Problem structuring aids for quantitative estimation

An important part of decision making in many contexts is the estimation of numerical values for uncertain quantities, such as the projected costs of a development project or the number of people who use illegal drugs. In previous research, estimation accuracy for such quantities was found to be improved by algorithmic decomposition. The present study examines (a) the estimation performance of individuals using extended algorithms in which component estimates are produced by multiple methods, and (b) the effectiveness of algorithms produced by individuals after receiving training in algorithmic decomposition. The extended algorithm approach yielded some improvement in estimation performance. Subjects trained in algorithmic decomposition were able to produce algorithms, the effectiveness of which were dependent upon the presence of misinformation about components of the quantity to be estimated. The results are discussed in terms of the information processing demands imposed by detailed problem structuring.     

Further evidence for Coren and Hakstian’s “Methodological implications of interaural correlation: Count heads not ears” and an alternative correction formula

Coren and Hakstian (1990) identified a serious methodological problem that arises in auditory research because of interaural correlation. When measures from both ears of the subjects are pooled together in an experimental design that assumes independence of measures, there can be spuriously high apparent statistical significance. The present paper provides further evidence in support of Coren and Hakstian’s argument and also derives a formula that effectively corrects inflated test statistics resulting from interaural correlation. This formula is a special case of a more general one that applies in many other experimental contexts in which nonindependence of measures is a problem. We found that statistical tests based on our formula have somewhat greater power to detect differences than the kind of correction method advocated by Coren and Hakstian.     

A NATURALISTIC THEORY OF ARCHAIC MORAL ORDERS

Abstract. Cultural evolution, producing group-level adaptations, is more problematic than the cultural evolution of individually confirmable skills, but it probably has occurred. The "conformist transmission," described by Boyd and Richerson (1985), leads local social units to become homogeneous in anadaptive, as well as adaptive, beliefs. The resulting intragroup homogeneity and inter-group heterogeneity makes possible a cultural selection of adaptive group ideologies.
All archaic urban, division-of-labor social organizations had to overcome aspects of human nature produced by biological evolution, due to the predicament of genetic competition among the cooperators. The universal norms found in archaic moral systems are seen as curbs to this human nature, reinforced by beliefs in invisible sanction systems and rewarding and punishing afterlives (as in heaven or reincarnation). Perhaps the ubiquity of lavishly wasteful royal funerals is to be explained as contributing to this function.     

Experiencing double-bind conflict: A semantic differential assessment of interaction perceptions

Four interaction-perception perspectives of the fictitious target of a double-bind conflict were provided by four groups of subjects. The perspectives included perceptions of a daughter about herself and her father (the double-bind source), and her estimates of his perceptions of both himself and her. As predicted, the target saw herself as weak but “good”, and as cooperative and highly frustrated, while attributing all the opposite characteristics to the source, who was seen as strong but “bad”, and uncooperative and not frustrated. Further, it was found that she believed he saw himself as strong and very good, but frustrated and moderately cooperative. These observations are consistent with a hypothesis that double-bind experiences result in frustration and mixed feelings toward one's self and the source of the dilemma. It was also concluded that the target's belief that her father would not recognize her weakness, nor her cooperativeness, nor her frustration, and would disinterestedly evaluate her as neither good nor bad resulted from the inconsistent and contradictory communications which had contributed to the double bind.     

Fear decrement to anxiety hierarchy items—Effects of stimulus intensity

The effects of hierarchy item intensity and duration of presentation on intra-item fear decrement were assessed with regard to systematic desensitization. Forty-eight color slides of snakes were scaled and ranked for anxiety value with the psychophysical technique of magnitude estimation by 30 female snake phobics using two response methods: verbal report and a non-verbal report instrument, the hand dynamometer. Seven test slides, spanning the scale range, were shown for 257 sec to 42 additional subjects who rated their fear level on 10 separate occasions using the hand dynamometer and verbal report. For all slides significant fear decrement occurred as a function of duration and the fear decrement across time was greater for slides of higher intensity. Negative exponential functions with similar slopes were found to fit the data for each of the slides, indicating that for each slide the same percentage of the total amount of fear decrement was lost per unit of time. The implications of these results and techniques are discussed for desensitization theory, research and therapeutic procedure.     

The phonetic effect in preschool children: The influence of overt rehearsal and verbal instructions

Preschoolers' serial matching of picture lists composed of either phonetically similar or unrelated items was compared under three types of conditions. The lower retention of phonetic lists had been used as an index of verbal mediation by Conrad (1971, 1972) who found that preschoolers did not show differential retention, and hence no verbal encoding, even when they were required to label overtly. This result was replicated and also obtained in a condition which emphasized the verbal aspects of the task. However, a significant phonetic effect and higher overall retention resulted from a condition which required overt, cumulative rehearsal. Alternative interpretations of the influence of rehearsal on the phonetic effect were offered.     

The effects of information and aspiration level on bargaining behavior

This paper examines a crucial problem facing a bargainer in interpersonal negotiation; should he seek additional information about an opponent's reward structure. The “information is weakness” hypothesis and the “reality of aspiration” hypothesis give conflicting recommendations concerning this question. An “information-aspiration” model is presented as an explanation of why the findings which give support to both positions are not necessarily contradictory. This model is tested in a 2 × 2 factorial design where 80 buyers bargained having either complete or incomplete information and low or high aspiration levels, against 80 sellers with incomplete information. In general the model was supported in that bargainers with low aspirations tended to gain strength with additional information, while those with high aspirations tended to lose strength with additional information.     

Learning models for a continuum of sensory states reexamined

Dorfman and Biderman evaluated an additive-operator learning model and some special cases of this model on data from a signal-detection experiment. They found that Kac's pure error-correction model gave the poorest fit of the special models when the predictions were generated from the maximum likelihood estimates and the initial cutoffs were set at an a priori value rather than estimated. First, this paper presents tests of an asymptotic theorem by Norman, which provide strong support for Kac's model. On the final 100 trials, every subject but one gave probability matching, and the response propcrtions appropriately normed were approximately normally distributed with variance π(1 ? π). Further analyses of the Dorfman-Biderman data based upon maximum likelihood and likelihood-ratio tests suggest that Kac's model gives a relatively good, but imperfect fit to the data. Some possible explanations for the apparent contradiction between the results of these new analyses and the original findings of Dorfman and Biderman were explored. The investigations led to the proposal that there may be nonsystematic, random drifts in the decision criterion after correct responses as well as after errors. The hypothesis gives a minor modification of the conclusions from Norman's theorem for Kac's model. It gives asymptotic probability matching for every subject, but a larger asymptotic variance than π(1 ? π), which agrees with the data. The paper also presents good Monte Carlo justification for the use of maximum likelihood and likelihood-ratio tests with these additive learning models. Results from Thomas' nonparametric test of error correction are presented, which are inconclusive. Computation of Thomas' p statistic on the Monte Carlo simulations showed that it is quite variable and insensitive to small deviations from error correction.     

Relational judgments with remembered stimuli

Two experiments investigating the effect of the direction of a relational judgment on the speed of the judgment are reported. In both experiments, college students required more time to select the smaller of a pair of large animals than to select the larger. Conversely, the smaller of a pair of small animals was selected more quickly than was the larger. The magnitude of this “cross-over effect” was fully graded, increasing regularly with extremity, but the variability of the response times in each direction was unrelated to extremity. Individual animals were classified as “small” or “large” with almost perfect consistency. This pattern of results is used to evaluate several models of relational judgment; of these, the congruency model is shown to be inconsistent with these data.