Psychological plausibility of the theory of probabilistic mental models and the fast and frugal heuristics

The theory of probabilistic mental models (PMM; G. Gigerenzer, U. Hoffrage, & H. Kleinb?lting, 1991) has had a major influence on the field of judgment and decision making, with the most recent important modifications to PMM theory being the identification of several fast and frugal heuristics (G. Gigerenzer & D. G. Goldstein, 1996). These heuristics were purported to provide psychologically plausible cognitive process models that describe a variety of judgment behavior. In this article, the authors evaluate the psychological plausibility of the assumptions upon which PMM were built and, consequently, the psychological plausibility of several of the fast and frugal heuristics. The authors argue that many of PMM theory's assumptions are questionable, given available data, and that fast and frugal heuristics are, in fact, psychologically implausible.     

Mental Disorders,Comorbidity, and Pre‐enlistment Suicidal Behavior Among New Soldiers in the U.S. Army: Results from the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS)

We examined the associations between mental disorders and suicidal behavior (ideation, plans, and attempts) among new soldiers using data from the New Soldier Study (NSS) component of the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS; N = 38,507). Most new soldiers with a pre‐enlistment history of suicide attempt reported a prior mental disorder (59.0%). Each disorder examined was associated with increased odds of suicidal behavior (ORs = 2.6–8.6). Only PTSD and disorders characterized by irritability and impulsive/aggressive behavior (i.e., bipolar disorder, conduct disorder, oppositional defiant disorder, and attention‐deficit/hyperactivity disorder) predicted unplanned attempts among ideators. Mental disorders are important predictors of pre‐enlistment suicidal behavior among new soldiers and should figure prominently in suicide screening and prevention efforts.