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Philosophia - This article argues that bullshit is not an offense against truth but against reason. It maintains that bullshit occurs when speakers intentionally assert vague premises to make... 相似文献
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Daniel Osherson Edward E. Smith Eldar Shafir Antoine Gualtierotti Kevin Biolsi 《Cognitive Science》1995,19(3):377-405
Establishing reasonable, prior distributions remains a significant obstacle for the construction of probabilistic expert systems. Human assessment of chance is often relied upon for this purpose, but this has the drawback of being inconsistent with axioms of probability. This article advances a method for extracting a coherent distribution of probability from human judgment. The method is based on a psychological model of probabilistic reasoning, followed by a correction phase using linear programming. 相似文献