Diagnostic reasoning with circumstantial evidence

Individuals often evaluate hypotheses about the cause of particular events on the basis of circumstantial evidence. This article describes a quantitative model of belief revision with circumstantial evidence. The model assumes that subjects revise belief on the basis of a cascaded reasoning process that combines beliefs about three premises—the association of a clue and a possible cause, and forward and backward implications of the clue—to revise belief in a causal hypothesis. Subjects in three experiments solved fictional murder mysteries, reporting on each trial a subset of the beliefs specified by the model. Experiment 1 demonstrates that the model provides a good account of the reasoning process, over several contexts in which clues are evaluated. Subjects appear to develop causal models that affect the interpretation of clues. Experiment 2 provides further evidence on the development of causal models and compares the present model with a model based on Bayes' theorem. Experiment 3 is a control experiment which demonstrates that the belief assessments used in Experiments 1 and 2 do not alter the process of belief revision. Tests of subjects' memory for suspect-clue associations provide further support for the hypothesis that subjects develop causal models of the true cause and demonstrate the contrast between reasoning with currently available information and retrospective access to the facts on which belief revision is based. The present view is compared with other theories of causal thinking and belief revision.     

Sociometric status of clinic-referred children with Attention Deficit Disorders with and without Hyperactivity

Peer sociometric nominations of clinic-referred children given the diagnosis of Attention) Deficit Disorder with Hyperactivity (ADD/H) or Attention Deficit Disorder without Hyperactivity (ADD/WO) were compared to one another and to those of normal control children. Only children with ADD diagnoses in the absence of other major diagnoses were included. Both children with ADD/H (n=16) and ADD/WO (n=11) received significantly fewer liked most nominations, more liked least nominations, and lower social preference scores than normal control (n=45) children. These results confirm previous findings of social deficits in children with ADD/H, even when codiagnoses are excluded. In addition, they support the validity of the diagnostic category of ADD/WO by demonstrating that the ADD/WO behavior pattern is apparently psychopathological in being associated with peer unpopularity after codiagnoses are excluded. When larger groups including all codiagnoses (primarily Conduct Disorder) of children with ADD/H (n=36) and ADD/WO (n=20) were compared, identical patterns of peer unpopularity were found, except that children with ADD/H also were significantly more likely to be nominated as a child who fights most.     

Discriminant validity of the Multiple Affect Adjective Check List - revised

Four groups of patients (depressives, schizophrenics, substance dependents and abusers), a miscellaneous group of other patients, and a group of matched normals from a general population sample were compared on the scales of the Multiple Affect Adjective Check List - Revised (MAACL-R). All scales showed highly significant differentiation among the groups. An index consisting of Depression minus Positive Affect scales was particularly effective in discriminating between depressive and other groups. A discriminant function analysis showed that the depressive could be distinguished from other patient groups and normals with an accuracy of 72% correct. The normals could be distinguished from all of the patient groups with a 60% accuracy, and 87% if the substance abuser group is ignored. The discriminant validity among the nondepressive patient groups was not nearly as good.     

Transfer of effort across behaviors

A series of experiments investigated the effects of required force and number of responses per reinforcer upon the subsequent performance of a second behavior. In the first experiment, a group of rats required to complete five round trips in an alley per food pellet subsequently bar-pressed for food at a greater rate than a group rewarded for each round trip or a control group that did not receive the alley experience. In the second experiment, a group required to apply a 70-g bar-press force subsequently shuttled for food at a greater rate than a group required merely to touch the lever or a control group that did not undergo the lever-press manipulation. The third experiment found that the force effect persisted across all five test sessions and was attributable to differences both in response speed and interresponse time. The fourth experiment found that both the necessary bar-press force and number of bar presses per reward affected subsequent shuttling in extinction. Two alternative interpretations of these results were compared: (a) the degree of accustomed effort per reinforcer becomes a generalized component of instrumental behavior or (b) high effort increases the habituation frustration-produced disruptive responses.     

Gender differences in early risk factors for adolescent depression among low-income urban children

One component of a model by Nolen-Hoeksema and Girgus, who propose that risk factors for adolescent depression are more common in girls than in boys during childhood, was tested with 85 low-income, urban, African American and Latino kindergarten through fourth grade children who completed inventories of depression, stress, attributional style, gender role, and body image. Endorsing two of three predicted risk factors, girls reported slightly poorer body image and identified more strongly with a feminine gender role. Boys, however, reported a more negative attributional style. Feminine gender role was not associated with body image or negative attributional style. The applicability of the proposed model to a low-income, ethnic minority, urban population is discussed.     

Aging and visual search: automatic and controlled attentional bias to threat faces

Using a visual search paradigm, we investigated how age affected attentional bias to emotional facial expressions. In Experiments 1 and 2, participants searched for a discrepant facial expression in a matrix of otherwise homogeneous faces. Both younger and older adults showed a more effective search when the discrepant face was angry rather than happy or neutral. However, when the angry faces served as non-target distractors, younger adults' search was less effective than happy or neutral distractor conditions. In contrast, older adults showed a more efficient search with angry distractors than happy or neutral distractors, indicating that older adults were better able to inhibit angry facial expressions. In Experiment 3, we found that even a top-down search goal could not override the angry face superiority effect in guiding attention. In addition, RT distribution analyses supported that both younger and older adults performed the top-down angry face search qualitatively differently from the top-down happy face search. The current research indicates that threat face processing involves automatic attentional shift and a controlled attentional process. The current results suggest that age only influenced the controlled attentional process.     

Women’s Attitudes Toward Testing for Fragile X Carrier Status: A Qualitative Analysis

Fragile X syndrome (FXS) is primarily due to a repeat expansion mutation found in the FMR1 X-linked gene. We have conducted a qualitative analysis of responses from women concerning their attitudes toward testing for carrier status of the fragile X mutation among reproductive-age women. We obtained responses from focus groups including women with and without FXS in their families. We found the following themes: (1) mothers of children with FXS have difficulty formulating their opinions on population screening because of their unique experiences surrounding their own carrier diagnosis and their relationship with their children with FXS, (2) the motivation for carrier testing and need for information differ by family history of FXS and parental status, and (3) the timing of carrier testing with respect to a woman’s life stage dictates whether carrier information will be viewed as beneficial or detrimental. There was evidence that non-carrier women from the general population would be wholly unprepared for positive carrier results. These findings have significant implications for genetic counseling as well as for population screening.     

An empirical test of androgyny in the middle years: Evidence from a national survey

Evidence of changes in gender typing at midlife was empirically tested in a secondary analysis of the Quality of American Life study. Several specific hypotheses were tested. The study looked for indications of increasing femininity and/or decreasing masculinity in middle-aged men, and for decreasing femininity and/or increasing masculinity in middle-aged women. In bivariate analyses and in multiple regression analyses, little empirical support was found for role reversal or androgyny at midlife in this nationally representative sample. Satisfaction with family life was the best predictor of overall life satisfaction for men and women of all ages. Race rather than gender and sex role identity interacted with age to predict life satisfaction. Life satisfaction changed little for whites from young adulthood to late middle age, but life satisfaction increased for blacks who were least satisfied with their lives as young adults.The data and tabulations utilized in this article were made available through the Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research. The data were originally collected by Angus Campbell and Philip E. Converse. Neither the original source or collectors of the data nor the Consortium bear any responsibility for the analyses or interpretations presented here.