What kind of bias is hindsight bias?

When people are asked to recollect a former response after having received feedback information, their recollection tends to approach the feedback answer. This phenomenon is referred to as hindsight bias. Recently, Erdfelder and Buchner proposed a multinomial model designed to independently measure the contributions of reconstruction and recollection processes. On its basis, they only found firm evidence for the contribution of reconstruction biases to hindsight effects. In the present study, we tried to experimentally enhance the probability of recollection biases by (a) reducing the depth of processing of the original estimate, (b) minimizing the distinctness of the original estimate and feedback, and (c) combining both treatments. The empirical data were analyzed using a variant of the Erdfelder and Buchner model which allows for the experimental manipulation of the feedback answer. This model is shown to adequately describe the data of our experiment. Moreover, although both treatments were effective in that the first one reduced correct recollections in general and the second one diminished differences between original estimates and recalled estimates, the parameter estimates indicate that the probability of recollecting the original estimate is not hampered by feedback information, even under conditions which are thought to enhance memory impairments. Received: 10 December 1995 / Accepted: 29 October 1997     

GPOWER: A general power analysis program

GPOWER is a completely interactive, menu-driven program for IBM-compatible and Apple Macintosh personal computers. It performs high-precision statistical power analyses for the most common statistical tests in behavioral research, that is,t tests,F tests, andχ ² tests. GPOWER computes (1) power values for given sample sizes, effect sizes andα levels (post hoc power analyses); (2) sample sizes for given effect sizes,α levels, and power values (a priori power analyses); and (3)α andβ values for given sample sizes, effect sizes, andβ/α ratios (compromise power analyses). The program may be used to display graphically the relation between any two of the relevant variables, and it offers the opportunity to compute the effect size measures from basic parameters defining the alternative hypothesis. This article delineates reasons for the development of GPOWER and describes the program’s capabilities and handling.     

The allocation of memory resources during sentence comprehension: Evidence from the elderly

Two experiments were carried out to examine the ability of elderly subjects to establish syntactically governed dependency relations during the course of sentence comprehension. The findings reveal the manner in which memory constraints operate during syntactic processing.     

An empirical comparison of restricted and general latent distance analysis

Latent distance analysis provides a probability model for the non-perfect Guttman scale; the restricted latent distance structure is simpler to compute than the general structure. Since no sampling theory for latent structure analysis is available, the advantages of the general structure cannot be expressed formally. The two structures are compared in terms of their fit to fifteen sets of empirical data. The computation schemes used are summarized.     

The sociotectonics of the Noosphere

Der Ausdruck Soziotektonik bezeichnet das Netzwerk menschlicher Wechselwirkungen, welche durch Symbole und Signale übermittelt werden und die Koordination und Integration verschiedener Sozialsysteme ermöglichen. Jedes Sozialnetzwerk ist zeitbedingt und seine Evolution ist das Ergebnis menschlicher Entscheidungen. Die Entwicklung kann im Rückblick beschrieben werden; im Vorausblick können nur Wahrscheinlichkeitsaussagen gemacht werden. Die Teilsysteme sind nicht hierarchisch untergeordnet, sondern heterarchisch beigeordnet und unterliegen infolgedessen unvereinbaren Einflüssen. Der Grad der möglichen Harmonisierung kann mathematisch-topologisch formuliert werden.

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Anmerkung der Herausgeber: Dr. Taschdjian ist am 3. Mai 1988 verstorben. Wir danken seiner Frau, Claire L. Taschdjian, für die Fahnenkorrektur.     

Conceptions différenciées et non différenciées de la compétence et de l'effort en fonction de l'âge: conséquences sur les affects et sur les stratégies d'auto-handicap

Quatre-vingt seize sujets de 7 à 9 ans et de 13 à 15 ans ont travaillé sur un texte dans deux conditions d'implication (ego versus tâche). Après avoir été crédités de feedback de compétence ou d'incompétence, ils furent requis d'inférer leur niveau d'effort, d'évaluer leurs affects (fierté, embarras et culpabilité) et de donner leurs raisons de l'effort mis en jeu (stratégies d'auto-handicap). Les résultats confirment que les adolescents se réfèrent à une conception différenciée de la compétence et de l'effort en situation d'implication de l'Ego, et utilisent une conception moins différenciée dans des conditions d'implication dans la tâche. Les affects résultent eux-mêmes de ces conceptions. Mais les buts d'implication de l'Ego, qui accentuent les menaces pour l'estime de soi, suscitent en retour des stratégies de protection de soi que les individus appliquent effectivement à eux-mêmes.     

Grammatical class effects in relation to normal and aphasic sentence processing

Agrammatic, Broca's aphasic patients, Wernicke's aphasic patients, and neurologically intact control subjects were asked to detect target letters in prose passages and in a scrambled word passage. The targets were embedded, in some instances, in content words (open-class vocabulary items), and in other instances, in function words (closed-class vocabulary items). With respect to the prose passages, both the control subjects and Wernicke's aphasic patients were more apt to notice target letters when they appeared in the open-class items than when in closed-class items; by contrast, the agrammatic Broca's patients showed no vocabulary class detection difference. The Wernicke's patients were not entirely normal, however: Whereas the normal subjects showed a much smaller vocabulary class effect for letter detection in the scrambled condition, the Wernicke's maintained the pattern they had shown in the prose condition. These and other findings obtained on the letter cancellation task are discussed in relation to lexical access mechanisms geared to sentence parsing.     

The Tower of London Test: different scoring criteria for diagnosing Alzheimer's disease and mild cognitive impairment

The Tower of London (TOL) is used for evaluating planning skills, which is a component of the executive functions. Different versions and scoring criteria were developed for this task, and some of them present with different psychometrical properties. This study aimed to evaluate two specific scoring methods of the TOL in diagnosing Mild Cognitive Impairment and probable Alzheimer's disease. The TOL total scores from 60 patients of each diagnosis were compared with the performance of 60 healthy-aged controls using receiver operating characteristics analysis and multinomial logistic regression. Krikorian method better diagnosed Alzheimer's disease, while Portellas's was better at discriminating healthy controls from Mild Cognitive Impairment, but were not efficient at comparing this last group with Alzheimer's patients. Regression analysis indicates that in addition to screening tests, TOL improves the classification of the three groups. The results suggest the two scoring methods used for this task may be useful for different diagnostic purposes.