情绪代理变量对投资者决策的影响

情绪代理变量是指影响投资者对市场判断的非经济变量,主要包括天气、人体生物钟、月运周期、信念、社会事件、资本形象等。与蝴蝶效应类似,其影响在现实中往往被忽略了,但研究表明它们却会使股票市场出现巨大的波动。文章总结了两类情绪代理变量（“错误归因”情绪变量和“启发式”情绪变量）对投资者决策产生影响的研究,这些研究结果可以使投资者从认识自己的情绪中获益,也可为我国决策层和监管层制定出合理的政策提供依据     

组织价值观结构的实证研究

参照有关文献并结合国内企业的实际情况,编制出企业的组织价值观结构问卷.通过对175名企业员工的预试问卷调查,对426名员工问卷数据的探索性因素分析和对457名被试数据的验证性因素分析,结果发现:组织价值观包含人本取向、团队取向、形象取向、客户取向、产品取向、社会责任取向、创新取向、绩效取向和求真取向等9个因素.     

Young children's selective learning of rule games from reliable and unreliable models

We investigated preschoolers’ selective learning from models that had previously appeared to be reliable or unreliable. Replicating previous research, children from 4 years selectively learned novel words from reliable over unreliable speakers. Extending previous research, children also selectively learned other kinds of acts – novel games – from reliable actors. More important, – and novel to this study, this selective learning was not just based on a preference for one model or one kind of act, but had a normative dimension to it. Children understood the way a reliable actor demonstrated an act not only as the better one, but as the normatively appropriate or correct one, as indicated in both their explicit verbal comments and their spontaneous normative interventions (e.g., protest, critique) in response to third-party acts deviating from the one demonstrated. These findings are discussed in the broader context of the development of children's social cognition and cultural learning.     

Statistical Learning of Unfamiliar Sounds as Trajectories Through a Perceptual Similarity Space

In typical statistical learning studies, researchers define sequences in terms of the probability of the next item in the sequence given the current item (or items), and they show that high probability sequences are treated as more familiar than low probability sequences. Existing accounts of these phenomena all assume that participants represent statistical regularities more or less as they are defined by the experimenters—as sequential probabilities of symbols in a string. Here we offer an alternative, or possibly supplementary, hypothesis. Specifically, rather than identifying or labeling individual stimuli discretely in order to predict the next item in a sequence, we need only assume that the participant is able to represent the stimuli as evincing particular similarity relations to one another, with sequences represented as trajectories through this similarity space. We present experiments in which this hypothesis makes sharply different predictions from hypotheses based on the assumption that sequences are learned over discrete, labeled stimuli. We also present a series of simulation models that encode stimuli as positions in a continuous two‐dimensional space, and predict the next location from the current location. Although no model captures all of the data presented here, the results of three critical experiments are more consistent with the view that participants represent trajectories through similarity space rather than sequences of discrete labels under particular conditions.     

《南海寄归内法传》校注拾补

文章对王邦维先生《南海寄归内法传校注》的几处标点断句问题提出了商榷意见。     

The nonverbal manifestations of cognitive processes in clinical listening

Nonverbal behaviors were observed during communicative sequences in videotaped clinical interviews. The interviews were conducted by two groups of physicians-in-training with contrasting cognitive profiles as determined by well-known laboratory tasks prior to the interviews. In each phase of the communicative sequences, significant differences emerged between the two groups for various types of nonverbal behaviors. Differences also emerged between the two groups of interviewers in their questioning patterns and in the nature of the narrative elicited from their interlocutors. A correlational analysis revealed consistent patterns of behaviors across phases of the communicative sequences. The findings provide additional evidence for the intimate connection between nonverbal behavior and cognitive activity and point to nonverbal behaviors as objective measures of the processes underlying clinical listening.     

Why Friedman's non-monotonic reasoning defies Hempel's covering law model

In this paper we will show that Hempel's covering law model can't deal very well with explanations that are based on incomplete knowledge. In particular the symmetry thesis, which is an important aspect of the covering law model, turns out to be problematic for these explanations. We will discuss an example of an electric circuit, which clearly indicates that the symmetry of explanation and prediction does not always hold. It will be argued that an alternative logic for causal explanation is needed. And we will investigate to what extent non-monotonic epistemic logic can provide such an alternative logical framework. Finally we will show that our non-monotonic logical analysis of explanation is not only suitable for simple cases such as the electric circuit, but that it also sheds new light on more controversial causal explanations such as Milton Friedman's explanation of the business cycle.We gratefully acknowledge the helpful suggestions and critical comments of Johan van Benthem, Bert Hamminga, Kevin Hoover, Theo Kuipers, and Rick Looyen.     

An experimental evaluation of tokens as conditioned reinforcers in retarded children

Since the publication of experimental reports by Wolfe (1936) and Cowles (1937), that tokens could be established as conditioned reinforcers, many accounts have appeared on the implementation of token systems in human subjects. Tokens have been successfully used as prosthetic motivational devices in a great variety of situations and subjects, such as retarded children (Birnbrauer, Wolf, Kidder and Tague, 1965), adult psychotics (Ayllon and Azrin, 1969), delinquent children and adolescents (Tyler, 1967; Phillips and Wolf, 1968), low achievers in schools (Clark, Lachowicz and Wolf, 1968), emotionally disturbed children (Hewett, Taylor and Artuso, 1969) and in normal classroom settings (O'Leary, Becker, Evans and Saudargas, 1969). In these reports, administration of tokens usually produced an increase in the frequency of desirable social and productive behavior. However, none of these studies showed that the effect of the tokens depended on their role as conditioned reinforcers based on the standard exchange systems being used. No assessment was provided about the separate contribution of the social reinforcement operations involved in dispensing tokens in a social setting.A suggestion about the possible confounding effects of social reinforcement in token administration comes from the failure to establish token systems in subjects who are partially unresponsive to social reinforcement (Hamblin et al., 1970; Ribes and Souza e Silva, in preparation). The present research was conducted with the aim of isolating the effects of conditioned reinforcement as such—apart from those produced by the social reinforcement provided in the delivery of tokens.     

On objectivity

The following definition of objective is proposed: A statement S is objective if and only if in S all parameters that are relevant to its truth value are made explicit. The objectivity of predicates and relations can be defined in a similar manner. This simple conception of objectivity-which could be called explicitness conception of objectivity-can be found in Hermann Weyl and plays a central part in the natural sciences. There are grades of objectivity depending on the quality and the number of parameters our predicates are relativized to A relativistic Ockham principle has to be recognized: Relativization parameters are not to be multiplied beyond necessity. The explicitness conception of objectivity is accessible to mathematical specifications, is the core of the idea of invariance, has a lot of philosophical applications and leads to precise notions of subjectivity and a precise formulation of the problem of the limits of objectivity.I am grateful to Andreas Bartels, Ulrich Gähde, Mark Helme, Andreas Kamlah, Andreas Kemmerling, Winfred Klink, Toni Koch, Hilary Putnam and Matthias Varga von Kibéd who have, in one way or another, contributed to the present content and form of this paper.