The hot hand fallacy and the gambler’s fallacy: Two faces of subjective randomness?

The representativeness heuristic has been invoked to explain two opposing expectations--that random sequences will exhibit positive recency (the hot hand fallacy) and that they will exhibit negative recency (the gambler's fallacy). We propose alternative accounts for these two expectations: (1) The hot hand fallacy arises from the experience of characteristic positive recency in serial fluctuations in human performance. (2) The gambler's fallacy results from the experience of characteristic negative recency in sequences of natural events, akin to sampling without replacement. Experiment 1 demonstrates negative recency in subjects' expectations for random binary outcomes from a roulette game, simultaneously with positive recency in expectations for another statistically identical sequence-the successes and failures of their predictions for the random outcomes. These findings fit our proposal but are problematic for the representativeness account. Experiment 2 demonstrates that sequence recency influences attributions that human performance or chance generated the sequence.     

Bilingualism, aging, and cognitive control: evidence from the Simon task

Previous work has shown that bilingualism is associated with more effective controlled processing in children; the assumption is that the constant management of 2 competing languages enhances executive functions (E. Bialystok, 2001). The present research attempted to determine whether this bilingual advantage persists for adults and whether bilingualism attenuates the negative effects of aging on cognitive control in older adults. Three studies are reported that compared the performance of monolingual and bilingual middle-aged and older adults on the Simon task. Bilingualism was associated with smaller Simon effect costs for both age groups; bilingual participants also responded more rapidly to conditions that placed greater demands on working memory. In all cases the bilingual advantage was greater for older participants. It appears, therefore, that controlled processing is carried out more effectively by bilinguals and that bilingualism helps to offset age-related losses in certain executive processes.     

Enhancing accuracy in observational test scoring: the comprehensive system as a case example

Inaccuracies in administration and scoring can potentially compromise the validity of any standardized psychosocial measure. The threat is particularly pertinent to methods involving behavioral observation, a category that includes many intelligence tests, neuropsychological measures, personality assessment instruments, and diagnostic procedures. Despite evidence and conjecture that errors in testing procedure are common for at least some of these measures and that these errors are often severe enough to influence interpretation, the topic has received relatively little attention. In particular, the absence of any safeguard against inaccurate test use in clinical situations can put the respondent at risk and violates ethical standards for the use of tests. In this article, I review some issues surrounding accuracy in testing procedures, including a discussion of what is known about the problem, an evaluation of several approaches to improving testing practices, and a review of recommendations for the statistical evaluation of rater accuracy. In this article, I use the Rorschach Comprehensive System (Exner, 1993) to demonstrate the concepts discussed.     

A comparison of the PAI and MMPI-2 as predictors of faking bad in college students

Both the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory-2 (MMPI-2; Butcher et al., 2001) and Personality Assessment Inventory (PAI; Morey, 1991) offer a large set of scales devoted to the identification of response styles. This study directly compared the effectiveness of the 2 inventories as indicators of overreporting. The 2 measures were administered to 52 college students instructed to fake bad under conditions describing either a forensic (n = 24) or psychiatric (n = 28) setting as well as to 432 psychiatric patients. Results indicated that the MMPI-2 F - K index and Fp Scale were the best single indicators of a faking bad response style and that the MMPI-2 scales were the better indicators as a set. However, the PAI scales demonstrated a significant level of incremental validity over the MMPI-2 indicators in every analysis conducted. The findings suggest that either inventory offers an effective approach to the detection of overreporting, and administering both inventories can enhance the accuracy of prediction further.     

Cognition through the lifespan: mechanisms of change

Cognitive abilities rise steeply from infancy to young adulthood and then are either maintained or decline to old age, depending on the specific ability. This pattern suggests corresponding continuities of mechanism and process, but it is striking that the fields of cognitive development and cognitive aging make little contact with each other's methods and theories. In this review we examine reasons for this cultural separation, and show how recent findings from both areas fit a framework couched in terms of cognitive representation and control. These two broad factors have very different lifespan trajectories; consideration of their relative growth and decline makes it clear that cognitive aging is not simply 'development in reverse'. This framework is offered in light of recent interest in finding greater continuity throughout the lifespan and creating a more comprehensive explanation of cognitive function and cognitive change.     

The effects of aging on selectivity and control in short-term recall

The ability to control encoding and retrieval processing strategically is critical for the efficient use of memory. We examined the ability of younger and older adults to selectively remember words on the basis of their arbitrary point values by using a technique developed by Watkins and Bloom (1999). In the first three experiments, younger subjects recalled more words than did older subjects, but an independent index of recall selectivity showed that older subjects were apparently more successful in selecting higher valued words. However, a fourth experiment showed that this superior selectivity on the part of older adults was attributable to their greater proportional reliance on primary memory recall. Overall, the data suggest that although older adults recall fewer words than do younger adults, they exert as much control over some aspects of encoding.     

Cuing interacts with perceptual load in visual search

We tested the strong form of the perceptual-load hypothesis, which posits that the amount of perceptual load is the only factor determining whether attention can be effectively focused. Participants performed a visual search task under conditions of low and high load and with either a 100% valid spatial cue or no spatial cue. With no cue, participants showed evidence of processing to-be-ignored stimuli when perceptual load was low but not when it was high, consistent with the perceptual-load hypothesis. However, with a 100% valid spatial cue, participants showed little evidence of processing to-be-ignored stimuli, even when perceptual load was low. These results suggest that although perceptual load may be an important factor in attentional selectivity, load alone is not sufficient to explain how and when selective attention is effective.     

Incremental validity of selected MMPI-A content scales in an inpatient setting

To date, relatively few studies have been published evaluating the validity or incremental validity of the content scales from the adolescent version of the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI-A; J. N. Butcher et al., 1992). A sample of 629 psychiatric inpatient adolescents who had completed the MMPI-A was used to evaluate the ability of selected clinical and content scales to predict conceptually related clinical variables. Criteria were based on clinician ratings, admission and discharge diagnoses, and chart reviews. Results from hierarchical multiple and logistic regression analyses indicated the content scales offered incremental validity over the clinical scales and supported the use of the content scales as an adjunct to the traditional clinical scales.     

Correlates of the MMPI–A Psychopathology Five (PSY–5) Facet Scales in an Adolescent Inpatient Sample

The Bender-Gestalt was given following the Canter Background Interference Procedure (BIP) to 40 schizophrenics divided into paranoid-nonparanoid and process-reactive sub-categories. Nonparanoids performed significantly poorer under BIP conditions than under standard procedure. Paranoids performed equally well under both conditions. Comparison with Canter's brain-damaged Ss indicated that process nonparanoid schizophrenics resemble brain-damaged Ss using this procedure.     

Repetitive Thought and Health Anxiety: Tests of Specificity

Researchers suggest that worry, rumination, and unwanted intrusive thoughts are forms of repetitive thought (RT) important to health anxiety. To better understand RT-health anxiety interrelations, four tests of specificity between these three forms of RT and health anxiety were completed in the present research using a large community sample of medically healthy adults (N = 410). Results were that worry and rumination shared particularly strong zero-order correlations with health anxiety. In addition, worry, rumination, and unwanted intrusive thoughts each shared statistically stronger zero-order correlations with health anxiety than did another form of RT (i.e., reflection). Moreover, worry, rumination, and unwanted intrusive thoughts each shared unique relations with health anxiety after accounting for negative affect. Finally, these three forms of RT each evidenced incremental validity beyond one another as they relate to health anxiety. The pattern of relations was replicated across three commonly used measures of health anxiety. Implications for the conceptualization, assessment, and treatment of health anxiety are discussed.