Age and probabilistic reasoning: Biases in conjunctive,disjunctive and Bayesian judgements in early and late adulthood

Probabilistic reasoning plays an essential part in many aspects of our daily routine and it has been argued that as we grow older, the need to make judgements under uncertainty becomes increasingly important. Two studies were conducted to establish whether the propensity to commit probabilistic reasoning errors increased with age. Young (aged 16–24), middle aged (25–54), and older persons (55 years and above) were included. Study 1 revealed systematic biases and errors across a range of judgement tasks. However, no evidence of any age effect in Bayesian inference, the incidence of the conjunction fallacy, or in the number of disjunction errors was found. The results obtained in Study 1 were replicated in Study 2, where the potential mediating role of working memory processes and intellectual capacity were explicitly assessed. While some aspects of probabilistic reasoning performance were correlated with measures of intelligence and working memory functioning among young adults, this was much less evident in older persons. The present findings are discussed in relation to the evolution of the dualistic heuristic–analytical system over the adult lifespan. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Syllogistic reasoning and cognitive ageing

Gilinsky and Judd (1994) demonstrated that age-related impairment in syllogistic reasoning was in part due to reduced working-memory capacity. A total of 30 older (average age 66 years) and 34 younger persons (average age 24 years) were tested on syllogisms of various types as well as on other measures. Syllogistic reasoning was significantly correlated with education, processing speed, word span, and word fluency. Correlations with visuo-spatial processing and random letter generation were just short of significance. Syllogistic reasoning performance declined with age, although the deficit was no longer statistically significant following control for age-related differences in information-processing speed. On the other hand the inclusion of word fluency as an additional covariate boosted the apparent age effect, returning it to statistical significance. Thus it is possible that cognitive processes outside of working memory might underpin at least part of the apparent age deficit. This possibility is evaluated in the light of neuropsychological evidence implicating the prefrontal cortex in both the processing of syllogisms and more generally in cognitive ageing.     

How does the extraversion personality trait influence false recall with the Deese–Roediger–McDermott (DRM) paradigm?

Relative to more introverted persons, extraverts have been found to exhibit better recall and recognition in a range of memory paradigms including demonstrating a superior semantic priming effect. The present study sought to establish whether this aspect of personality might be associated with the false memory paradigm developed by Deese, Roediger, and McDermott (the DRM paradigm). Lists containing semantically related words were presented to extraverts, ambiverts, and introverts. Compared to the other two groups, extraverts falsely recalled more critical lures (words that although semantically related were not in the original lists) and non-list words. The results are discussed in relation to the concept of spreading activation.     

A comparison of signal detection theory to the objective threshold/strategic model of unconscious perception

A key problem in unconscious perception research is ruling out the possibility that weak conscious awareness of stimuli might explain the results. In the present study, signal detection theory was compared with the objective threshold/strategic model as explanations of results for detection and identification sensitivity in a commonly used unconscious perception task. In the task, 64 undergraduate participants detected and identified one of four briefly displayed, visually masked letters. Identification was significantly above baseline (i.e., proportion correct > .25) at the highest detection confidence rating. This result is most consistent with signal detection theory's continuum of sensory states and serves as a possible index of conscious perception. However, there was limited support for the other model in the form of a predicted "looker's inhibition" effect, which produced identification performance that was significantly below baseline. One additional result, an interaction between the target stimulus and type of mask, raised concerns for the generality of unconscious perception effects.     

Conditional Probabilities, Potential Surprise, and the Conjunction Fallacy

Tversky and Kahneman (1983) found that a relationship of positive conditional dependence between the components of a conjunction of two events increases the prevalence of the conjunction fallacy. Consistent with this finding, the results of two experiments reveal that dependence leads to higher estimates for the conjunctive probability and a higher incidence of the fallacy. However, contrary to the theoretical account proposed by Tversky and Kahneman, the actual magnitude of the conditional relationship does not directly affect the extent of the fallacy; all that is necessary is for a positive conditional relationship to exist. The pattern of results obtained can be accounted for in terms of Shackle's (1969) 'potential surprise' theory of subjective probability. Surprise theory predicts that the impact of the conditional event will be at its maximum where the relationship is a negative one. Tversky and Kahneman's model, on the other hand, predicts the maximum effect when the relationship is positive. In all 12 scenarios tested, multiple regression analysis revealed that the standardized beta weight associated with the conditional event was greater when the relationship was a negative one. Thus the outcome was supportive of the surprise model rather than Tversky and Kahneman's account.     

The state and the market in Rawls

Studies in East European Thought - This essay attempts to interpret John Rawls's concept of the state in hisTheory of Justice. His concept is not an analysis of the existing monopoly capitalist...     

A methodological assessment and evaluation of dual-task paradigms

This article outlines three major assumptions often implicitly made in dual-task experiments conducted to assess attentional capacity requirements of memorial processes. These assumptions are shown to be incorrect. Three criteria which should be met in dual-task experiments that draw inferences from secondary task decrements are proposed: (1) there should be resource trade-off with the secondary task sensitive to the resource demands of the primary task; (2) there should be equivalence of single and dual primary task performance; and (3) the secondary task must remain resource sensitive throughout the experiment. An experiment was carried out in which the primary and secondary tasks were designed according to these criteria. The results demonstrate that when the criteria are met then secondary task performance can be predictive of primary task difficulty: however, the experiment also highlights the fact that a simple assessment of capacity will not predict total task performance.     

The influence of age on consistent and varied semantic-category search performance

Three experiments examined age-related consistent mapping (CM) and varied mapping (VM) practice effects. In separate experiments, young (age, 19-22), middle-aged (37-50), and older (64-88) adults' performance was examined using semantic-category and letter-based search paradigms. After extensive practice, major age differences occurred in CM search. Young and middle-aged subjects showed near-zero comparison slopes, large reductions in mean reaction times, and substantial reductions in response variability. Although older adults' reaction time decreased with CM practice, the reduction in reaction time, comparison slope, and response variability was small compared with the other groups. In VM search, older subjects were slower than the other age groups, but all groups exhibited similar linear set-size functions, search termination, and comparison-load effects. We concluded that age-associated declines in cognitive performance may be due in large part to the degree with which older adults can acquire or use automatic processes to perform tasks.     

Memory as a function of attention, level of processing, and automatization

The relationships between long-term memory (LTM) modification, attentional allocation, and type of processing are examined. Automatic/controlled processing theory (Schneider & Shiffrin, 1977) predicts that the nature and amount of controlled processing determines LTM storage and that stimuli can be automatically processed with no lasting LTM effect. Subjects performed the following: (a) an intentional learning, (b) a semantic categorization, (c) a graphic categorization, (d) a distracting digit-search while intentionally learning words, and (e) a distracting digit-search while ignoring words. Frequency judgments were more accurate in the semantic and intentional conditions than the graphic condition. Frequency judgments in the digit-search conditions were near chance. Experiment 2 extensively trained subjects to develop automatic categorization. Automatic categorization produced no frequency learning and little recognition. These results also disconfirm the Hasher and Zacks (1979) "automatic encoding" proposal regarding the nature of processing.