The use of decomposition in probability assessments of continuous variables

In this study, decomposition is used as a tool for the assessment of continuous probability distributions. The goal of using decomposition is to obtain better calibrated probability distributions by expressing a variable as a known function of several component variables. Three target quantities were used in the study. Each was assessed holistically and using two different decompositions. Thus, each subject provided three distributions for each of the three target quantities. The recomposed assessments were compared to holistic assessments. The distributions obtained using decomposition were found to be much better calibrated than those obtained holistically. Two methods of aggregating distributions from multiple subjects were also examined. One involves aggregating (averaging) distributions before recomposing while the second method involves recomposing and then averaging distributions for the target variable. The second method was found to be slightly better, although both showed better calibration than was found in the individual assessments.     

Testing message diffusion in harmonic logistic curves

The growth of a population of knowers of a message was studied to test a human interactance hypothesis. The conditions investigated involvedpeople interacting in time, with the population pairing off randomly (i.e., determined by many, small, different influences) and transferring an attribute (i.e., an all-or-none act) at either a steady rate or a waning rate, subsequent to the originating stimulus. The mathematical expressions for these pre-conditions were the differential equations for the linear logistic for steady acting and the harmonic logistic for waning acting. Variant forms of these curves were developed. Two exploratory experiments, or pretests, comprised launching a coffee slogan in a town and imitating a badge wearer in a boys' camp. Since the activity rate waned harmonically in both cases, the harmonic logistic fit best in both the town and the camp as expected by the hypothesis.A paper read before Section K sponsored by the Committee on Social Physics of the AAAS Conference in Boston, December 30, 1953. This research was supported in part by the United States Air Force under Contract AF 33(038)-27522, monitored by the Human Resources Research Institute (now, Officer Education Research Laboratory, Air Force Personnel and Training Research Center), Air Research and Development Command, Maxwell Air Force Base, Alabama. Permission is granted for reproduction, translation, publication and distribution in part and in whole by or for the United States Government.     

Moving thoughts make for moving targets: Capturing time-sensitive effects in global/local processing

ABSTRACT

We examined the time-course of global/local processing with the goal of describing average change over time and individual differences in that change, namely, variability in level (intercept) and magnitude (slope) of change. To do so, we probed global/local processing across a broad time-course so that effects of time may be estimated from a randomly sampled set of time-points from the “true” population of time-points. Results showed that, on average, processing transitioned from global to local dominance; variation around this average, however, pointed to an ebb-and-flow in dominance rather than strict linear change.     

Negative numbers eliminate,but do not reverse,the attentional SNARC effect

Three experiments are reported examining whether the presentation of irrelevant negative numbers at central fixation interacts with attentional orienting beyond fixation. It has been previously shown that number perception influences spatial attention, with the presentation of spatially nonpredictive numbers resulting in the allocation of attention to the left when the number is low (e.g., 1 or 2) and to the right when the number is high (e.g., 8 or 9). In the present experiment, it is examined whether this attentional spatial numerical association of response codes (SNARC) effect is influenced by the presentation of negative numbers, which should have spatial properties that are in direct opposition to their positive counterparts (e.g., −1 or −2 would be considered high numbers relative to −8 or −9, which would be considered low numbers). Though the presentation of negative numbers does not lead to a reversal of the attentional SNARC effect, it does lead to an elimination of the effect, providing insight into how the attentional SNARC effect develops.     

Shift and deviate: Saccades reveal that shifts of covert attention evoked by trained spatial stimuli are obligatory

The premotor theory of attention predicts that motor movements, including manual movements and eye movements, are preceded by an obligatory shift of attention to the location of the planned response. We investigated whether the shifts of attention evoked by trained spatial cues (e.g., Dodd & Wilson, 2009) are obligatory by using an extreme prediction of the premotor theory: If individuals are trained to associate a color cue with a manual movement to the left or right, the shift of attention evoked by the color cue should also influence eye movements in an unrelated task. Participants were trained to associate an irrelevant color cue with left/right space via a training session in which directional responses were made. Experiment 1 showed that, posttraining, vertical saccades deviated in the direction of the trained response, despite the fact that the color cue was irrelevant. Experiment 2 showed that latencies of horizontal saccades were shorter when an eye movement had to be made in the direction of the trained response. These results demonstrate that the shifts of attention evoked by trained stimuli are obligatory, in addition to providing support for the premotor theory and for a connection between the attentional, motor, and oculomotor systems.     

The effect of previous trial type on inhibition of return

Inhibition of return (IOR) refers to the finding that targets appearing at previously cued locations are more slowly responded to than targets appearing at previously uncued locations when a relatively long temporal interval occurs between the cue and target. This experiment was conducted to determine whether the magnitude of IOR is influenced by the type of preceding trial (cued or uncued) and/or the location of the cue/target on the previous trial. Although no effect of cue/target location is observed, there was a marked effect of previous trial type, as IOR was greater following an uncued trial relative to a cued trial. This effect was attributable to differences in the response time as a function of previous trial type: specifically, participants were faster to respond to cued and uncued trials when the previous trial type was identical.     

Negative truths and truthmaker principles

This paper argues that a consideration of the problem of providing truthmakers for negative truths undermines truthmaker theory. Truthmaker theorists are presented with an uncomfortable dilemma. Either they must take up the challenge of providing truthmakers for negative truths, or else they must explain why negative truths are exceptions to the principle that every truth must have a truthmaker. The first horn is unattractive since the prospects of providing truthmakers for negative truths do not look good neither absences, nor totality states of affairs, nor Graham Priest and J.C. Beall’s ‘polarities’ (Beall, 2000; Priest, 2000) are up to the job. The second horn, meanwhile, is problematic because restricting the truthmaker principle to atomic truths, or weakening it to the thesis that truth supervenes on being, undercuts truthmaker theory’s original motivation. The paper ends by arguing that truthmaker theory is, in any case, an under-motivated doctrine because the groundedness of truth can be explained without appeal to the truthmaker principle. This leaves us free to give the ommonsensical and deflationary explanation of negative truths that common-sense suggests.