive with respect to their purpose and they should be designed to further public security. Not even in this weak formulation, however, can the principle of social liberty be defended against moral criticism. Some illiberal laws, in this sense, should after all be passed. Examples can be found in taxation law.The only reasonable conclusion to draw from all this is that there is no tenable principle of liberty.That there is no tenable principle of liberty does not mean that everything that has been condemned in the name of liberty should now be regarded as right. Many things said to result in a limitation of freedom could be wrong for other reasons. But probably not all of them are. So it will, I think, have some effects on our political views in general, if we accept the conclusion of this essay.     

Should I invite them? Bystanders' inclusivity judgements towards outgroup victims and ingroup bullies in intergroup bullying

This study examined bystanders' judgements of bullying and their inclusivity towards refugee victims and ingroup bully peers. Participants included 587 Turkish adolescents (M_age = 13.14, SD = 1.60) who were presented with two stories: intergroup (Syrian refugee victim) and intragroup (Turkish victim) bullying. They indicated acceptability of bullying, retaliation, and how likely they would be to include victims and bullies in different social contexts. Empathy, prejudice, desired social distance, and peer norms towards Syrian refugees were examined as predictors. Adolescents in schools with a higher number of Syrian peers were more likely to expect they would include the Syrian victim than adolescents in schools with a lower number of Syrian peers. Further, adolescents with higher empathy were more likely to include the Syrian victim while adolescents with higher prejudice and desired social distance were less likely to include the Syrian victim. The results highlight the importance of attending to bystanders' future interactions with victims and bullies, as bystanders have the opportunity to challenge injustice by promoting inclusive school climates in diverse societies. Please refer to the Supplementary Material section to find this article's Community and Social Impact Statement .