True Overconfidence in Interval Estimates: Evidence Based on a New Measure of Miscalibration

Overconfidence is often regarded as one of the most prevalent judgment biases. Several studies show that overconfidence can lead to suboptimal decisions of investors, managers, or politicians. Recent research, however, questions whether overconfidence should be regarded as a bias and shows that standard “overconfidence” findings can easily be explained by different degrees of knowledge of agents plus a random error in predictions. We contribute to the current literature and ongoing research by extensively analyzing interval estimates for knowledge questions, for real financial time series, and for artificially generated charts. We thereby suggest a new method to measure overconfidence in interval estimates, which is based on the implied probability mass behind a stated prediction interval. We document overconfidence patterns, which are difficult to reconcile with rationality of agents and which cannot be explained by differences in knowledge as differences in knowledge do not exist in our task. Furthermore, we show that overconfidence measures are reliable in the sense that there exist stable individual differences in the degree of overconfidence in interval estimates, thereby testing an important assumption of behavioral economics and behavioral finance models: stable individual differences in the degree of overconfidence across people. We do this in a “field experiment,” for different levels of expertise of subjects (students on the one hand and professional traders and investment bankers on the other hand), over time, by using different miscalibration metrics, and for tasks that avoid common weaknesses such as a non‐representative selection of trick questions. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Defining stuttering for research purposes

This is a response to a Letter to the Editor entitled “Stuttering prevalence, incidence and recovery rates depend on how we define it: Comment on Yairi & Ambrose’ article Epidemiology of Stuttering: 21st Century advances” by Paul Brocklehurst (2013). The criticism was directed specifically toward Yairi and Ambrose’ conclusions, based on review of recent studies, regarding the incidence and prevalence of stuttering. In this response, Brocklehurst's arguments and suggestions of criteria for incidence research are discussed and negated.     

An analysis of speech disfluencies in down''s syndrome and in normally intelligent subjects

Spontaneous speech samples were obtained from 19 institutionalized mongoloids and from 19 normally intelligent individuals. All subjects were evaluated by a panel of speech pathologists to be nonstutterers. Subjects' speech samples were analyzed to determine (a) frequency of occurance of seven disfluency categories per 100 words spoken, (b) the proportion of each category in the total number of disfluencies. Statistically significant differences indicated that the mongoloids were more disfluent both absolutely and relatively, on categories that have been regarded as most typical to speech of stutterers. Interpretations were made to reflect on factors which may enhance the high prevalence of stuttering among Down's Syndrome patients.     

Longitudinal associations between mindfulness and well-being in people with multiple sclerosis

Background/Objective: Depression, anxiety, fatigue, and sleep problems are typical conditions reported in people with multiple sclerosis (MS), often resulting in a reduction of their quality of life (QOL) and well-being. Mindfulness is a multifaceted and complex construct that has been increasingly explored for its correlated to well-being. Despite preliminary evidence, longitudinal data about the impact of mindfulness on QOL in MS remain limited. In addition, Langerian mindfulness, one of the prominent approaches to mindfulness, is yet unexplored in this field. The study aims to examine the longitudinal relationships between two forms of mindfulness (Langerian and contemplative) and QOL, anxiety, depression, fatigue, and sleep. Method: Within a larger randomized controlled trial of an online mindfulness-based stress reduction intervention, a cohort of 156 people with MS was recruited and assessed for both mindfulness constructs, QOL, anxiety, depression, fatigue, and sleep problems. Assessments were repeated after 2 and after another 6 months. Results: Both mindfulness constructs were highly correlated with all investigated outcomes. Both Langerian and contemplative mindfulness predicted higher QOL, lower anxiety, depression, fatigue, and sleep, over time. Conclusions: In both approaches dispositional mindfulness is a protective factor against depression, anxiety, fatigue, and sleep in people with MS.     

What children infer from social categories

Children hold the belief that social categories have essences. We investigated what kinds of properties children feel licensed to infer about a person based on social category membership. Seventy-two 4-6-year-olds were introduced to novel social categories defined as having one internal - psychological or biological - and one external - behavioral or physical - property. For half of the participants, the internal property was described as causing the external one; for the others, no causal relationship between properties was mentioned. Children were asked to choose as a novel exemplar of a category one with only the internal or only the external property. Children inferred that exemplars had a psychological property irrespective of causal status, but they inferred the presence of a biological property only when described as causal. Children did not draw systematic inferences regarding either of the two external properties. These findings indicate that children treat psychological and causal properties as central - and perhaps essential - to human kinds.     

The Relationship Quality Interview: evidence of reliability, convergent and divergent validity, and incremental utility

Relationship satisfaction and adjustment have been the target outcome variables for almost all couple research and therapies. In contrast, far less attention has been paid to the assessment of relationship quality. The present study introduces the Relationship Quality Interview (RQI), a semistructured, behaviorally anchored individual interview. The RQI was designed to provide a more objective assessment of relationship quality as a dynamic, dyadic construct across 5 dimensions: (a) quality of emotional intimacy in the relationship, (b) quality of the couple's sexual relationship, (c) quality of support transactions in the relationship, (d) quality of the couple's ability to share power in the relationship, and (e) quality of conflict/problem-solving interactions in the relationship. Psychometric properties of RQI ratings were examined through scores obtained from self-report questionnaires and behavioral observation data collected cross-sectionally from a sample of 91 dating participants and longitudinally from a sample of 101 married couples. RQI ratings demonstrated strong reliability (internal consistency, interrater agreement, interpartner agreement, and correlations among scales), convergent validity (correlations between RQI scale ratings and questionnaire scores assessing similar domains of relationship quality), and divergent validity (correlations between RQI scale ratings and (a) behavioral observation codes assessing related constructs, (b) global relationship satisfaction scores, and (c) scores on individual difference measures of related constructs). Clinical implications of the RQI for improving couple assessment and interventions are discussed.     

Reducing Stereotyping Through Mindfulness: Effects on Automatic Stereotype-Activated Behaviors

We assessed whether mindfulness (active categorization) can prevent automatic stereotype-activated behaviors related to the elderly. Eighty participants (mean age = 24.4) were given a set of photographs to prime the dimension Old Age and were asked to categorize them multiple times, to see whether the effect of the prime could be reduced through increased mindfulness. Participants were randomly assigned to one of four conditions, where they were asked to categorize the photographs across (1) four self-generated categories; (2) four assigned categories; (3) a single category—Gender; or (4) a single category—Age. Participants’ walking speed (cf. Bargh et al. 1996, Experiment 2) was then measured, as they moved between the two experimental stations. The results show that greater mindfulness predicted greater walking speed, indicating a decrease in the effect of the automatic stereotype-activated behavior.

When linking is stronger than thinking: Associative transfer of valence disrupts the emergence of cognitive balance after attitude change

The present research investigated the role of cognitive balance vs. associative transfer of valence in attitude change. Participants first formed positive or negative attitudes toward several source individuals. Subsequently, participants were shown source–target pairs along with information about the source–target relationship (‘likes’/‘dislikes’). Afterwards, participants’ attitudes toward the sources were changed by means of information that was opposite to the initially induced attitude. In a control condition, initial source attitudes remained unqualified. Results in the control condition showed that initially formed attitudes and available relationship information produced target evaluations that were consistent with the notion of cognitive balance. However, when attitudes toward the sources changed, target evaluations directly matched attitudes toward individually associated sources, irrespective of the relation between source and target. These results suggest that associative transfer of valence can disrupt the emergence of cognitive balance after attitude change.