Revisiting Case IV: A reassessment of bias and standard errors of Case IV under range restriction

In 2004, Hunter and Schmidt proposed a correction (called Case IV) that seeks to estimate disattenuated correlations when selection is made on an unmeasured variable. Although Case IV is an important theoretical development in the range restriction literature, it makes an untestable assumption, namely that the partial correlation between the unobserved selection variable and the performance measure is zero. We show in this paper why this assumption may be difficult to meet and why previous simulations have failed to detect the full extent of bias. We use meta‐analytic literature to investigate the plausible range of bias. We also show how Case IV performs in terms of standard errors. Finally, we give practical recommendations about how the contributions of Hunter and Schmidt (2004) can be extended without making such stringent assumptions.     

Estimating the Expected Replicability of a Pattern of Correlations and Other Measures of Association

Replication is at the heart of all empirical sciences. However, there are no standard procedures for establishing the replicability of a pattern of correlations found linking a particular variable to an inventory or battery of other measures. This article introduces 2 statistics for quantifying the expected replicability of a pattern of associations (i.e., correlations, slope coefficients) between a variable of interest and a SET of other variables, items, measures, and so on. Using simulations and real data, we illustrate that these statistics are highly accurate estimates of the expected replicability of an observed pattern of correlations. These statistics can readily be used to indicate the replicability of patterns of association indexed by other statistics (e.g., regression slopes or covariances) and can be applied to other contexts, such as estimating the reliability of profile correlations. It is recommended that these statistics are regularly reported in such studies.     

Animacy,perceptual load,and inattentional blindness

Inattentional blindness is the failure to notice unexpected objects in a visual scene while engaging in an attention-demanding task. We examined the effects of animacy and perceptual load on inattentional blindness. Participants searched for a category exemplar under low or high perceptual load. On the last trial, the participants were exposed to an unexpected object that was either animate or inanimate. Unexpected objects were detected more frequently when they were animate rather than inanimate, and more frequently with low than with high perceptual loads. We also measured working memory capacity and found that it predicted the detection of unexpected objects, but only with high perceptual loads. The results are consistent with the animate-monitoring hypothesis, which suggests that animate objects capture attention because of the importance of the detection of animate objects in ancestral hunter–gatherer environments.     

Effects of anonymous peer observation on adolescents' preference for immediate rewards

Research suggests that the presence of peers influences adolescent risk‐taking by increasing the perceived reward value of risky decisions. While prior work has involved observation of participants by their friends, the current study examined whether observation by an anonymous peer could elicit similarly increased reward sensitivity. Late adolescent participants completed a delay discounting task either alone or under the belief that performance was being observed from a neighboring room by an unknown viewer of the same gender and age. Even in this limited social context, participants demonstrated a significantly increased preference for smaller, immediate rewards when they believed that they were being watched. This outcome challenges several intuitive accounts of the peer effect on adolescent risk‐taking, and indicates that the peer influence on reward sensitivity during late adolescence is not dependent on familiarity with the observer. The findings have both theoretical and practical implications for our understanding of social influences on adolescents' risky behavior.     

Duty orientation: Theoretical development and preliminary construct testing

We develop and test the construct of duty orientation that we propose is valuable to advancing knowledge about ethical behavior in organizations. Duty orientation represents an individual’s volitional orientation to loyally serve and faithfully support other members of the group, to strive and sacrifice to accomplish the tasks and missions of the group, and to honor its codes and principles. We test the construct validity and predictive validity of a measure of duty orientation across five studies and six samples. Consistent with the conceptualization of duty orientation as a malleable construct, we found in separate field studies that duty orientation mediates the relationship between ethical leadership and ethical and unethical behaviors, and between transformational leadership and ethical behavior. In predicting ethical and unethical behavior, duty orientation demonstrated incremental predictive validity beyond the effects of affective organizational commitment, organizational identification, experienced job responsibility, collective self-construal, and organizational values congruence.     

Domain Knowledge and Hindsight Bias among Poker Players

Hindsight bias occurs when individuals believe that events were more predictable after they have occurred than they actually were before they occurred. Although hindsight bias is a well‐studied phenomenon, few studies have examined the role of expertise in this bias. Two experiments investigated the relation between the magnitude of hindsight bias and self‐reported poker expertise (Experiment 1) and assessed poker knowledge (Experiment 2). In Experiment 1, self‐rated poker expertise was negatively correlated with hindsight bias. Experiment 2 employed memory and hypothetical hindsight conditions and found that poker knowledge was negatively correlated with hindsight bias in the memory condition, but unrelated to hindsight bias in the hypothetical condition. These results help elucidate the role of expertise in hindsight bias and provide additional support for the separate components view, which claims there are different forms of hindsight bias that are differentially affected by certain factors. Domain knowledge appears to be one of such factors. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mechanisms of health: Education and health-related behaviours partially mediate the relationship between conscientiousness and self-reported physical health

The personality trait of conscientiousness is an important predictor of health and longevity. The present research examined how conscientiousness, in combination with educational attainment and health-related behaviours, predicted self-reported physical health across adulthood. These relations were investigated in two studies, one using a large, representative sample of Illinois residents (N = 617) and the other using a community sample with a multi-method assessment of conscientiousness (N = 274). Across both studies, structural path analyses provided evidence for a model wherein conscientiousness predicted health, in part, through its relationship to both educational attainment and health-related behaviours. The findings suggest conscientiousness predicts health through a diverse set of mechanisms including, but not limited to, educational attainment and health-related behaviours.     

Working Memory Deficits and Social Problems in Children with ADHD

Social problems are a prevalent feature of ADHD and reflect a major source of functional impairment for these children. The current study examined the impact of working memory deficits on parent- and teacher-reported social problems in a sample of children with ADHD and typically developing boys (N = 39). Bootstrapped, bias-corrected mediation analyses revealed that the impact of working memory deficits on social problems is primarily indirect. That is, impaired social interactions in children with ADHD reflect, to a significant extent, the behavioral outcome of being unable to maintain a focus of attention on information within working memory while simultaneously dividing attention among multiple, on-going events and social cues occurring within the environment. Central executive deficits impacted social problems through both inattentive and impulsive-hyperactive symptoms, whereas the subsidiary phonological and visuospatial storage/rehearsal systems demonstrated a more limited yet distinct relationship with children’s social problems.     

Competing Core Processes in Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD): Do Working Memory Deficiencies Underlie Behavioral Inhibition Deficits?

The current study examined competing predictions of the working memory and behavioral inhibition models of ADHD. Behavioral inhibition was measured using a conventional stop-signal task, and central executive, phonological, and visuospatial working memory components (Baddeley 2007) were assessed in 14 children with ADHD and 13 typically developing (TD) children. Bootstrapped mediation analyses revealed that the visuospatial working memory system and central executive both mediated the relationship between group membership (ADHD, TD) and stop-signal task performance. Conversely, stop-signal task performance mediated the relationship between group membership and central executive processes, but was unable to account for the phonological and visuospatial storage/rehearsal deficits consistently found in children with ADHD. Comparison of effect size estimates for both models suggested that working memory deficits may underlie impaired stop-signal task performance in children with ADHD. The current findings therefore challenge existing models of ADHD that describe behavioral inhibition as a core deficit of the disorder.     

On Guessing: An Alternative Adjusted Positive Learning Estimator and Comparing Probability Misspecification With Monte Carlo Simulations

Practitioners in the sciences have used the “flow” of knowledge (post-test score minus pre-test score) to measure learning in the classroom for the past 50 years. Walstad and Wagner, and Smith and Wagner moved this practice forward by disaggregating the flow of knowledge and accounting for student guessing. These estimates are sensitive to misspecification of the probability of guessing correct. This work provides guidance to practitioners and researchers facing this problem. We introduce a transformed measure of true positive learning that under some knowable conditions performs better when students’ ability to guess correctly is misspecified and converges to Hake’s normalized learning gain estimator under certain conditions. We then use simulations to compare the accuracy of two estimation techniques under various violations of the assumptions of those techniques. Using recursive partitioning trees fitted to our simulation results, we provide the practitioner concrete guidance based on a set of yes/no questions.