Judgmental forecasts of time series affected by special events: does providing a statistical forecast improve accuracy?

Time series found in areas such as marketing and sales often have regular established patterns which are occasionally affected by exogenous influences, such as sales promotions. While statistical forecasting methods are adept at extrapolating regular patterns in series, judgmental forecasters have a potential advantage in that they can take into account the effect of these external influences, which may occur too infrequently for reliable statistical estimation. This suggests that a combination of statistical method and judgment is appropriate. An experiment was conducted to examine how judgmental forecasters make use of statistical time series forecasts when series are subject to sporadic special events. This was investigated under different conditions which were created by varying the complexity of the time series signal, the level of noise in the series, the salience of the cue, the predictive power of the cue information and the availability and presentation of the statistical forecast. Although the availability of a statistical forecast improved judgment under some conditions, the use the judgmental forecasters made of these forecasts was far from optimal. They changed the statistical forecasts when they were highly reliable and ignored them when they would have formed an ideal base‐line for adjustment. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reflective minds and open hearts: Cognitive style and personality predict religiosity and spiritual thinking in a community sample

We examined associations between two psychological constructs, analytic cognitive style and the personality facet ‘Openness to Experience’, and several dimensions of religiosity: religious affiliation, strength of faith and spiritual epistemology. In a relatively large (N = 1093), older community sample (M = 55.4 years), analytic cognitive style was associated with a lower probability of affiliating with a religious denomination and a higher probability of possessing strong religious faith. Overall, openness was also associated with a lack of religious affiliation but was positively related to possessing a spiritual epistemology. A path‐analytic model revealed that openness had a positive relationship to both faith and religious denomination that was mediated by spiritual epistemology, but negative direct relationships with religiosity after the meditational effects were taken into account. Taken together, these results extend previous findings on the effect of cognitive style on religiosity and provide a new perspective on the complex relationship between cognitive and personality factors and different dimensions of religiosity. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Cardiovascular Reactivity During Marital Conflict in Laboratory and Naturalistic Settings: Differential Associations with Relationship and Individual Functioning Across Contexts

Cardiovascular reactivity during spousal conflict is considered to be one of the main pathways for relationship distress to impact physical, mental, and relationship health. However, the magnitude of association between cardiovascular reactivity during laboratory marital conflict and relationship functioning is small and inconsistent given the scope of its importance in theoretical models of intimate relationships. This study tests the possibility that cardiovascular data collected in laboratory settings downwardly bias the magnitude of these associations when compared to measures obtained in naturalistic settings. Ambulatory cardiovascular reactivity data were collected from 20 couples during two relationship conflicts in a research laboratory, two planned relationship conflicts at couples’ homes, and two spontaneous relationship conflicts during couples’ daily lives. Associations between self‐report measures of relationship functioning, individual functioning, and cardiovascular reactivity across settings are tested using multilevel models. Cardiovascular reactivity was significantly larger during planned and spontaneous relationship conflicts in naturalistic settings than during planned relationship conflicts in the laboratory. Similarly, associations with relationship and individual functioning variables were statistically significantly larger for cardiovascular data collected in naturalistic settings than the same data collected in the laboratory. Our findings suggest that cardiovascular reactivity during spousal conflict in naturalistic settings is statistically significantly different from that elicited in laboratory settings both in magnitude and in the pattern of associations with a wide range of inter‐ and intrapersonal variables. These differences in findings across laboratory and naturalistic physiological responses highlight the value of testing physiological phenomena across interaction contexts in romantic relationships.     

The Effects of Exploration on Preschoolers' Problem-Solving Ability

Specific contributions of exploration for divergent and convergent problem-solving ability in preschool children were investigated. Participants were identified as players or nonplayers based on naturalistic observations of free-play activities, and were assigned to either an exploration or nonexploration control condition prior to administration of two divergent and two convergent problem-solving tasks. No significant differences were found between the exploration and nonexploration groups on either divergent or convergent problem-solving tasks. Subjects in the exploration group, however, spent significantly less time in the related convergent problem-solving task than in the nonrelated convergent task. The player/nonplayer distinction was also nonsignificant.     

Reconciling Spiritual Values Conflicts for Counselors and Lesbian and Gay Clients

Counselors and lesbian and gay clients experience parallel values conflicts between religious beliefs/spirituality and sexual orientation. This article uses critical thinking to assist counselors to integrate religious/spiritual beliefs with professional ethical codes. Clients are assisted to integrate religious/spiritual beliefs with sexual orientation.     

Adolescents' knowledge of nuclear issues and the effects of nuclear war

Three hundred fifty-seven college students were surveyed to assess later adolescents' awareness of the status of nuclear arms development and possible effects of a nuclear war on people and the environment. Chi-square analyses were performed to determine whether the frequency of correct responses differed with regard to participants' sex, political orientation, and position toward the United States' possession of nuclear weapons. Results suggest that later adolescents are extremely uninformed regarding the current status of nuclear issues and the consequences of a nuclear war. These data, coupled with findings from previous studies reporting children's and adolescents' concerns and fears about nuclear war, indicate that there is a strong need to educate young people concerning nuclear issues.     

Recall accuracy and illusory memories: when more is less

In two experiments it was revealed that manipulations that increased recall of studied list items also increased false recall of theme-related, critical nonpresented words. In Experiment 1 subjects listened to a series of short word lists, each containing items associatively related to a theme, while engaging in either semantic or nonsemantic processing. On an immediate free recall test semantic processors demonstrated greater correct recall as well as more illusory memories of critical nonpresented items than nonsemantic processors. In Experiment 2, the short study lists were combined to form longer lists that were presented either blocked by theme or in a random presentation order. Retention interval was also varied as participants were tested either immediately, one week after, or three weeks after the study phase. Presenting the target items in a blocked, as opposed to random, format increased recall accuracy, but this was at the expense of a higher intrusion rate for theme-consistent items. Interestingly, the level of false memories was not affected by retention interval even though typical decrements in the recall of study items were observed over time. The results of these experiments highlight the persistence of the false memory effect, as well as pointing to several factors, primarily semantic processing, that may lead to the creation of false memories. Interpretations are offered within the theoretical frameworks of source monitoring and fuzzy trace theory.