Calibration accuracy of a judgmental process that predicts the commercial success of new product ideas

We examine the accuracy of forecasts of the commercial potential of new product ideas by experts at an Inventor's Assistance Program (IAP). Each idea is evaluated in terms of 37 attributes or cues, which are subjectively rated and intuitively combined by an IAP expert to arrive at a forecast of the idea's commercialization prospects. Data regarding actual commercialization outcomes for 559 new product ideas were collected to examine the accuracy of the IAP forecasts. The intensive evaluation of each idea conducted by the IAP produces forecasts that accurately rank order the ideas in terms of their probability of commercialization. The focus of the evaluation process on case‐specific evidence that distinguishes one idea from another, however, and the corresponding neglect of aggregate considerations such as the base rate (BR) and predictability of commercialization for new product ideas in general, yields forecasts that are systematically miscalibrated in terms of their correspondence to the actual probability of commercialization. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Infants perceive human point-light displays as solid forms

While five-month-old infants show orientation-specific sensitivity to changes in the motion and occlusion patterns of human point-light displays, it is not known whether infants are capable of binding a human representation to these displays. Furthermore, it has been suggested that infants do not encode the same physical properties for humans and material objects. To explore these issues we tested whether infants would selectively apply the principle of solidity to upright human displays. In the first experiment infants aged six and nine months were repeatedly shown a human point-light display walking across a computer screen up to 10 times or until habituated. Next, they were repeatedly shown the walking display passing behind an in-depth representation of a table, and finally they were shown the human display appearing to pass through the table top in violation of the solidity of the hidden human form. Both six- and nine-month-old infants showed significantly greater recovery of attention to this final phase. This suggests that infants are able to bind a solid vertical form to human motion. In two further control experiments we presented displays that contained similar patterns of motion but were not perceived by adults as human. Six- and nine-month-old infants did not show recovery of attention when a scrambled display or an inverted human display passed through the table. Thus, the binding of a solid human form to a display in only seems to occur for upright human motion. The paper considers the implications of these findings in relation to theories of infants' developing conceptions of objects, humans and animals.     

Effects of a Fluency-Building Program on the Reading Performance of Low-Achieving Second and Third Grade Students

This study evaluated the effects of a fluency-based reading program with 15 second and third grade students and 15 matched controls. Gains in oral reading fluency on untrained CBM probes were evaluated using a matched-pairs group-comparison design, whereas immediate and two-day retention gains in oral reading fluency on trained passages were evaluated using an adapted changing criterion design. Increases in WRCM due to training and number of trainings to criterion were also evaluated as a function of pre-training fluency levels. Results showed statistically significant gains on dependent measures for the treatment group, mean increases of two to three grade levels in passages mastered, and an optimal pre-training fluency range of 41-60 WRCM. Implications for fluency-based reading programs are discussed.     

What Are We Doing When We Translate from Quantitative Models?

Although quantitative analysis (in which behavior principles are defined in terms of equations) has become common in basic behavior analysis, translational efforts often examine everyday events through the lens of narrative versions of laboratory-derived principles. This approach to translation, although useful, is incomplete because equations may convey concepts that are difficult to capture in words. To support this point, we provide a nontechnical introduction to selected aspects of quantitative analysis; consider some issues that translational investigators (and, potentially, practitioners) confront when attempting to translate from quantitative models; and discuss examples of relevant translational studies. We conclude that, where behavior-science translation is concerned, the quantitative features of quantitative models cannot be ignored without sacrificing conceptual precision, scientific and practical insights, and the capacity of the basic and applied wings of behavior analysis to communicate effectively.     

Indirect perceptual realism and demonstratives

I defend indirect perceptual realism against two recent and related charges to it offered by A. D. Smith and P. Snowdon, both stemming from demonstrative reference involving indirect perception. The needed aspects of the theory of demonstratives are not terribly new, but their connection to these objections has not been discussed. The groundwork for my solution emerges from considering normal cases of indirect perception (e.g., seeing something depicted on a television) and examining the role this indirectness plays in demonstrative assertions. I argue that indirectness routinely if not typically plays a justificatory role in such judgements, and not a semantic one, and that the same can be said of such judgements when considered within the indirect realist framework. The denial of this, on my analysis, is essential to the criticisms of Snowdon and Smith. The discussion is extended to include scenarios involving the sorts of misconceptions Smith employs.

USING MICROSOFT OFFICE EXCEL® 2007 TO CONDUCT GENERALIZED MATCHING ANALYSES

The generalized matching equation is a robust and empirically supported means of analyzing relations between reinforcement and behavior. Unfortunately, no simple task analysis is available to behavior analysts interested in using the matching equation to evaluate data in clinical or applied settings. This technical article presents a task analysis for the use of Microsoft Excel to analyze and plot the generalized matching equation. Using a data‐based case example and a step‐by‐step guide for completing the analysis, these instructions are intended to promote the use of quantitative analyses by researchers with little to no experience in quantitative analyses or the matching law.     

Men’s Empathic Bias, Empathic Inaccuracy, and Sexual Harassment

This study investigated the relationship between men’s sexual harassment of women and men accuracy and bias when inferring women’s critical or rejecting thoughts and feelings. Eighty married men from the Arlington, Texas, USA community participated. Results indicated that men’s sexual harassment behavior is negatively related to men’s accuracy in determining when women have critical or rejecting thoughts or feelings. Further, men’s sexual harassment behavior is positively related to men’s bias to overattribute criticism and rejection. This pattern of findings suggests that male sexual harassers tend to over-infer women’s criticism and rejection and make these inferences at the wrong times. These findings also support recent speculation that men’s sexual harassment of women is related to aggression rather than seduction.     

Gender Differences in the Relationship Between Academic Self-Concept and Self-Reported Depressed Mood in School Children

In light of literature highlighting gender differences related to academic self-concept and depressed mood, this study explored the contributions of academic self-concept in individual subject areas to self-reported depressed mood in 86 elementary-age boys and girls from a province in central Canada. Results indicated that academic self-concept explained 68% and 62% of the variance in self-reported depressed mood for boys and girls, respectively. Separate analyses conducted for boys and girls indicated disparate predictive models that cohered with gender stereotypic self-perceptions: math for boys and reading for girls. Interestingly, physical education emerged as a significant contributor for boys and girls. Results are discussed in terms of the importance of addressing the relationship between children’s social-emotional self-perceptions and academic self-concept within domain-specific lenses.     

An empirical and computational investigation of perceiving and remembering event temporal relations

Events have beginnings, ends, and often overlap in time. A major question is how perceivers come to parse a stream of multimodal information into meaningful units and how different event boundaries may vary event processing. This work investigates the roles of these three types of event boundaries in constructing event temporal relations. Predictions were made based on how people would err according to the beginning state, end state, and overlap heuristic hypotheses. Participants viewed animated events that include all the logical possibilities of event temporal relations, and then made temporal relation judgments. The results showed that people make use of the overlap between events and take into account the ends and beginnings, but they weight ends more than beginnings. Neural network simulations showed a self-organized distinction when learning temporal relations between events with overlap versus those without.     

Self-regulation and the hypothesis of experience-based selection: Investigating indirect conscious control

The assumption that the contents of our conscious visual experience directly control our fine-tuned, real-time motor activity has been challenged by neurological and psychophysical evidence that suggest the two processes work semi-independently of each other. Clark [Clark, A. (2001). Visual experience and motor action: Are the bonds too tight? The Philosophical Review, 110, 495–519; Clark, A. (2002). Is seeing all it seems? Action, reason and the grand illusion. Journal of Consciousness Studies, 9, 181–202; Clark, A. (2006). Vision as dance? Three challenges for sensori-motor contingency theory. PSYCHE, 12 (1). Available from http://www.psyche.cs.monash.edu.au] argues that such evidence implies a more indirect relationship between conscious visual experience and motor-control where the function of visual consciousness is not to control action but to select what actions are to be controlled. In this paper, I argue that this type of dynamic also exists at the wider level of self-regulation where conscious intent appears to indirectly control the enactment of the intended behaviour. I argue that by drawing parallels between Clark’s proposed dynamic and self-regulation, the former is not only bolstered by a previously unrecognised source of support but our understanding of the latter can help to further elucidate Clark’s proposed mechanism of indirect conscious control.