Googling in Fear: Measuring Moral Panic Using Internet Searches Before and After Obama’s 2008 Election

ABSTRACT

The rhetoric, rumor, and hostility that surrounded the election of Barack Obama in 2008 appeared to correspond with the notion of a “moral panic.” However, systematically measuring phenomena like moral panics, which are volatile and dispersed in nature, can be difficult. This paper utilizes Google search data combined with other sources to examine the reaction to the candidacy and initial election of Obama. Given the nature of this particular panic, we hypothesize that panic-induced searches will be greater in states with a larger presence of Evangelical Protestants and consumption of conservative media outlets. Results from a series of generalized least squares time-series and two-stage regression models demonstrate that searches related to “socialism” and the “Antichrist” grew significantly around Obama’s election, indicating Obama’s “folk devil” status and a growing moral panic. Additionally, the intensity of the panic appears to be moderated by religious cultures and media consumption. Implications for theory and future research are discussed.     

Safety Engineering for Artificial General Intelligence

Machine ethics and robot rights are quickly becoming hot topics in artificial intelligence and robotics communities. We will argue that attempts to attribute moral agency and assign rights to all intelligent machines are misguided, whether applied to infrahuman or superhuman AIs, as are proposals to limit the negative effects of AIs by constraining their behavior. As an alternative, we propose a new science of safety engineering for intelligent artificial agents based on maximizing for what humans value. In particular, we challenge the scientific community to develop intelligent systems that have human-friendly values that they provably retain, even under recursive self-improvement.     

Social problem solving in early childhood: Developmental change and the influence of shyness

The purpose of this study was to examine developmental change and the influence of shyness on social problem-solving (SPS). At 24, 36, and 48 months, children (N = 570) were observed while interacting with an unfamiliar peer during an SPS task and at 24 months, maternal report of shyness was collected. Results showed that across the full sample, children displayed low but stable levels of withdrawn SPS and increasing levels of SPS competence over development. In addition, results showed multiple trajectories of withdrawn and competent SPS. Shyness was associated with high-increasing and high-decreasing withdrawn SPS trajectories compared with the low-increasing withdrawn SPS trajectory. Shyness was also associated with the low-increasing compared with the high-increasing SPS competence trajectory. Findings demonstrate the development of SPS competence over early childhood, and the influence of early shyness on this developmental course, with some shy children showing improvement in SPS skills and others continuing to show SPS difficulties over time.     

Cautionary Remarks on the Use of Clusterwise Regression

Clusterwise linear regression is a multivariate statistical procedure that attempts to cluster objects with the objective of minimizing the sum of the error sums of squares for the within-cluster regression models. In this article, we show that the minimization of this criterion makes no effort to distinguish the error explained by the within-cluster regression models from the error explained by the clustering process. In some cases, most of the variation in the response variable is explained by clustering the objects, with little additional benefit provided by the within-cluster regression models. Accordingly, there is tremendous potential for overfitting with clusterwise regression, which is demonstrated with numerical examples and simulation experiments. To guard against the misuse of clusterwise regression, we recommend a benchmarking procedure that compares the results for the observed empirical data with those obtained across a set of random permutations of the response measures. We also demonstrate the potential for overfitting via an empirical application related to the prediction of reflective judgment using high school and college performance measures.     

Satisfaction and Stressors in a Religious Minority: A National Study of Orthodox Jewish Marriage

The paucity of mental health studies with Orthodox Jews makes culturally competent counseling care unlikely. In this large‐scale investigation of marriage among Orthodox Jews, most respondents reported satisfaction with marriage and spouse, although satisfaction was highest among recently married couples. The most significant stressors were finances, communication, physical intimacy/sexuality, time pressures, and in‐law conflicts. Counseling interventions are discussed. La escasez de estudios sobre salud mental en poblaciones de judíos ortodoxos limita la posibilidad de ofrecer un cuidado de consejería culturalmente competente. En esta investigación a gran escala sobre el matrimonio entre judíos ortodoxos, la mayoría de los participantes indicaron satisfacción con su matrimonio y esposo/a, aunque la satisfacción fue mayor entre las parejas recién casadas. Los elementos estresantes más significativos fueron las finanzas, la comunicación, el contacto íntimo/sexualidad, la falta de tiempo, y los conflictos con la familia política. Se discuten intervenciones para la consejería.     

How to Gain Eleven IQ Points in Ten Minutes: Thinking Aloud Improves Raven's Matrices Performance in Older Adults

ABSTRACT

Few studies have examined the impact of age on reactivity to concurrent think-aloud (TA) verbal reports. An initial study with 30 younger and 31 older adults revealed that thinking aloud improves older adult performance on a short form of the Raven's Matrices (Bors & Stokes, 1998 Bors, D. A. and Stokes, T. L. 1998. Raven's Advanced Progressive Matrices: Norms for first-year university students and the development of a short form. Educational and Psychological Measurement, 58: 382–398. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], Educational and Psychological Measurement, 58, p. 382) but did not affect other tasks. In the replication experiment, 30 older adults (mean age = 73.0) performed the Raven's Matrices and three other tasks to replicate and extend the findings of the initial study. Once again older adults performed significantly better only on the Raven's Matrices while thinking aloud. Performance gains on this task were substantial (d = 0.73 and 0.92 in Experiments 1 and 2, respectively), corresponding to a fluid intelligence increase of nearly one standard deviation.     

One Family at a Time: A Prevention Program for At‐Risk Parents

The purpose of this study was to examine the effectiveness of a psychoeducational parenting program with at‐risk parents of young children. At‐risk was defined as excessive parental use of verbal and corporal punishment combined with low‐income status. All families were seen for 10 weeks, either individually or in very small groups. Results showed that compared with the control group, parents participating in the program significantly decreased their levels of verbal and corporal punishment, anger, stress, and reported child behavior problems; results were maintained at follow‐up. Implications for counselors are provided.     

The face of fear: Effects of eye gaze and emotion on visual attention

We investigated whether a fearful expression enhances the effect of another's gaze in directing the attention of an observer. Participants viewed photographs of faces whose gaze was directed ahead, to the left or to the right. Target letters then appeared unpredictably to the left or right. As expected, targets in the location indicated by gaze were detected more rapidly. In nonanxious volunteers the effects of fearful gaze did not differ from neutral gaze, but fearful expression had a more powerful influence in a selected high anxious group. Attention is thus more likely to be guided by the direction of fearful than neutral gaze, but only in anxiety-prone individuals.     

Probability, logic and the cognitive foundations of rational belief

Since Pascal introduced the idea of mathematical probability in the 17th century discussions of uncertainty and “rational” belief have been dogged by philosophical and technical disputes. Furthermore, the last quarter century has seen an explosion of new questions and ideas, stimulated by developments in the computer and cognitive sciences. Competing ideas about probability are often driven by different intuitions about the nature of belief that arise from the needs of different domains (e.g., economics, management theory, engineering, medicine, the life sciences etc). Taking medicine as our focus we develop three lines of argument (historical, practical and cognitive) that suggest that traditional views of probability cannot accommodate all the competing demands and diverse constraints that arise in complex real-world domains. A model of uncertain reasoning based on a form of logical argumentation appears to unify many diverse ideas. The model has precursors in informal discussions of argumentation due to Toulmin, and the notion of logical probability advocated by Keynes, but recent developments in artificial intelligence and cognitive science suggest ways of resolving epistemological and technical issues that they could not address.