A quantum theoretical explanation for probability judgment errors

A quantum probability model is introduced and used to explain human probability judgment errors including the conjunction and disjunction fallacies, averaging effects, unpacking effects, and order effects on inference. On the one hand, quantum theory is similar to other categorization and memory models of cognition in that it relies on vector spaces defined by features and similarities between vectors to determine probability judgments. On the other hand, quantum probability theory is a generalization of Bayesian probability theory because it is based on a set of (von Neumann) axioms that relax some of the classic (Kolmogorov) axioms. The quantum model is compared and contrasted with other competing explanations for these judgment errors, including the anchoring and adjustment model for probability judgments. In the quantum model, a new fundamental concept in cognition is advanced--the compatibility versus incompatibility of questions and the effect this can have on the sequential order of judgments. We conclude that quantum information-processing principles provide a viable and promising new way to understand human judgment and reasoning.     

Chilean validation of the Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Checklist-Civilian version (PCL-C) after the earthquake on February 27, 2010

Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is an anxiety disorder in which an individual re-experiences a traumatic event, avoids situations related to it, and shows excessive arousal. The disorder appears after experiencing a life-threatening event, such as a war or a natural disaster. Thus, the validation of tests which assess the disorder after the earthquake on February 27, 2010, in Chile is crucial for its evaluation and subsequent intervention. The present study includes psychometric data for the Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Checklist-Civilian version (PCL-C) on a sample of 509 survivors of the disaster. Values indicate good psychometric properties of the questionnaire.     

A unique role of endogenous visual-spatial attention in rapid processing of multiple targets

Visual spatial attention can be exogenously captured by a salient stimulus or can be endogenously allocated by voluntary effort. Whether these two attention modes serve distinctive functions is debated, but for processing of single targets the literature suggests superiority of exogenous attention (it is faster acting and serves more functions). We report that endogenous attention uniquely contributes to processing of multiple targets. For speeded visual discrimination, response times are faster for multiple redundant targets than for single targets because of probability summation and/or signal integration. This redundancy gain was unaffected when attention was exogenously diverted from the targets but was completely eliminated when attention was endogenously diverted. This was not a result of weaker manipulation of exogenous attention because our exogenous and endogenous cues similarly affected overall response times. Thus, whereas exogenous attention is superior for processing single targets, endogenous attention plays a unique role in allocating resources crucial for rapid concurrent processing of multiple targets.     

Individual and relational contributions to parallel and joint attention in infancy

Objective

This study examined the contributions of maternal bids for joint attention, relationship quality, and infant characteristics, to individual differences in infants’ parallel and joint attention.

Method

Fifty-two 10-month-olds and their mothers were assessed in order to investigate concurrent predictors of infant parallel attention, responding to joint attention, and initiating joint attention.

Results

Parallel attention was predicted by infants’ higher mental development, low expression of negative emotionality, and maternal entertaining behaviors. Responding to joint attention was marginally predicted by total maternal bids for joint attention. Initiating joint attention was predicted by the infants’ low expression of negative emotionality, as well as marginally predicted by fewer maternal teaching behaviors.

Conclusion

These results further the understanding of the factors influencing infant parallel as well as joint attention.     

Attachment and the management of empathic accuracy in relationship-threatening situations

The current studies tested how attachment orientations are related to empathic accuracy (i.e., the accuracy with which one infers a partner's private thoughts and feelings) during attachment-relevant discussions. In Study 1, married couples were videotaped discussing a severe or a less severe relationship issue that involved intimacy or jealousy. In Study 2, dating couples were videotaped trying to resolve a relationship conflict. Consistent with the revised empathic accuracy model, highly avoidant individuals were less empathically accurate in both studies. Relative to less anxious persons, highly anxious individuals were more empathically accurate when discussing intimacy issues that posed a potential threat to their relationship (in Study 1) and when they were rated as more distressed when discussing a relationship conflict (in Study 2). The findings are discussed in terms of how highly anxious and highly avoidant people differentially manage empathic accuracy to regulate negative affect and facilitate their interpersonal goals.     

The effect of local kinematic changes on anticipation judgments

Skilled tennis players rely on a more global than local perceptual strategy when anticipating an opponent’s shot direction in tennis (Williams, Huys, Cañal-Bruland, & Hagemann, 2009). Global perceptual strategy refers to the pick-up of dynamic information across different body areas rather than from a single source such as the arm or racket. We extend previous work by examining the spatiotemporal characteristics of visual information pick-up when anticipating shot direction in tennis. We perturbed information from various body locations by interchanging the dynamics of selected areas with those from strokes played to the opposite side of the court. In addition, we presented each manipulation under four different temporal occlusion conditions (from 240 ms prior to racket-ball contact) to examine the time course of information extraction. Skilled tennis players outperformed less skilled counterparts in predicting shot direction, even at early phases of the opponent’s motion. Moreover, skilled players showed significant decrements in performance when the arms and racket were perturbed, highlighting the relevance of distal information when anticipating opponents’ intentions.     

Cognitive abilities, sociocultural background and academic achievement

The influence of students' sociocultural background on academic achievement is a well established fact. Research also points out that sociocultural background is related to students' cognitive abilities and these have an effect on their academic achievement. However, the mediator role of cognitive abilities on the relationship between sociocultural background and academic achievement is less well known. A structural equation model that represents these relationships was tested in a sample (N= 728) of Portuguese junior high school students. Multigroup analysis of the model showed the importance of the cognitive ability mediation effect between sociocultural background and academic achievement in the 7th and 9th grades, but not in the 8th grade. This difference may be the result of the academic transition experienced in the 7th and 9th grades in the Portuguese educational system, which requires parents' higher involvement in school.     

Dispositional optimism, pessimism and realism in technological potential entrepreneurs

Optimism has been classically considered a key trait in entrepreneurs' personality but it has been studied from a psychological point of view only in recent years. The main aim of this research is to study the relationship between dispositional optimism, pessimism and realism as a function of the tendency to create technology-based businesses. A sample of undergraduate students (n= 205) filled in an electronic questionnaire containing the Life Orientation Test-Revised after they were classified as potential technological entrepreneurs, potential general entrepreneurs and non-potential entrepreneurs. Our results show that technology-based entrepreneurs are more optimistic than non-potential entrepreneurs, whereas there were no statistical differences in pessimism and realism. The results are interpreted theoretically to define the potential entrepreneur and, from an applied perspective, to design training programmes to support future technological entrepreneurs.     

Psychopathic personality as a distinctive indicator of severity and persistence for child and youth conduct problems

Conduct problems are among the most discussed behavioral problems during childhood and adolescence. Given their heterogeneity, in recent years, researchers on this topic have called for delineation of early-onset conduct problems on the basis of affective, interpersonal and behavioral traits that resemble adult psychopathy. The present study aims to analyze, from both a cross-sectional and longitudinal perspective, whether early psychopathic traits allow identification of a group of individuals defined by severe and persistent behavioral problems. To achieve this goal, data from a sample of 192 children (aged 6 to 11) were analyzed; from this sample, 133 children were followed-up in a new data collection that took place three years later. From the data obtained with the mCPS and CBCL (parents), and APSD and TRF (teachers), we observed that children who showed early psychopathic traits, also showed greater frequency, severity and persistence of conduct problems. These results suggest the need to take into account the role of psychopathic traits (particularly, affective and interpersonal) as risk factors to delimit the most serious and persistent patterns of externalizing behavior.