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Statistical inference (including interval estimation and model selection) is increasingly used in the analysis of behavioral data. As with many other fields, statistical approaches for these analyses traditionally use classical (i.e., frequentist) methods. Interpreting classical intervals and p‐values correctly can be burdensome and counterintuitive. By contrast, Bayesian methods treat data, parameters, and hypotheses as random quantities and use rules of conditional probability to produce direct probabilistic statements about models and parameters given observed study data. In this work, we reanalyze two data sets using Bayesian procedures. We precede the analyses with an overview of the Bayesian paradigm. The first study reanalyzes data from a recent study of controls, heavy smokers, and individuals with alcohol and/or cocaine substance use disorder, and focuses on Bayesian hypothesis testing for covariates and interval estimation for discounting rates among various substance use disorder profiles. The second example analyzes hypothetical environmental delay‐discounting data. This example focuses on using historical data to establish prior distributions for parameters while allowing subjective expert opinion to govern the prior distribution on model preference. We review the subjective nature of specifying Bayesian prior distributions but also review established methods to standardize the generation of priors and remove subjective influence while still taking advantage of the interpretive advantages of Bayesian analyses. We present the Bayesian approach as an alternative paradigm for statistical inference and discuss its strengths and weaknesses.  相似文献   
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Two experiments investigate whether native speakers of French can use a noun’s phonological ending to retrieve its gender and that of a gender-marked element. In Experiment 1, participants performed a gender decision task on the noun’s gender-marked determiner for auditorily presented nouns. Noun endings with high predictive values were selected. The noun stimuli could either belong to the gender class predicted by their ending (congruent) or they could belong to the gender class that was different from the predicted gender (incongruent). Gender decisions were made significantly faster for congruent nouns than for incongruent nouns, relative to a (lexical decision) baseline task. In Experiment 2, participants named pictures of the same materials as used in Experiment 1 with noun phrases consisting of a gender-marked determiner, a gender-marked adjective and a noun. In this Experiment, no effect of congruency, relative to a (bare noun naming) baseline task, was observed. Thus, the results show an effect of phonological information on the retrieval of gender-marked elements in spoken word recognition, but not in word production.  相似文献   
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Previous studies have built up evidence that an unstable self-esteem is associated with vulnerability to depression and that it outperforms level of self-esteem as a predictor for symptoms of depression. However, most of these studies have used student samples exclusively to investigate the role of self-esteem instability in depression vulnerability. Our present study used samples of currently depressed inpatients, formerly depressed individuals, and never-depressed controls to investigate the relationship between self-esteem instability and depression. In addition, we examined the predictive validity of self-esteem instability in predicting future depressive symptoms. The results indicate that self-esteem instability is associated with depression and vulnerability to depression. Furthermore, self-esteem instability interacted with perceived stress variability and depressed mood variability in predicting future depressive symptomatology at six months follow-up. These results are in line with the diathesis-stress model and support the hypothesis that self-esteem instability might be more important than level of self-esteem in predicting vulnerability to depression.  相似文献   
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Event-related potentials (ERPs) were recorded while subjects performed a validated mental rotation task, taken from the cognitive psychology literature. These ERPs show a late posterior negativity relative to a baseline condition requiring all of the same perceptual and cognitive processes except for the mental rotation itself. Our tentative identification of this posterior negativity with mental rotation is further supported by the finding that it varies systematically with the amount of mental rotation required on a trial by trial basis in the experimental task. We conclude that this late negativity is an ERP marker of the mental rotation process, and that this process engages primarily posterior brain regions.  相似文献   
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