Empirical Priors in Polytomous Computerized Adaptive Tests: Risks and Rewards in Clinical Settings

The use of empirical prior information about participants has been shown to substantially improve the efficiency of computerized adaptive tests (CATs) in educational settings. However, it is unclear how these results translate to clinical settings, where small item banks with highly informative polytomous items often lead to very short CATs. We explored the risks and rewards of using prior information in CAT in two simulation studies, rooted in applied clinical examples. In the first simulation, prior precision and bias in the prior location were manipulated independently. Our results show that a precise personalized prior can meaningfully increase CAT efficiency. However, this reward comes with the potential risk of overconfidence in wrong empirical information (i.e., using a precise severely biased prior), which can lead to unnecessarily long tests, or severely biased estimates. The latter risk can be mitigated by setting a minimum number of items that are to be administered during the CAT, or by setting a less precise prior; be it at the expense of canceling out any efficiency gains. The second simulation, with more realistic bias and precision combinations in the empirical prior, places the prevalence of the potential risks in context. With similar estimation bias, an empirical prior reduced CAT test length, compared to a standard normal prior, in 68% of cases, by a median of 20%; while test length increased in only 3% of cases. The use of prior information in CAT seems to be a feasible and simple method to reduce test burden for patients and clinical practitioners alike.     

Modeling Interactions Between Latent Variables in Research on Type D Personality: A Monte Carlo Simulation and Clinical Study of Depression and Anxiety

Several approaches exist to model interactions between latent variables. However, it is unclear how these perform when item scores are skewed and ordinal. Research on Type D personality serves as a good case study for that matter. In Study 1, we fitted a multivariate interaction model to predict depression and anxiety with Type D personality, operationalized as an interaction between its two subcomponents negative affectivity (NA) and social inhibition (SI). We constructed this interaction according to four approaches: (1) sum score product; (2) single product indicator; (3) matched product indicators; and (4) latent moderated structural equations (LMS). In Study 2, we compared these interaction models in a simulation study by assessing for each method the bias and precision of the estimated interaction effect under varying conditions. In Study 1, all methods showed a significant Type D effect on both depression and anxiety, although this effect diminished after including the NA and SI quadratic effects. Study 2 showed that the LMS approach performed best with respect to minimizing bias and maximizing power, even when item scores were ordinal and skewed. However, when latent traits were skewed LMS resulted in more false-positive conclusions, while the Matched PI approach adequately controlled the false-positive rate.     

The impact of information about the prevalence of AIDS-Preventive behavior among men and women: The mediating role of social norms

Abstract

The present study was designed to examine the effect of information about the high prevalence of safe sex on condom use intention, and to investigate the possible mediating role of the perceived social norm of friends, and the perceived social norm of future. sexual partners. Participants were provided with gender specific prevalence information, that is with the information that most men have exclusively safe sex, or with the information that most women exclusively engage in safe sexual behavior. The results show some gender differences. Information about the high prevalence of safe sex among men tends to increase women's condom use intention, and this effect seems to be mediated by the paceived social norm of future sexual partners. Men's intention, on the other hand, seems to be unaffected by high prevalence information of safe sex. Implications for research and prevention are discussed     

Bringing up condom use and using condoms with new sexual partners: Intentional or habitual?

Abstract

A prospective study of 94 Dutch adults who have casual sexual partners examined whether two important aspects of safe sex, namely bringing up condom use (BCU) and actual condom use (ACU) are intentional or habitual. For each of these aspects, a model based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB: Ajzen, 1991) was pitted against a similar model that was extended with a path from past to later BCU and ACU, respectively. The results suggest that bringing up the issue of condom use was equally predicted by intentions and past BCU. However, among people with casual partners, using condoms - and more importantly not using condoms - was especially predicted by past ACU, suggesting a strong habitual component. These results are discussed in terms of their implications for safe sex education and the use of theories in safe sex promotion campaigns.     

The Development of the Pragma-dialectical Approach to Argumentation

This paper describes the development of pragma-dialectics as a theory of argumentative discourse. First the development of the pragma-dialectical model of a critical discussion is explained, with the rules that are to be complied with in order to avoid fallacies from occurring. Then the integration is discussed of rhetorical insight in the dialectical framework. In this endeavour, the concept of strategic manoeuvring is explained that allows for a more refined and more profoundly justified analysis of argumentative discourse and a better identification of fallacies. The paper ends with a brief overview of current research projects.     

Who is in Need of Victim Support?: The Issue of Accountable, Empirically Validated Selection and Victim Referral

The tremendous growth in victim-oriented laws granting various rights to crime victims, which emerged worldwide during the last two decades, has initiated a renewed research interest in the varied aspects of the needy victims concept. Highly sophisticated theoretical models, indicating various risk factors (e.g. external control, upward relative risk assessments) and protection factors (hardiness, behaviour attributions), were developed to explain which crime victims are in need of victim support. The practical validity of these models is relatively low: at the police level there are simply no resources to conduct lengthy diagnostic interviews with crime victims. This article aims to bridge the gap between sophistication and mundane selection of needy victims. The focus is on a simple selection instrument, namely the victim's psychological condition prior to the victimization. Analyses suggest that low pre-victimization well-being constitutes a central risk factor, predicting a delayed deterioration in post-victimization well-being, and longer term psychological distress, which is manifest ten months after the victimizing incident. The traffic light model is discussed as a simple selection tool, which might be used during the witness interview. Such a model may also be used by defense attorneys to examine if clients were appropriately assessed as needing support after describing their experiences to the police. For the prosecutor's office the traffic light model offers an instrument to predict which victims might benefit from a personal interview with the prosecutor. Some implications of low well-being for studies on repeat victimizations are discussed, inter alia in terms of a potential mood congruence bias, that might result in inflated estimates of multiple victimizations.