Conditional Probabilities, Potential Surprise, and the Conjunction Fallacy

Tversky and Kahneman (1983) found that a relationship of positive conditional dependence between the components of a conjunction of two events increases the prevalence of the conjunction fallacy. Consistent with this finding, the results of two experiments reveal that dependence leads to higher estimates for the conjunctive probability and a higher incidence of the fallacy. However, contrary to the theoretical account proposed by Tversky and Kahneman, the actual magnitude of the conditional relationship does not directly affect the extent of the fallacy; all that is necessary is for a positive conditional relationship to exist. The pattern of results obtained can be accounted for in terms of Shackle's (1969) 'potential surprise' theory of subjective probability. Surprise theory predicts that the impact of the conditional event will be at its maximum where the relationship is a negative one. Tversky and Kahneman's model, on the other hand, predicts the maximum effect when the relationship is positive. In all 12 scenarios tested, multiple regression analysis revealed that the standardized beta weight associated with the conditional event was greater when the relationship was a negative one. Thus the outcome was supportive of the surprise model rather than Tversky and Kahneman's account.     

A methodological assessment and evaluation of dual-task paradigms

This article outlines three major assumptions often implicitly made in dual-task experiments conducted to assess attentional capacity requirements of memorial processes. These assumptions are shown to be incorrect. Three criteria which should be met in dual-task experiments that draw inferences from secondary task decrements are proposed: (1) there should be resource trade-off with the secondary task sensitive to the resource demands of the primary task; (2) there should be equivalence of single and dual primary task performance; and (3) the secondary task must remain resource sensitive throughout the experiment. An experiment was carried out in which the primary and secondary tasks were designed according to these criteria. The results demonstrate that when the criteria are met then secondary task performance can be predictive of primary task difficulty: however, the experiment also highlights the fact that a simple assessment of capacity will not predict total task performance.     

The state and the market in Rawls

Studies in East European Thought - This essay attempts to interpret John Rawls's concept of the state in hisTheory of Justice. His concept is not an analysis of the existing monopoly capitalist...     

Memory as a function of attention, level of processing, and automatization

The relationships between long-term memory (LTM) modification, attentional allocation, and type of processing are examined. Automatic/controlled processing theory (Schneider & Shiffrin, 1977) predicts that the nature and amount of controlled processing determines LTM storage and that stimuli can be automatically processed with no lasting LTM effect. Subjects performed the following: (a) an intentional learning, (b) a semantic categorization, (c) a graphic categorization, (d) a distracting digit-search while intentionally learning words, and (e) a distracting digit-search while ignoring words. Frequency judgments were more accurate in the semantic and intentional conditions than the graphic condition. Frequency judgments in the digit-search conditions were near chance. Experiment 2 extensively trained subjects to develop automatic categorization. Automatic categorization produced no frequency learning and little recognition. These results also disconfirm the Hasher and Zacks (1979) "automatic encoding" proposal regarding the nature of processing.     

The influence of age on consistent and varied semantic-category search performance

Three experiments examined age-related consistent mapping (CM) and varied mapping (VM) practice effects. In separate experiments, young (age, 19-22), middle-aged (37-50), and older (64-88) adults' performance was examined using semantic-category and letter-based search paradigms. After extensive practice, major age differences occurred in CM search. Young and middle-aged subjects showed near-zero comparison slopes, large reductions in mean reaction times, and substantial reductions in response variability. Although older adults' reaction time decreased with CM practice, the reduction in reaction time, comparison slope, and response variability was small compared with the other groups. In VM search, older subjects were slower than the other age groups, but all groups exhibited similar linear set-size functions, search termination, and comparison-load effects. We concluded that age-associated declines in cognitive performance may be due in large part to the degree with which older adults can acquire or use automatic processes to perform tasks.     

Are age differences in consistent-mapping visual search due to feature learning or attention training?

In this experiment, the ability of young and old adults to differentially modify the attention-attraction strength of targets and distractors relative to feature differentiation was examined. Eight young and 8 old subjects were trained for 8,000 trials in conditions that allowed maximal target-distractor strength differentiation, inhibited target-distractor strength differentiation but facilitated feature differentiation, or inhibited both target-distractor strength differentiation and feature differentiation. Age-related performance was assessed between and within conditions during training and with reversal conditions where the roles of targets and distractors were switched. The pattern of data during training and at reversal supports the proposal that age differences in extended-practice visual search are due to differences in the ability to differentially strengthen targets and distractors.     

Context matters: Explicit and implicit reminders of ingroup privilege increase collective guilt among foreigners in a developing country

We test three ways context matters in the study of intergroup inequality: where participants are approached, who interacts with participants, and how researchers ask participants questions. Regarding how, we replicate a finding that framing intergroup inequality as outgroup disadvantage rather than ingroup privilege reduces collective guilt in a novel context. Regarding where, we go beyond the laboratory to test foreigners in Nepal—a country where inequality is highly salient. Regarding who, we had participants approached by an ingroup (foreign) experimenter or an outgroup (Nepalese) experimenter. We found an outgroup disadvantage framing reduced collective guilt relative to ingroup privilege framing, but only when delivered by an ingroup member. This highlights the importance of taking where, who, and how into account to fully understand the contextual nature of intergroup emotion.     

Paws for Intervention: Perceptions About the Use of Dogs in Schools

Research in the field of animal-assisted therapy has shown that therapy dogs have a positive social-emotional impact on individuals in hospitals, nursing homes, and counseling. Recently, the literature has suggested that therapy dogs can yield positive psychological, social, and academic outcomes in schools, although this research is quite limited. The intent of this study was to examine perceptions on the effectiveness of therapy dogs in schools for promoting students’ psychological well-being, and an overall positive school climate. Preliminary evidence shows faculty and students from four rural school districts across Western New York indicated support for this emerging and viable school intervention. This qualitative and quantitative insight can help guide future research.     

Working memory functioning in developmental dyslexia

Working memory impairments in dyslexia are well documented. However, research has mostly been limited to the phonological domain, a modality in which people with dyslexia have a range of problems. In this paper, 22 adult students with dyslexia and 22 age- and IQ-matched controls were presented with both verbal and visuospatial working memory tasks. Performance was compared on measures of simple span, complex span (requiring both storage and processing), and dynamic memory updating in the two domains. The dyslexic group had significantly lower spans than the controls on all the verbal tasks, both simple and complex, and also on the spatial complex span measure. Impairments remained on the complex span measures after controlling statistically for simple span performance, suggesting a central executive impairment in dyslexia. The novelty of task demands on the initial trials of the spatial updating task also proved more problematic for the dyslexic than control participants. The results are interpreted in terms of extant theories of dyslexia. The possibility of a supervisory attentional system deficit in dyslexia is also raised. It seems clear that working memory difficulties in dyslexia extend into adulthood, can affect performance in both the phonological and visuospatial modalities, and implicate central executive dysfunction, in addition to problems with storage.