Estimating the Expected Replicability of a Pattern of Correlations and Other Measures of Association

Replication is at the heart of all empirical sciences. However, there are no standard procedures for establishing the replicability of a pattern of correlations found linking a particular variable to an inventory or battery of other measures. This article introduces 2 statistics for quantifying the expected replicability of a pattern of associations (i.e., correlations, slope coefficients) between a variable of interest and a SET of other variables, items, measures, and so on. Using simulations and real data, we illustrate that these statistics are highly accurate estimates of the expected replicability of an observed pattern of correlations. These statistics can readily be used to indicate the replicability of patterns of association indexed by other statistics (e.g., regression slopes or covariances) and can be applied to other contexts, such as estimating the reliability of profile correlations. It is recommended that these statistics are regularly reported in such studies.     

The relationship of entrepreneurial traits, skill, and motivation to subsequent venture growth

Previous research on entrepreneurship as well as goal, social-cognitive, and leadership theories has guided hypotheses regarding the relationship between entrepreneurial traits and skill (passion, tenacity, and new resource skill) and situationally specific motivation (communicated vision, self-efficacy, and goals) to subsequent venture growth. Data from 229 entrepreneur-chief executive officers and 106 associates in a single industry were obtained in a 6-year longitudinal study. Structural equation modeling revealed a web of relationships that impact venture growth. Goals, self-efficacy, and communicated vision had direct effects on venture growth, and these factors mediated the effects of passion, tenacity, and new resource skill on subsequent growth. Furthermore, communicated vision and self-efficacy were related to goals, and tenacity was related to new resource skill.     

Cross-sectional and longitudinal tests of the Personality and Role Identity Structural Model (PRISM)

A conceptual hierarchy termed the Personality and Role Identity Structural Model, or PRISM, is offered as a framework for incorporating situational information into trait models. PRISM assumes that personality is structured hierarchically with general dispositions subsuming context-specific dispositions (role identities), which, in turn, subsume role-based thoughts, feelings, and behaviors. At Wave 1 (N = 149), we found that general traits account for commonalities across traits measured within role identities and that role identities mediate the relationship between general traits and role criteria. In a longitudinal follow-up of a subsample of the original participants (Wave 2; N = 62), we found that general traits and role-identity traits were more stable than role experiences over time. Also, changes in role experiences were related to changes in role-identity traits, and, in turn, changes in role-identity traits were related to changes in general traits. The potential of PRISM for use in understanding the development of personality traits is discussed.     

Duplicate publication and ‘paper inflation’ in the fractals literature

The similarity of documents in a large database of published Fractals articles was examined for redundancy. Three different text matching techniques were used on published Abstracts to identify redundancy candidates, and predictions were verified by reading full text versions of the redundancy candidate articles. A small fraction of the total articles in the database was judged to be redundant. This was viewed as a lower limit, because it excluded cases where the concepts remained the same, but the text was altered substantially. Far more pervasive than redundant publications were publications that did not violate the letter of redundancy but rather violated the spirit of redundancy. There appeared to be widespread publication maximization strategies. Studies that resulted in one comprehensive paper decades ago now result in multiple papers that focus on one major problem, but are differentiated by parameter ranges, or other stratifying variables. This ‘paper inflation’ is due in large part to the increasing use of metrics (publications, patents, citations, etc) to evaluate research performance, and the researchers’ motivation to maximize the metrics. The views in this paper are solely those of the authors, and do not necessarily represent the views of the Department of the Navy or any of its components, UNAM, University of Virginia or University of Karlsruhe.     

Goal-directedness and personal identity as correlates of life outcomes

Although much research has been conducted on goal setting, researchers have not examined goal-directedness or propensity to set goals as a stable human characteristic in adults. In this study, a survey was developed and distributed to 104 adult participants to assess their goal-directedness, personal identity, and various life outcomes. A theoretical model was developed and tested using structural equation modeling that proposed that both goal-directedness and personal identity should positivcly influence important life outcomes. Analysis showed that goal-directedness and personal identity are positively related to personal well-being, salary, and marital satisfaction. Further, personal identity was positively related to job satisfaction but, contrary to related research, goal-directedness did not predict job satisfaction.     

Building a practically useful theory of goal setting and task motivation. A 35-year odyssey

The authors summarize 35 years of empirical research on goal-setting theory. They describe the core findings of the theory, the mechanisms by which goals operate, moderators of goal effects, the relation of goals and satisfaction, and the role of goals as mediators of incentives. The external validity and practical significance of goal-setting theory are explained, and new directions in goal-setting research are discussed. The relationships of goal setting to other theories are described as are the theory's limitations.     

Chronometric evidence for entrained attention

Recent theories of dynamic attention have renewed the interest in temporal context as a determinant of attention. The mechanism of dynamic attention remains unclear, and both stochastic time perception processes and deterministic oscillators are possible. The results of Experiment 1 demonstrate that attention can be guided by isochronous series of warning stimuli and that elapsed time cannot fully account for this effect. Experiment 2 indicates that temporal structure can be used over a limited range of time. The results of Experiment 3 indicate that temporal pattern, rather than variability, is a determinant of temporally focused attention. The results of Experiment 4 demonstrate that a coupled oscillator is a better predictor of reaction time than a stochastic timing mechanism is, under certain assumptions.     

Connecting the horizontal dimension of social comparison with self-worth and self-confidence

Multilevel modeling of undergraduates (N = 229) event-contingent records of naturalistic social comparison experiences revealed distinct correlates of the horizontal (similar-different) dimension and vertical (better-worse) dimension of comparisons. Complementing past studies showing associations between the horizontal dimension and communal dispositions and experiences, the current study showed that the horizontal dimension also is associated with agentic dispositions and experiences such as self-worth and self-confidence. For example, participants perceived more similarity when comparing with targets' desirable attributes than with targets' undesirable attributes and perceiving similarities with desirable target attributes (and dissimilarities with undesirable target attributes) enhanced their self-confidence. Participants higher in self-worth (high in self-esteem and low in depression) were more discriminating in their experiences of similarity and connection; specifically, they reported more similarity and connection when targets' attributes were desirable but less connection the more targets' attributes were inferior to their own.     

Satisfaction in interpersonal interactions as a function of similarity in level of dysphoria

This study compared dysphoric and nondysphoric male and female undergraduates as they conversed with dysphoric or nondysphoric undergraduates of the same sex. Subjects rated their satisfaction with the conversation after each turn. The results showed that people in homogeneous dyads (i.e., both partners were dysphoric or both partners were nondysphoric) were more satisfied with the interaction, and their satisfaction increased as the conversation proceeded. People in mixed dyads were less satisfied, perceived each other as colder, and spoke about increasingly negative topics. Thus, in accord with other research showing that similarity leads to liking, the crucial determinant of interactional satisfaction was neither the mood of the subject nor the mood of the partner, but their similarity in mood.