Banking on a bad bet. Probability matching in risky choice is linked to expectation generation

Probability matching is the tendency to match choice probabilities to outcome probabilities in a binary prediction task. This tendency is a long-standing puzzle in the study of decision making under risk and uncertainty, because always predicting the more probable outcome across a series of trials (maximizing) would yield greater predictive accuracy and payoffs. In three experiments, we tied the predominance of probability matching over maximizing to a generally adaptive cognitive operation that generates expectations regarding the aggregate outcomes of an upcoming sequence of events. Under conditions designed to diminish the generation or perceived applicability of such expectations, we found that the frequency of probability-matching behavior dropped substantially and maximizing became the norm.     

Who you could have known: divine hiddenness,epistemic counterfactuals,and the recalcitrant nature of natural theology

We argue there is a deep conflict in Paul Moser’s work on divine hiddenness (DH). Moser’s treatment of DH adopts a thesis we call SEEK: DH often results from failing to seek God on His terms. One way in which people err, according to Moser, is by trusting arguments of traditional natural theology to lead to filial knowledge of God. We argue that Moser’s SEEK thesis commits him to the counterfactual ACCESS: had the atheist sought after God in harmony with how God reveals himself, she would have had access to filial knowledge of God. By failing to incorporate arguments or propositional evidence for God’s existence, Moser’s account leaves the doubting seeker without any evidential reason to think that either SEEK or ACCESS is true. Without this rational motivation in place, the doubting seeker is unlikely to seek after God in the way ACCESS describes. We argue that natural theology provides an evidential epistemic aid to motivate persons to seek God the way ACCESS describes. Thus, Moser is mistaken. Such arguments can be evidentially helpful in coming to know God. In conclusion, we explain how our reply naturally fits how we form and maintain trusting interpersonal relationships with others.     

Behavioral Activation for a Breast Cancer Patient with Major Depression and Coexistent Personality Disorder

Behavioral activation is an empirically validated treatment for depression, with recent applications toward other psychological and medical conditions. However, modification to the treatment protocol may be necessary when symptoms, environment, or personality necessitate. This feasibility study applied Behavioral Activation Treatment for Depression (BATD) in a case of a woman with recurrent major depression and obsessive–compulsive personality disorder (OCPD) undergoing breast cancer treatment. A quasi-experimental design was used, comparing supportive psychotherapy (while she received radiation therapy) followed by eight sessions of BATD. Treatment was designed in accordance with patient and therapist goals of increasing exercise, decreasing fatigue, and reducing interference due to perfectionistic behaviors. The patient exhibited resistance to initiation of BATD, related to symptoms of OCPD, which necessitated modification of treatment strategies and scheduling. Following BATD, the patient reported a significant reduction in depressive symptoms, physical problems, and role limitations—gains not observed following supportive therapy. In addition, she demonstrated less psychological rigidity and interference due to OCPD symptoms within the therapeutic relationship and other interpersonal relationships. Consistent with previous research, results indicate BATD may effectively treat individuals with complex clinical presentations that include personality disorder pathology. In addition, methods of modification to BATD are discussed, as well as future directions for research in this area.     

Simulating demand for cigarettes among pregnant women: A Low‐Risk method for studying vulnerable populations

A substantive obstacle to experimentally studying cigarette smoking and use of other tobacco products in pregnant women is the risk of adverse effects on mother and fetus from experimenter administration of the product of interest. The purpose of this study is to investigate bypassing that obstacle by using behavioral economic simulation tasks. In the present study we used the Cigarette Purchase Task (CPT) to simulate changes in demand for hypothetical cigarettes as a function of varying cigarette prices. Participants were 95 pregnant women who completed the CPT prior to participation in a smoking‐cessation trial. Aggregate and individual participant demand varied as an orderly function of price and those changes were well fitted by an exponential equation. Demand also varied in correspondence to two well‐validated predictors of individual differences in smoking cessation among pregnant women (cigarettes smoked per day, pre‐pregnancy quit attempts). Moreover, CPT indices were more effective than these two conventional variables in predicting individual differences in whether women made a quit attempt during the current pregnancy. Overall, these results represent a promising step in demonstrating the validity and utility of the CPT for experimentally examining demand for cigarettes, and potentially other tobacco and nicotine delivery products, among pregnant women.     

The verdictive organization of desire

Deliberation often begins with the question ‘What do I want to do?’ rather than a question about what one ought to do. This paper takes that question at face value, as a question about which of one’s desires is strongest, which sometimes guides action. The paper aims to explain which properties of a desire make that desire strong, in the sense of ‘strength’ relevant to this deliberative question. The paper argues that one’s judgment about one wants most will sometimes play a verdictive role, partially determining what the agent most wants, and so making itself true.     

Effectiveness of a short audiovisual emotion recognition training program in adults

The ability to recognize emotions from others’ nonverbal behavior (emotion recognition ability, ERA) is crucial to successful social functioning. However, currently no self-administered ERA training for non-clinical adults covering multiple sensory channels exists. We conducted four studies in a lifespan sample of participants in the laboratory and online (total N?=?531) to examine the effectiveness of a short computer-based training for 14 different emotions using audiovisual clips of emotional expressions. Results showed that overall, young and middle-aged participants that had received the training scored significantly higher on facial, vocal, and audiovisual emotion recognition than the control groups. The training effect for audiovisual ERA persisted over 4 weeks. In older adults (59–90 years), however, the training had no effect. The new, brief training could be useful in applied settings such as professional training, at least for younger and middle-aged adults. In older adults, improving ERA might require a longer and more interactive intervention.     

Ambivalent desires and the problem with reduction

Ambivalence is most naturally characterized as a case of conflicting desires. In most cases, an agent’s intrinsic desires conflict contingently: there is some possible world in which both desires would be satisfied. This paper argues, though, that there are cases in which intrinsic desires necessarily conflict—i.e., the desires are not jointly satisfiable in any possible world. Desiring a challenge for its own sake is a paradigm case of such a desire. Ambivalence of this sort in an agent’s desires creates special problems for the project of reducing all facts about an agent’s desires to facts about his or her preferences over options. If this reductive project fails, there is reason to suspect that the Decision Theory cannot give us a complete theory of Humean rationality.     

Deficits in Attention to Emotional Stimuli Distinguish Youth with Severe Mood Dysregulation from Youth with Bipolar Disorder

Studying attention in the context of emotional stimuli may aid in differentiating pediatric bipolar disorder (BD) from severe mood dysregulation (SMD). SMD is characterized by chronic irritability, arousal, and hyper-reactivity; SMD youth frequently receive a BD diagnosis although they do not meet DSM-IV criteria for BD because they lack manic episodes. We compared 57 BD (14.4 ± 2.9 years old, 56% male), 41 SMD (12.6 ± 2.6 years old, 66% male), and 33 control subjects (13.7 ± 2.5 years old, 52% male) using the Emotional Interrupt task, which examines how attention is impacted by positive, negative, or neutral distracters. We compared reaction time (RT) and accuracy and calculated attention interference scores by subtracting performance on neutral trials from emotional trials. Between-group analyses indicated that SMD subjects had significantly reduced attention interference from emotional distracters relative to BD and control subjects. Thus, attention in SMD youth was not modulated by emotional stimuli. This blunted response in SMD youth may contribute to their affective and behavioral dysregulation.